Hi Matt,
Excellent essay! I never know quite what to make of it when someone carefully reasons out an argument that (in the end) agrees with my reasoning, but clearly is far more detailed and careful than my own considerations. Did I really just get lucky through sloppy reasoning? Are both arguments merely rationalizations, trying to justify a previously-held common conclusion? Or had I really worked out a parallel, simpler argument?
In your case, at least, I'm pretty confident it's not the middle option... But I'm going back and forth between the other two.
To the extent I think I might have a parallel argument, it basically revolves around the concept of "scientific explanation". By the end of section 6, after all, I think that your argument has basically boiled down to 1) noncontextuality as a necessary explanation for the Born rule, and 2) physical reality as a necessary explanation for noncontextuality. If I'm right, then the simpler, parallel argument would be 3) physical reality as a necessary explanation for the Born rule (and for that matter, any observed correlations in our universe). I guess the question then for you is this: Is there *any* set of observable (and reproducible) correlations that wouldn't need to have an explanation grounded in a physical reality? I would instinctively say no, but am curious as to your take on this.
My only complaint is that you threw too large of a bone to the "It from Bit" concept at the very end... If classical ontology is put together in our heads, then it's not really an "it", is it? :-)
Now, you just need to write up that general definition of contextuality you were telling me about, so that you can better explain the seeming disconnect between the (non)contextuality of "value assignments" and "probability assignments"!
Cheers!
Ken
PS; After just reading a few of your responses to the above questions, I'm guessing that your answer to my above question will be that it depends whether one is a "realist" or not! So maybe I did just 'get lucky' by assuming realism from the outset. I applaud your efforts to convert anti-realists, as I don't seem to have the faintest clue where to begin on that front...