A beautiful essay.

It is interesting the acceleration of the idea change approaching far away events with close backreaction, there is an analogy with an accelerated biologic evolution with radiation, or chemical mutagen (on the dna), or an accelerated change in cultural memes (with many innovators that break the knowledge system): it seem that environments that have too fast changing must have a faster cultural change, but there is a limited teaching capacity; a kindly cultural manipulation is natural for a teacher, but I see the futuristic prevision of probable brain implants like a nightmare (the television advertising like an anticipation).

I am not interested to the current practice of publication, that I see like a nonsense, but if a group of researchers in a scientific field, would vote in a manifest way an open article that it is read, and understood (and this essay contest is an example that sometimes work), then everything would be more democratic, and interesting (no referees, no style, no restriction, only good readers of a successful article).

I am thinking that any limitation (not due to ethical reasons) in scientific papers, and in the exploration of the frontiers of the knowledge, limits our capacity of adapt to the environment, along the same road, without variety.

    Lawrence,

    I'm not at all sure that we'll have our oh-shit moment regarding climate change in the next decade. That's what I thought 20 years ago... I've come to the conclusion that we simply do not have the means to react to problems on that time and distance scales. It is interesting if you read the 'limits of growth' report from 1972, that it basically pointed out exactly this problem. But back then we didn't have the tools to solve the problem - now we have them, we just have to use them smartly. That's where my hope is today & that's what my essay is about. Best,

    Sabine

    George,

    I think what you are saying is closely related to my point, though you use a different vocabulary. The institutions that 'we are seeking to influence' is what I call 'the systems that govern our lives'. They are not of course autonomous, but their behavior is so complex that we fail to comprehend it. It doesn't do, basically, what we 'want' (what our priorities are). The function of the priority maps is to enable this comprehension. Thanks for pointing me towards your essay, which I will read with interest. Best,

    Sabine

    Dear Sabine,

    You wrote: "I may be naïve and I may be wrong." Yes, perhaps. This makes you cute. May I ask you how your job in HEP contributes to rescuing the world? Voting for SPD or Greens and limiting the number of own children is perhaps not enough.

    I hope you will not mistake me.

    Best,

    Eckard

      Sabine

      It is clear that much thought and a sincere wish to find the right way to solve the looming questions facing humanity has gone into the writing of this essay. You may be quite right in your assessment how much effort an individual is willing or can spend towards solving problems beyond his or her immediate experience.

      With the tools available now or will be available soon the implementation of your priority map feedback scheme may well be possible. My iphone priority app will warn me "do not buy that," when its camera sees my hand reaching out for an environmentally harmful product at the supermarket.

      I feel though that you have left out a large part of the problem and the solution: the collective organization of society and educating it to act in the right way. This has been traditionally the role of religion and politics - good governance is necessary for solving our global problems. Scientists need not be the only source of new ideas - artists of all kind are essential to translate our inner hopes and fears into a form that can be fed into your priority maps.

      Best wishes

      Vladimir

      Dear Professor Hossenfelder,

      Your essay was beautifully written and held my interest throughout. I do hope that it does well in the competition.

      With regards,

      Joe Fisher

        Sabine,

        In 1995, shortly after my honorable discharge from the U. S. Marine Corps, I graduated from commercial dive school and have primarily worked in the petro-chemical and energy sectors ever since. Based on this experience, I find the idea that humans can self-regulate their way to a sustainable future somewhat naive. Don't get me wrong, I feel your Priority Maps would make for an interesting research program, I just don't feel your assumptions, which you conveniently placed in the conclusion, have any basis in reality. Allow me to elaborate if you will.

        Houston, Texas, hosts CERAweek, a gathering of top executives from all of the world's energy companies, once a year. 2013 was the first time ever that they acknowledged the existence of anthropocentric global warming. Of course the round-table discussion they held on the subject didn't focus on what they could do to mitigate anthropocentric contributions to the phenomenon, rather, it was on what they could do to mitigate the effects anthropocentric global warming could potentially have on their business model, but at least they acknowledged its existence. Even the investors in said companies are demanding an assessment of global warming. Meanwhile, conservative politicians and blowhards such as Rush Limbaugh and Donald Trump continue to insist it's just a myth propagated by the liberal media. The conservative columnist who writes for The Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer, even quoted your favorite physicist, Freeman Dyson, to support his latest tirade. And he received full support from Forbes magazine, of course.

