Sabine

Thank you so much for your note. Now I see your comment "No, the major challenge,..., is to convert these ideas into action."

I have "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization" but have only scanned it. The same with his "Environment, Scarcity, and Violence". I omitted a reference to them because he makes things a bit more complex than they are, in my opinion. That is why I went with Tainter. For example, I agree with Friedman that the Federal Reserve was a big mistake. I suppose he would call me a "neo-Malthusisn". I did like his stages of denial, some of his income gap comments, and the chapter of "why don't we face reality". You can see examples of the latter in these essays.

All his tectonic stresses and conditions in Tainter are present today and have been for a long time. The limited space left me with commenting, "However, the collapse is a failure of the society's organization to adapt to nature and to the changing conditions." That is, he is only describing some of the natural conditions imposed on humanity all th time.

Let me take this opportunity to address another idea I think you are tending toward. Almost all the essays have suggestions with little chance of happening. My last comment "The barons are organizing." suggest the required action is already happening. Look at the conditions that forced the barons to action. They are all present in the US today. Many today are already taking action toward a thing like the Magna Carta that I suggest is a new constitution. The TEA party (they want a smaller Federal Government) is becoming stronger. The secession movement is small but growing. Many are writing books and article s suggesting constitutional amendments (Friedman, M. R. Levin, R. E. Barnet, etc.). The path toward the kind of constitutional change is already happening. I hope the leaders of today are as smart as the leaders in 1787.

John,

How does corruption fit into your national organization?

Corruption is actionably defined as: unethical allocation, or

in legal consideration, illegal allocation

abuse of allocation typically involves resources and/or opportunities

Corruption acts on opportunities quickly and then entrenches itself to prevent fair access to resources and/or opportunities.

In a natural state, anyone not born into a affluent family is to be denied access to all opportunities except those that are offered to them by affluent families. This is slave labor and indenturement.

The natural tendency to fight against oppression is war.

    Iran is different than most countries that fight against oppression. Typically groups of the oppressed would start killing off the families of the oppressors. In Iran, the mafia government kills and maims families that speak against the government. Most recently, 300 young men were blinded because they spoke out against the government diverting the river to supply another city where a governor had family. The agricultural area is drying up as the river fed aquifers are emptied.

    The people of Iran have been making slow, unarmed changes at great personal expense. But they have had a long history of being occupied. The British, the French, and now Saudi Arabia backed Iranian thugs.

    Many billions are stolen out of the Iranian taxes, and the Government officials steal on an on-going bases. The intellectual people have learned to fight oppression through integration. The oppressed families eventually have representatives within the families of the oppressors. Fighting corruption is done from inside the oppressor's families.

    Eventually, oppressors are replaced by people who want economic prosperity fostered by ethical collaboration. They want to live in a safe society, not fearing for their family's lives.

    But it takes time to oust self-serving people that have low regard for anyone else, including themselves and their family.

    Some are forced into corruption as a means to make changes slowly. Over time they support their family, and make incremental improvements for their country.

    The Iranian people have never raised weapons against its oppressors. As a result, the government had to create a mafia militia to do its dirty work because the formal military refuses to attack its own people.

    Many hundreds of thousands of Iranian people have lost their lives in fighting oppression. But this has been an alternative to war.

    James

    I presume you are talking about if this essay's suggestion is adopted. The problem is war between states that is very destructive. Note the nation constitution is not cast in stone in my mind. But I think the military command belongs in the nation (Federal) control. So the state pays the nation government to keep that military. The military is used to prevent war between states or at least side with the defender. So the offender must pay for the national military and his own - a very untenable position.

    I also propose the nation is out of the welfare, housing, food provision, etc. business. The state is responsible for these individual relation things. So how much can a state spend on military if it has to take care of its people? Look at international affairs now. The violent groups in Africa and mideast are getting food supplies (humanitarian aid) from the US. This allows them as a society to buy guns that are used to further war against their neighbors and population. Suppose they were not getting humanitarian aid, would they care for their people? I think probably not in which case their support would either move or die. If they do care for their own, they would not be buying guns. Either way, the practice would end. Would the human cost including war be greater or lesser to cease the humanitarian aid. I think less - a lot less.

    I seems you are talking of civil war - within a state. I suggest that is states business. I look at the panorama of slavery in the US. We can see the whole thing play out over 200 years. The idea of the Federal interfering inside the state was the whole issue. First the Southern states wanted slaves returned from northern states and got the Federal government to issue laws to Northern states. Then the Southern states left the union and a large civil war between states erupted (lots left out - but this must be short).

