Alan
Can you explain how the 'phases' of the moon can directly relate to the flyby's gravitationally, which were on varying trajectories and planes?
As you may recall I'm also a yacht master so have to predict tides all the time from astronometric data. (flow rates, heights and times are all critical). The sun/moon model does very well to first and second order, By the time we get to higher orders many other trivial effects come into play. The main ones are air pressure and wind, in fact when combined and with neap tides and weak flow these can become first order! They are also only approximate, coming within Navier Stokes uncertainties.
Even taking a single 'Port' and wide database there is then indeed still room for other, if quite trivial, effects. The other planets are small and less dense. I've done only approximations but they certainly seem to come within the category 'trivial'. I'd be interested in any other data you have.
As far as Flyby's go, they fit a model including our planet's dense bow shock. This includes the most recent one which had almost zero effect. The moons potential is of course allowed for (have you checked where the moon was then wrt it's track?)
I'm a very practical bloke and remain to be convinced by hard data, accurate application and logical interpretation. Do send such. Simply correlating flyby dates with 'moon phases' does not seem able to reproduce what is already done with great precision.
Peter