        I personally had a role in shutting down an operation that was illegally storing and recycling used drilling mud. They were storing the mud in open earth pits - no liners or other containment barriers - just long enough for the drill filings to settle, then mixing the chemicals in the pit by cycling the mud through a system of mix pumps, and then re-introducing the chemicals back into their mud production process. The open earth pits were located just upstream from a large, freshwater lake which was supplying drinking water for two large communities. The man bankrolling the operation has a Harvard MBA and a Forbes profile, of course.

        I've had the occasion to get to know a gentleman who works in the Major Offenders Division of a major Environmental Enforcement Agency and he can tell you some tales. He makes a living off of concrete manufacturers and readily admits that he only halts a very small fraction of violators. He's arrested people who are getting paid, and paid rather handsomely, to properly dispose of hazardous materials for dumping said materials illegally and at public detriment.

        I have another acquaintance from the commercial dive industry, Paul McKim, who was once a legend in the industry; for a good while he held records for both depth and duration in saturation and was one of eleven American divers recruited by the government of England to implement dive operations in the North sea. In 2001 Paul secured exclusive rights to utilize an innovative, one-man, autonomous submarine with a tremendous depth rating in oilfield support operations and, with said rights, his knowledge of the offshore environment, and his vast network, he developed an offshore support company specializing in deep water work called Deep Marine Technologies (DMT). In 2001 DMT grossed just under $600,000 in revenue; by 2005 Paul was on the cover of Entrepreneur magazine and DMT grossed just under $60 million.

        To facilitate the exponential growth of DMT, Paul brought in a venture capitalist from Minnesota, an Iranian/American named Kazimeny; Kazimeny was "friends" with the U. S. Congressman from Minnesota, Norm Coleman. Not long after Paul and DMT were featured in Entrepreneur magazine, Coleman and his wife embarked on a $400,000 renovation of their home in Minnesota. Naturally wanting to help his "friend," Kazimeny decided to funnel $100,000 through DMT to the Colemans. Norm Coleman's wife was an insurance agent licensed in Minnesota and worked as an independent contractor for Hayes Insurance, a company owned by another Coleman "friend." So Kazimeny simply created a fraudulent paper trail demonstrating that DMT engaged Hayes Insurance for "risk analysis" work and instructed DMT's CFO to pay Hayes Insurance, hence, Coleman's wife, $100,000 in four installments. Never mind that DMT, like most offshore companies, utilized Llyods for all of its insurance needs.

        After the first $25,000 payment, McKim found out about the ploy and put a stop to it. Kazimeny illegally manipulated the board and promptly fired McKim from his own company. Paul sued in the State District Court of Texas claiming breach of fiduciary duty, amongst other things, and Kazimeny promptly put DMT into bankruptcy because it was McKim's only source of income. Kazimeny displayed absolutely no regard for DMT employees or anyone depending on DMT's services.

        Of course the FBI became involved but the investigation went nowhere. Norm Coleman was trying to get re-elected when it all played out and the resulting scandal was partially responsible for his losing a run-off to the comedian, Al Franken. Today Coleman is a conservative lobbyist in Washington so now he and his wife can whore themselves with the full support and blessing of the American Supreme Court. Do you think Norm Coleman is the exception or the rule? Call me a cynic, but I say he's the rule.

        Not long ago I watched a "gentleman" driving a fancy Recreational Vehicle, a motor home in the $80,000 - $100,000 range, dump his motor home's septic in the city storm sewer. Based on scientific analysis and extrapolation, approximately 350,000 - 400,000 barrels of used motor oil find their way into the Galveston Bay every year. This at a time when all automotive parts stores AND Walmart offer used motor oil recycling FREE OF CHARGE! I could go on and on . . .