    If a state wants to spend a large portion of its budget in corruption and oppressive measures, let it. It will soon fail as businesses and people flee. Perhaps some people would want to go and help the oppressed. But the other states and the Federal government must not. It takes only a small percentage of people to flee to cause major problems for a state. Today, the problem is the state gets outside help which props up the corrupt. Example, Pakastan and other mideast countries receive a great deal of aid from the US.

    Iran is no exception. Remember the history. The US supported the corruption (the Shah) for decades. The people arose and ejected the US. Later, when the new government proved no better, the US helped the government fight against the rebels - the US supported the corruption. If we had not done that, the Iranian government would be friendlier now decades later. We supported the oppression for decades.

    Now, the Iranian people are in a pickle. They may flee with difficulty. Business may not invest. The government is continuing to get aid despite the embargo. Of course, the reaction of the US to the breakdown of the social structure as a result of the embargo has been shameful.

    How long can the Iranian government survive without the outside aid?

    I'm sure that many of the suggested states will have policies that some individuals will find objectionable. But if we have learned nothing else from Britian and France from 300 years ago, we should learn that interference in another's affairs is expensive, futile, and the results are opposite to those intended. The US wanted trading partners in the mideast, we financed oppressors, we are draining our treasure, and we reaped hatred and war.

    Yes. It takes time once the bad has been supported and grown. Better to let the bad die early rather than be propped up.

    Thanks for your comment.

    Dear John C Hadge,

    I like the general approach to the problems of physics. I do not fully agree with the author. Nevertheless, an interesting article.

    Regards,

    Murat Asgatovich Gaisin

    7 days later

    Dear John,

    I was rereading your essay and would like to make some remarks:

    Religion gives a knowledge that cannot be proven, so it is not the scientific knowledge in my opinion.

    The future may not give us a "theory" of EVERYTHING but an "understanding of how everything is interconnected, which does not mean that each part has the same "formula's" .

    The current society is bound by "direct information" for every unit of the society, we can now organize loans for projects through "crowd funding" and the same goes for parties but also for decisions made by governments, so you could say that the influence of the individual at this side has grown but as we are now with so much the influence seems to diminish, so the balance maybe the same, I do not have numbers on that. But the collapse of societies is always ruled by its governors egoism , and this egoism is very soon exposed by the information techniques of today...

    Through "dualism" reproduction is realized. Our whole reality is realized through this principle of heat an cold, plus and minus. We can ask ourselves how we will survive this short term (even billions of years are relatively short term) creation. In my essay : "STEERING THE FUTURE OF CONSCIOUSNESS" i am trying to give indications of understanding and mastering these mega-times.

    Indeed the morality of the individuals that are the components of our reality and that have always to struggle for survival because of the dualistic essence of this reality is THE important factor for the character of our society. The moral of "Eat or to be eaten" is not a positive approach but is strongly embedded in all forms of living (as you also mention).

    Any new constitution is a result from a changing mentality...

    So after a better read I must conclude that your opinion is valid but is of no use when we cannot change the human consciousness, and even find a way out of the "Eat or being Eaten" and within this structure of humanity, even with its total information technique this is a very hard thing...

    So I hope that you can spare now some time like I did and read the solutions I am proposing.

    all the best

    Wilhelmus

      WW

      "Religion gives a knowledge that cannot be proven, so it is not the scientific knowledge in my opinion."

      Of course religion is not science. That is why I listed it separately in the first words of the essay. I'm not sure where you are going, but science is not really "proven" either. Hypotheses are either rejected or not rejected. Therefore, an observation may be not rejected by several models.

      Religion offers morals for society. The success of religious knowledge is the long-term survival of its adherents. Religion offers hope. Whereas, science understanding offers predictability. Our science is weak on the predictability of social actions. I also offer the idea that if the social structure is weak, then the science doesn't help. Note the African tribes killing each other. The only thing stopping them from using the science of food production is their political instability. A society needs both morals and science.

      The idea labeled the "Theory of Everything" is somewhat defined as to the problems it must solve. Is it a misnomer? You betcha. So?

      "But the collapse of societies is always ruled by its governors egoism..." and the peoples support of that government. Very often the people and the society allow and even support the government.

      Indeed the morality of the individuals that are the components of our reality and that have always to struggle for survival because of the dualistic essence of this reality is THE important factor for the character of our society." Agree. Note the comment on the African tribes above. They are tribes (Diamond's definition) fighting. We know a state (Diamond's definition) is possible. The science to better their position is known but unusable because of the limitations of a tribe structure.

