Hi Michael,
Yes, lots of points of agreement. But let's take the disagreements one point at a time.
First, you bring up the block universe. This is a red-herring that has little to do with NSU, LSU, or anything directly related. In my mind, the arguments against the block universe (arguments for presentism, or the growing block) are simply are not consistent with SR, GR, or how we parameterize physical events (see my post to Armin above). I know that lots of philosophers (and some physicists) seem to think that presentism or the growing-block is potentially viable, but the burden of proof is on them, not me. Smolin is trying to change physics to add a "now", which is fine, but physics does not currently have a "now". And most of the anti-block arguments sneak in multiple time dimensions in practically every sentence. Even the way you phrased it --" But from this it doesn't follow that the future is equally real or 'already there' ", is using the word "already" that treats time as a subject while using the word "future" that treats time as an object. Those are two different times (the time at which the future is discussed, and the time of the future in question), ergo one needs a model with two time dimensions to even have a physics-based discussion about presentism.
I'm confused about your sentence that reads: " As far as we can see, someone could (and they do) still believe in NSU/reject block universe and adopt all your other suggestions." This baffles me, and leads me to think I didn't write a very good essay, given that my primary suggestion is to reject NSU. And while I maintain that ordinary NSU physics implies a block universe, LSU *certainly* implies a block universe. What do future boundary conditions mean to someone who doesn't think the future is "real"? Who is "someone"?
For your next big point, I grant that I have no detailed model, just some of the pieces. You guys are way ahead of me on that front. (Actually, I have a beautifully simple model (hinted at the end of my essay), but I'm having a devilish time working out the math, so I don't yet know if it generates the right probabilities.) I also would like to see how my (future) model deals with all these things, but it's always nice to map out potential show-stoppers before one gets that far. In my experience, all of the proposed show-stoppers come from people implicitly assuming NSU without realizing it. Therefore I wrote this essay to help lay out the fact that NSU is a pervasive assumption, not a necessary logical position.
You write: " you still assume there would always be a 3+1 type explanation of a NM sort between the measurements, you just have to work backwards to get it.", but that's not quite right. In an LSU model, once you work backward to fill in the 4D spacetime, you can translate that 4D description to a 3+1D *description* of what is going on between measurements. But I do not think it will be "Newtonian", in that it will not always be a solution to some master differential equation , and I do not think it will be an "explanation", just a movie-like description of what actually happened. For an *explanation*, one will have to consider the whole 4D-LSU picture. Hopefully this makes it clearer how much difference there is between the NSU and the sort of LSU that I envision.
You end that part with "Also notice that the use of future boundary conditions doesn't require that QM systems have definite worldlines and the only reason to assume they must is some sort of NSU prejudice." First of all, you know I'm looking for field descriptions, not particle descriptions, so "worldlines" is a bit misleading. But I'm not sure what you're getting at, exactly... asking the universe to have some particular reality between measurements doesn't seem NSU or LSU, just *realist*. Again, that intermediate solution need not, in general, solve a differential equation.
Finally, you seem to imply that your RBW gives up "more of the NSU-type" picture than I want to myself, but I think you're conflating much of the realism of standard classical physics with the Newtonian Schema, as defined in my essay. Classical physics works on a continuum; does this make the continuum in any way part of the Newtonian Schema? No -- see the definition of NSU in section I. (After all, my main example of the NS is a computer, which are typically digital!) I grant that RBW gives up more of standard physics than I want to, but let's not throw out perfectly valid concepts unless we need to. What quantum phenomena force a spacetime-realist to give up is the NSU, not spacetime itself. Maybe spacetime will have to go as well, but I'm never going to make that leap without first undertaking a much better exploration of the spacetime-realist-LSU landscape.
Best, Ken