        So perhaps you would be interested in the Lifeboat Foundation, Ha, Ha, Ha . . .

        "I am presently working on three related topics:

        1. the paleolithic, hunter-gatherer lifestyle as a model of what humans have evolved to live like, and thus a good starting point if you want to understand how we can optimize our physical and mental health, strength and well-being

        2. the concept of challenge as the fundamental driver of action and development in all agents, human as well as non-human

        3. the problem of coordination in self-organization: how can a collective of initially autonomous agents learn to collaborate in the most productive way without any central supervisor telling them how to do it

        The three topics are related in that they are all applications of what I call the "ontology of challenge and action," which sees the world as being constituted out of actions and their agents, and challenges as situations that elicit those actions. The life of a hunter-gatherer is essentially a sequence of (mostly unpredictable) challenges - mostly minor, sometimes major. In contrast, our modern civilized life has tried to maximally suppress or exclude uncontrolled challenges (such as accidents, germs, hot and cold temperatures, wild animals). Without these challenges, the various human subsystems that evolution has produced to deal with these challenges (e.g. the immune system, muscles, fast reflexes) remain weak and underdeveloped, leading to a host of diseases and mental problems.

        The link with self-organization is that the action of one agent will in general change the environment in such a way as to produce a challenge to one or more other agents. If these agents react "appropriately," their interaction may become cooperative or synergetic; otherwise it is characterized by friction. In the best case, patterns of synergetic interaction propagate via the challenges they produce to the whole collective, which thus starts to act in a coordinated fashion."

        - Francis Heylighen, pages 316-317 in Between Ape and Artilect

        "I don't like the phrase 'existential risk' for several reasons. It presupposes that we are clear about exactly what 'existence' we are risking. Today, we have a clear understanding of what it means for an animal to die or a species to go extinct. However, as new technologies allow us to change our genomes and our physical structures, it will become much less clear to us when we lose something precious. 'Death' and 'extinction,' for example, become much more amorphous concepts in the presence of extensive self-modification.

        It's easy to identify our humanity with our individual physical form and our egoic minds, but in reality, our physical form is an ecosystem, only 10% of our cells are 'human.' Our minds are also ecosystems composed of interacting sub-personalities. Our humanity is as much in our relationships, interconnections, and culture as it is in our individual minds and bodies. The higher levels of organization are much more amorphous and changeable. For these reasons, it could be hard to pin down what we are losing at the moment when something precious is lost. {Addition to clear with Steve: It is more likely that we will only realize what we have lost, long after it's already gone for good.}

        So, I believe the biggest 'existential risk' is related to identifying the qualities that are most important to humanity and to ensuring that technological forces enhance those rather than eliminate them. Already today we see many instances where economic forces act to create 'soulless' institutions that tend to commodify the human spirit rather than inspire and exalt it."

        - Steve Omohundro, pages 326 - 327 in Between Ape and Artilect

        Do you have any example where greater communciation or feedback loop would be useful? You mention some things like plastic in the ocean, but in my experience, people think that there is much more plastic in the ocean than there really is. What will be accomplished by better info about plastic in the ocean?

          • [deleted]

          Hi Sabine,

          I enjoyed reading your essay. I like the way you have focused on the problem of implementing solutions. Bringing the problems close and feeding back relevant information to allow good decision making are two very important points you raise.I agree that having solutions and being able to implement them to give significant change do not currently go hand in hand. Breaking it into a 5 point plan makes it seem more achievable.

          I am 'creeped out' by the idea of brain implants to help people 'feel' what is 'right'. It seems a slippery slope to fully automated mind control where people are given what to think but feel it is the product of their own mind. I'm quite creeped out by the whole idea of transhumanism, merging with the machine and in the future AI. I think the suggested brain implant is the first step that crosses the boundary of what it is to be human. I agree it might make life easier if information did not have to be gathered , evaluated and then utilized for good decision making but freedom of thought and being able to find alternative viewpoints and think differently is also important for progress. If we already 'feel' that we have the necessary information there will be no drive to seek further or alternative information.