      "Any new constitution is a result from a changing mentality...". I disagree if you mean morality. The new constitution of 1789 did not require a different morality - It merely had to solve problems the larger structure was having. But there is an interesting point in this. The US revolution and following constitution was lead by barons - that is educated, rich, business leaders, etc. The French revolution in the same time frame was created by intellectuals and "common people". This is why I noted "baron" not people.

      A change in human consciousness is unnecessary. But the change must be lead by practical leaders. This is what is developing. The barons are organizing.

      Dear John C Hodge,

      You note that "the principles that apply to physics should also apply to humanity, our social organization, and philosophy." I not only agree with this but have attempted this in my current essay, the Thermodynamics of Freedom, which I hope you will read. I have quoted you in the essay. I address the historical problem that "The citizens individual survival outlook in the larger political society is reduced." Not his physical existence so much as his existence as a free being.

      In applying principles of physics to humanity you note that "The physics of the minimum action principle suggests that the political hierarchy should not duplicate actions." Don't think our government has heard of that one!

      You also note: "Living together harmoniously is not the goal... Only survival and ending violent war are the goals."

      I take this as one of the two basic goals I analyze, and think you will find the analysis interesting. I look forward to any comments you might have on it.

      And yes, the barons are organizing.

      My best regards,

      Edwin Eugene Klingman

      Dear John,

      Well argued case for a nation organization.

      For some reason, as I read your essay, I kept getting reminded of the growth projected in cities. Nearly 1 million people worldwide are moving to cities every week and 70% of us will be living in cities by 2050 from about 50% today. In effect, we are moving to a city-state model of economic and social design with Singapore as one example and Lagos on the other end. Does this heavy concentration impact your thoughts?

      Thank you,

      - Ajay

      PS: I appreciate any and all comments you might have on my essay.

        No. The senior structure runs the military that does battle outside the political organization and enforces judgments against states. I suppose if the world becomes the nation, the military assumes a different role.

        A city-state is just another state that pays taxes for representation in the national organization and must meet the challenges of survival.

        What happens to the city-state in a famine? Does the nation provide relief that must come from farm states? No. The folly of such organization will then come home.

        Note Detroit. Although the Federal government provided some bailout) funded by more successful states) of the auto industry, it was for naught. What a waste of resources.

        Thanks for your comment. I'll read your essay.

        The science to improve the lot of the African people is available. The difficulty they face is the political organization will not allow the science to function. After a political change, other nations such as China have used available science to their advantage. Hence, Africa has starvation and war. The political change must come first. Therefore, your suggestion can be accomplished by making the necessary political changes.

        Dear John,

        Very strong and profound essay in the spirit Cartesian doubt with a particular program of action. I fully agree with your conclusion:

        «If we fail to organize to preclude war and allow competition and change, humanity will fail. Humanity should steer the future by creating a true nation organization. The best state that humanity can achieve is to be able to adapt to changes without the destruction of war or of collapse. »

        Let's all work together in building up a more sustainable future of Humanity and hope for the best! It's time, we start the path... The New Era and New Generation demanded action.

        High regard,

        Vladimir

        John,

        It was a great pleasure to read your essay and find so many views and ideas I completely resonate with. For me it was a h jar stuffed with goodies, i.e;

        Collapse due to complexity (though I suggest that's relative to intellectual power so we may also have other solutions.

        Lack of knowledge/poor predictability of nature. (I show in mine that the same answer may help there too - i.e. the answers are there, most just can't yet see them).

        Cosmology and Physics are inconsistent. You betcha! - as above; a specific classical interpretation of QM also emerges which may be a key to most else.

        Action by contact; Your foundation seems right in line with mine (and natures of course) as also discussed in different ways the last few essays. I won't go on as you've earned a top score already! Your present score seems a travesty.

        I've determined the problem is not so much the coherent science but how to get it assimilated onto neural networks with deeply embedded false assumptions. A big splash such as unifying QM and SR would help, but that's as tricky as any other. I have got a galaxy evolution sequence about to be published. Perhaps we could catch up with each others work after reading essays!

        Very well done, and thank you for confirming sense still does exist under the apparent complexity. I don't think I can score at present but I've made a note. I do hope to see you on my blog.

        best wishes

        Peter

          Dear John,

          Now that I have read your paper, I understand your perspective better. I agree with many points that you make in your paper, but there are others where I additional factors that complicate the issues.

          Take, for example, your analogy between the laws of physics and the philosophy of life, by which you presumable are referring to certain rules of society. I have the impression that you would like to take the analogy quite literally, but are there not complications arising from the fact new phenomena can emerge whenever a system is sufficiently complex. In fact, one of largest limitations of a purported TOE (if it exists) is that even if we had access to it, it would likely still fail to help us predict the behavior of sufficiently complex systems.

          Another issue is that you seem to advocate a kind of confederacy in which the states enjoy a very high degree of autonomy as a replacement of the current political system of the US. While there are undoubtedly advantages to that kind of a structure, there are equally certain disadvantages. For instance, some kind of problems are simply to big for a state to handle on its own, and if each state is a quasi country on its own, problems can arise when one state is in possession of a critical natural resource (say water in the arid west) and has the autonomy to cut off other states, regardless of the consequences. Another situation that comes to my mind is that in which industrial plants in one state cause some kind of pollution (possibly even hazardous to health) but the pollution does not affect citizens of that state but the neighboring one (say because it is located down-river). An impotent federal government and an inability to come to an agreement with each other could lead to collisions between the states including armed conflict.

          My point is NOT that your suggestions necessarily won't work, but rather that there may be new kinds of problems that arise from you solution which could have been discussed. Rarely are the solutions complicated problems simple.

          All the best,

          Armin

            Armin

            I suggest the fundamental principles of life and physics should be the same. They are not now. But, the hope in the essay is to use life, cosmology, and the small (QM) to deduce a single set of fundamental principles. Not analogy, but literally as far as the principles go. The analogy comes when we consider the fractal suggestion. For example, the fractal suggestion concludes that because the wave-particle duality and Schroedinger's cat are not seen in everyday life, they are false for the small as well. New phenomena that do not fit the model such as exists now point to new physics and perhaps new principles.

            Another issue is that you seem to advocate a kind of confederacy in which the states enjoy a very high degree of autonomy as a replacement of the current political system of the US. While there are undoubtedly advantages to that kind of a structure, there are equally certain disadvantages. Another situation that comes to my mind is that in which industrial plants in one state cause some kind of pollution (possibly even hazardous to health) but the pollution does not affect citizens of that state but the neighboring one (say because it is located down-river). An impotent federal government and an inability to come to an agreement with each other could lead to collisions between the states including armed conflict.

            I advocate a confederacy with the nation government providing the adjudication between state arguments.

            "For instance, some kind of problems are simply to big for a state to handle on its own, and if each state is a quasi country on its own, problems can arise when one state is in possession of a critical natural resource (say water in the arid west) and has the autonomy to cut off other states, regardless of the consequences." Exactly. This situation exists now between nations with armies. Canadian rivers are coming into the US with high levels of pollution. If a state wants to cutoff resources from another state - let it. That state will only hurt itself by reduced revenue and some resources it needs may be cutoff. Remember, such states making bad decisions will lead to that state's collapse. I expect states to collapse and that other states will learn from that collapse. The difference is that now the Federal government must get everything right all the time or all states collapse. Will the people be harmed? Only if they also make poor choices. For example, Detroit made bad decisions with corruption. Those who couldn't get adequate support voted with their feet and left.

            I didn't suggest that the nation government should be impotent. Where did you get that idea? I said the nation had the only military and adjudicated disputes. I think it implied that the adjudication has the gun behind it.

            Actually, I think I know how you got that idea. People a so accustomed to running to the federal government for everything; they naturally assume if the federal government doesn't do it, it won't get done. Actually if the Federal government attempts it, it stand a higher chance of failure. I note the example of education.

            I addressed another subtle problem. Suppose the Federal government has evidence with prediction success. The Federal government ignores such solutions if it is contrary to the political agenda of bigger government. This was my example of Friedman. The solution to the economic problem is known and proven. Yet, ......

            There will be new problems. But with 50+states working on them, the solution is more likely to be found than if only one solution is working at the Federal level.

            Peter

            Thanks for the kind words.

            What is your blog address?

            Hodge

            John,

            I don't have a blog, but most papers are webarchived at Academia.edu. Some also on arXiv and viXra. My Email link is at the foot of my end notes. I greatly look forward to discussing with you further.

            Best wishes

            Peter

            P.S., I will use the following rating scale to rate the essays of authors who tell me that they have rated my essay:

            10 - the essay is perfection and I learned a tremendous amount

            9 - the essay was extremely good, and I learned a lot

            8 - the essay was very good, and I learned something

            7 - the essay was good, and it had some helpful suggestions

            6 - slightly favorable indifference

            5 - unfavorable indifference

            4 - the essay was pretty shoddy and boring

            3 - the essay was of poor quality and boring

            2 - the essay was of very poor quality and boring

            1 - the essay was of shockingly poor quality and extremely flawed

            After all, that is essentially what the numbers mean.