          Would the brain implants be compulsory? Or just marketed as a very cool, socially responsible, time saving technology? Would there be peer pressure from those with implants on those without? Would those with implants consider themselves superior, more responsible people?

          Sorry for dwelling on that 'creepy' aspect, which is only a small part of your enjoyable, relevant, very well reasoned and presented work. Good luck, Georgina

            Money is neither a commodity nor a contract, it's a promise. It's a social construct. It only works because most of us have trust others will honor it.

            Be that as it may, before there was money there was barter and if people lose their faith in money, that's what they will go back to. That makes economy more cumbersome but doesn't stop it. The problem with the financial system is a lack of insight about its behavior. It's this lack of insight that prevents us from improving on the shortcomings that you point out and it's this lack of insight that I address in my essay. Best,

            Sabine

            Hi John,

            Yes, I agree, most of the suggestions in this essay contest will never happen, they will not even be tried. I think the basic reason that the forces in the US do not propel people into action is that they still have bread and games, as the Romans put it. Best,

            B.

            Domenico,

            See, your vision of researchers 'democratically' voting on papers suffers from exactly the problem I discuss: It's a good idea, in principle, but it doesn't work, in practice. It's been tried, repeatedly, and it failed. People do not take the time to participate in such a rating. Most papers never get read. You do not change people's behavior by telling them what would be good if *everybody* did it, but by giving them something that is good for them individually. That's a variant of the collective action problem. Best,

            B.

            Eckard,

            I wrote about this here:

            http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2014/01/why-quantize-gravity.html

            Which is think will answer your question.

            Bee, I don't always agree with you in the details; however, I find that all of your writing has a palpable honesty and fearlessness that commands the respect of any rational thinker.

            Here, I agree with you heartily: "The root of the problems that humanity faces today is that our adaptation as a species has fallen behind the changes we have induced ourselves."

            My own essay, submitted and not yet published, identifies the same problem and the consequences of the feedback loops it engenders.

            Looking forward to stimulating dialoque.

            Good job!

            All best,

            Tom

              "humans don't care what somebody or some thing thinks they should

              be doing. They'll do whatever they please."

              I WISH that were true! If so, we'd be totally functional. Instead humans are easily brainwashed by governments/corporations/media to behave in ways that go against their very nature, making them do self-harming behavior, and turning them into miserable, anxious, depressed physically ill folks who don't understand why they are so sick!

              Which is why I totally agree with you that "We have a social problem, not a technological one. "

              Once we start a social trend of focusing on taking good care of ourselves, and following our own dreams for doing what we feel most inspired to do in life, and attaining what we most value in the world (doing what we please) we'll finally start to see humans getting out of their own way, and actually being the forward-thinking, pro-social, intelligent, creative beings that we're genetically programmed to be, rather than the wage-slave, anti-social, vengeful, paranoid beings that we've been convinced we're "supposed" to be.

              To me, as a teacher and counselor, the only real solution I've ever found is to create an environment where individuals feel supported, get their basic needs met (with honestly high quality food, water, air, warmth, light, information, and outlets for expressing their body's excess matter and energy), and are encouraged to follow their dreams for doing whatever they find most meaningful in life. Gamification, while amusing and currently very hip, is likely to fail for the same reasons that our current monetary system has failed, because it adds an artificial, kludgy system of over-complexity and unscientific/subjective valuation to things that are already naturally understood and simple (homo-sapiens' natural pro-social, creative, playful exploration and mastery of the world).

              However, I do totally agree that we need to make information readily accessible to everyone, because ignorance does no one any good! The more information an individual has access to, the better they are able to make decisions based on reality, rather than fantasy. We need to provide unconditional access to high quality communication tools for anyone who wants them.

              I also like your idea of priority maps. That's similar to my own proposal in my essay. Sharing our goals, wants, and offers is crucial to bringing the stuff that is out there to the people who need it to do their best work. I envision a matchmaking system that works like a personal dating service, only for everything. And I mean everything! You want X, I have X to offer. That's the nervous system of the world. Then we just need an efficient circulatory system for the world to move X from me to you, and we're all set.