            The following is a general observation:

            Is it not ironic that so many authors who have written about how we should improve our future as a species, to a certain extent, appear to be motivated by self-interest in their rating practices? (As evidence, I offer the observation that no article under 3 deserves such a rating, and nearly every article above 4 deserves a higher rating.)

            Dear John

            I read your essay with interest. I indeed agree that some principles of physics can be applied to humanity and viceversa, but I think the language in which physics speaks is quite different from that of humanity.

            At the beginning of your essay you say: science and religion cover a large range of knowledge. I wonder what kind of knowledge religion covers. I understand that there are several kinds of knowledge but I would not say that religion is about knowledge but of belief and faith. Religion is not as rational as science is. May be you have in mind another kind of knowledge for religion. Perhaps you may wish to express some comments about this.

            I would like to clarify something about this statement: Birth is a rearrangement of existing matter to create a new relationship or spirit. Throughout the individual's life, the matter and the spirit change.

            From the point of view of physics, there is no such a thing called spirit. Elementary matter conforms structures, molecules, cells and, ultimately, living organisms but not spirits. For science, there is no duality matter-spirit, there is only matter-energy. A spirit is not part of science. In science, consciousness may play the role of spirit. If this is what you mean to say, please omit what I just said, otherwise, your statement is not well expressed.

            Good luck in the contest!

            Best Regards

            Israel

              IP

              Thanks for allowing me to reference your essay.

              "...the language in which physics speaks is quite different from that of humanity." I agree. But that is part of the problem. For example, the language of QM and Cosmology are quite different. But yet most agree the new model that corresponds to the two can be found. The definition of terms and language (math) must change, also. I suggest the new language may be defined with humanity in mind, also. But where humanity is concerned, the problem of description is much more profound. Science wants words and symbols that other scientists may understand. Humanity has resisted this impulse instead relying on vague terms on which each individual may put their own definition. For example, "good" and "bad" means different actions to different people. Few object to the idea they should do good. The actions of doing "good" differ considerably. I think this confusion is intentional so politicians can appeal to people without getting specific in their intended actions. That is, the vagueness of definition is a propaganda ploy. Look at the vagueness and lack of definition in most of these essays. So the application of science to humanity requires carefully defined words. The faith and belief part is secondary (if not tertiary) and is needed to keep the members in line so the predicted outcome may be measured and new axioms tried. Religions compete with other religions based on their morals like science models compete based on the success of their predictions.

              Another science application I mentioned is the economic model used. The US government (politicians) economic model avoids the Friedman approach. The difference is that Friedman approach has made successful predictions (so there is no confusion - a prediction is a statement about the outcome of a event in the future that does happen. Some use the word to describe a postdiction.) Abuot these same events the competing model has not only failed but the outcomes were opposite to their forcast. So the politicians use the failed model. Humanity and science has knowledge to suggest a better approach but this is ignored in favor of a model more to their liking - a certain recipe for disaster.

              I classify morals and dictates of actions as knowledge. This knowledge has been obtained at great cost. The individual is asked to have belief that the moral dictate will result in his or his progeny's benefit. This is prediction about the outcome of survival. Morals also say "act contrary to the morals (evil?), your DNA line will surely end". I understand your statement about religion is not rational. I think religion is rational. The difference is that religion acts on a time span of centuries to test a moral change. View religion as trying to solve the problem of survival where a prediction requires centuries to evaluate. I think I see rationality in the development of religious thought on this time scale. Knowledge (a term that needs definition in the popular environment) is (here it is) the ability to PREDICT outcomes of actions (it was in the paper called understanding). Wisdom is the ability to CAUSE events. Both science and religion are trying to develop models that allow prediction and causation of events.

              Throughout an individual's life, the individual is continually give birth to new life -baby, child, adolescent, adult, old, dead. The idea of "spirit" is to link the thought to Liebniz thought of a type of force in the universe which could be treated with physics of relationism. For example, (I forget Liebniz's example) a student calls home and for minimum energy spend says "sent money". A bit later a large check arrive that symbolizes and much, much greater expenditure of money (energy). Physics requires that a change of energy require force. What force?

              Of course there is not a "spirit" definition in today's physics. Liebniz tried. ?What is the matter-energy of the student - parent relationship? The energy is certainly way out of balance. Consciousness is part of spirit. But then there is consciousness in molecules and particles. I think this is new science. Liebniz started it with his relationism. If we are to include life (I think that is what Liebniz was really trying), we must understand spirit and conscious. I suggest the inclusion of life in science and the common definition of terms (started in the essay's section 2) is the beginning of a route.

              I was impressed with your essay, also. I rated it a 10 some weeks ago.

              Hodge