                What if people, instead of the zero-sum idea of barter/money, started to work with the larger world the way they work normally in their day to day lives with their families and friends? Families and friends don't use a zero-sum/competitive system for resource allocation, instead they use a system of (freely) giving what is available to give and using whatever is freely available to improve their lives. In other words, normal, healthy relationships where we take care of ourselves using what's available.

                The barter/competition/money/zero-sum system is artificial, and gets in the way of healthy relationships, and makes it more likely that we'll get sick, because resources are hoarded, rather than freely circulating. And most humans instinctively understand this, but simply don't know what else to do, since they feel trapped by the brainwashing that they've been raised with.

                Which means it's up to the more intelligent, creative thinkers who can see how insane/sick the zero-sum/competition system is, and instead promote, use, and celebrate the healthy, natural, normal system of choosing to do what we love and offer what we have in excess, independently of the mainstream corporate/government silliness.

                Human nature is creative, intelligent, pro-social, and curious, and all we have to do to ensure that these traits are expressed is to stop letting stupid ideas like competition/monetization get in the way!

                Sabine,

                Yes, the nature of finance does need the best minds studying it and not just for their own profit.

                Actually there has been a number of studies, both historically and of aboriginal societies and the medium for barter comes late in the game, after systems of social and civil contracts and obligations are established and then they become another traded good. Such as a token for grain in the community storage, gold certificates from a goldsmith etc, which then become goods in themselves. What this has since morphed into is that as the economies grow larger, there develops a need for these tokens far greater than their creation, so then it starts to take on a life of its own, so then the idea of futures comes into play. That I will give you some value that I don't yet actually have. Then forms of insurance, etc. Then there get to be situations where there are far more of these promises than can possibly be fulfilled and it collapses. When it gets to this stage, it really does become a giant ponzi scheme, as ever more promises have to be made, just to roll over the ones already due. My point is that if people learned from grade school economics, that these are contracts, not actual commodities, then, hopefully, the bubble will be understood as a bubble much earlier in the process and so it can unravel a little quicker and not use so many resources to support it. As it is, people tend to think of 'their money' as property, rather than promises from the larger community, so they lose sight of the connection between the value of their money and the health of the community. What if your heart, or your brain, or your muscles each thought of the blood as their own and tried to hold onto it as much as possible? Now economists understand why the circulation of money is important, yet when everyone wants to hold as much of this 'property' as possible, flow slows. Yet you will not find much in the way of popular descriptions of economics explaining this.

                An interesting essay on Modern Monetary Theory in this month's New Inquiry.

                Regards,

                John M

                Thank you Bee.

                Yes, I think that the idea is too simple, but an arxiv with (a possible) vote after reading could work, with a different impact factor (so that there is a double impact factor to compare).

                The problem is that now if there is a good research line, then each search to publish in this research topics, because there are citations on the topics, so that it is interest in the Universities to product the same research (with no diversification and no velocity in the adaptation); so that I think that if someone work in a field, and someone has the possibility to indicating that some research is interesting, with a different method, with a different line of research, with a different impact factor (this is the nonsense, to focus the research in winning political strategies), then there is a better use of the resource.

                Sabine,

                You wrote "we still build on the new ground discovered by physicists a century ago", "There MUST be more to find than we have found so far", "occurrence of singularities in unquantized gravity", "I don't believe in the non-deterministic part of " [quantum mechanics], "all the rest ... is perfectly fine", "We know the theory MUST exist", "Causality depends on the metric structure of space-time", "A superposition is a state in the Hilbert space like any other state", "It evolves unitary and causally like everything else". Did I get the essence? Good luck.

                Being much older, I need no complaining about rejected research proposals. I am merely collecting arguments that may question some of the basics your hopes are built on. Sharing some of your doubts, my approach is more basic. I question any singularities and absolute infinities in physics. I enjoy how Roger Schlafly destroyed spacetime: Time is what distinguishes the past from the future.

                Eckard