Essay Abstract

Given the fact that the future is open and hard to predict, and that humanity is not a single organism with a single purpose, what are the initiatives that could realistically improve our ability to steer the future? There is no shortage of studies that analyse current trends in order to determine the likelihood of different future scenarios. But when it comes to actually steering the future, although some initiatives at the national level can have real impacts, international initiatives (like the Kyoto Protocol) often fall short of their intended goals. The fact that many people around the world have lost faith in figures of authority and "Big Government" only compounds the difficulty to enforce international resolutions. If humanity is to act in a concerted and coherent way to successfully steer the future, it will have to be on the basis of the collective will and understanding of a sizeable fraction of the world population. To achieve this, we need to have a worldwide conversation about the current state of the world and the realistic options that humanity can take. To make this possible, we need to raise the collective awareness about the topics that are the most relevant to the future (energy, natural resources, environmental protection, biological engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics, societal trends, etc.): we need a worldwide Futurocentric Education Initiative. We also need to foster a balanced and constructive attitude toward the future: we must counter the arguments of the fatalistic pessimists who exaggerate the problems we face, but also of the techno-optimists who believe that future technologies will save us no matter how careless we are. If humanity is to successfully steer the future, its citizens will need to rise to the challenge and become future-literate.

Author Bio

Marc Séguin has a master degree in Astronomy and another in History of Science from Harvard University. He is the author of several college-level textbooks in physics and astrophysics. He has spent the last 25 years exploring ways to teach introductory physics better, and he still hasn't found what he's looking for.

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Hi Marc,

I think your point is a good one - if we want both citizen involvement in decisions and a sensibly steered future we need to have a broad base of citizens who are highly educated about the problems of the future. I think your list of potential topics covered in such an education is generally very good.

Of course, at the moment we have a great challenge in that even in many 'educated' countries we achieve unimpressive literacy and numeracy outcomes. So the great challenge will be not only lifting that as a prerequistite of these topics, but then also making time for these topics in the curriculum.

Another issue from my perspective is that there is often great conflict over what is taught in education from various people with a political or philosophical agenda. For example, your topic of examining wealth disparity would be a nexus of fierce debate and accusations. That's not to say they are not worth working to reach a solution on, but I wonder if you have any thoughts as to avoiding such thorny entanglements?

Lastly I want to say that your idea of online courses on these topics sounds like a good starting point, and I think proposals on how they might work, their content, their funding, their strategy to gain an audience and their medium (video content seems to be more effective for teaching some things than large swathes of text for example) would be an interesting follow-up.

Thanks for writing this paper. Let me know what you think of mine if you get a chance!

    Hello Marc,

    I read your submission on a worldwide Futurocentric Education Initiative. It is hard not to agree with you about the importance of some things before the others and on consolidation of the humanity's efforts toward upcoming changes. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I do not know you, but I guess that you are a good teacher and a caring man. However, (a) in your plan you missed many things (I would add to it ... almost infinite list of the most significant things) and (b) it is about formal education, while the majority of the people prefer informal education.

    I doubt that your program will be realized and not because of the lack of money (by the way, it is worth to look for a rich sponsor like Bill Gates), organizational effort or good teachers. Simply, born-diverse people have diverse interests. Do you know the joke - Ask two Jews, get three opinions? From common experience we know that without any Futurocentric Initiative guidance everyone- early or later in life- would find what he needs to do.

    I suggest you will read my essay. It is about the imagining and analogous imagining and about how people think. By the way, this essay is a part of a large futuristic work like one called Summa Technologae by S. Lem. I hope you have your ideas to share. I am interested to hear from you.

    You may look at my entry about imagining the future. I hope my essay will encourage you to learn more about ways of knowing and to apply analogous imagining in your field of interests.

    Please disregard any typo mistakes you may encounter.

    Margarita Iudin

      I like your point of view because it is both optimistic and rallying. In this era of corruption and discord (but aren't they all?), it would be easy to lose interest and let go, when in fact, we need to get knowledgeable and act in a positive fashion. I think your initiative has a lot of potential in that respect. A futurocentric approach to education would certainly fire my mind and motivate me to learn more, making me, in the process, better equipped to make good decisions both in the voting booths and in my everyday life. Of course, there are challenges, some of which have been pointed out by the other people who have posted comments. But, if we can agree on a future it may help us get past conflicts and work together towards a better future for humanity.

      Hi Ross,

      Thank you for commenting on my essay. I agree with you that if people don't have basic literacy and numeracy, it's hopeless to think they can acquire "future-literacy" through a futurocentric education initiative. But, at least in the case of numeracy, maybe the acquiring of numeracy can be motivated by a futurocentric goal. In today's schools, a lot of students don't see the need for mathematics beyond basic arithmetic, and even then, pocket calculators are ubiquitous... Maybe we can be more successful if we convince students that it is important to be mathematically literate in order to take part in a reasoned discussion about the future: for instance, thinking seriously about the future is likely to benefit from the knowledge of the properties of the exponential function, or of basic notions in probability and statistics.

      To make room for futurocentric topics in the curriculum, we will have to rethink certain priorities: for instance, in math class, we put a lot of emphasis on more or less "robotic" procedures to solve certain type or problems, but far less on the formulation of interesting questions that can be tackled by mathematics, or on the interpretation of the results of a computation. In the near future, powerful mathematical software like Wolfram Alpha (a free web-based resource) will be as ubiquitous as pocket calculators, and this could free valuable time for more meaningful learning objectives (see, for instance, the work done by Conrad Wolfram's team at computerbasemath.org).

      Your are also right to worry about the potential ideological conflicts that could arise from certain elements of the futurocentric curriculum, for example, the "rich-poor gap". The basic futurocentric curriculum should start by presenting the basic facts that are not very controversial --- for instance, the very fact that the gap between the rich and the poor is increasing, without diving right away in the causes of the phenomenon or what should be done about it (see, for instance, the Wikipedia entry "Great Divergence"). A healthy debate could then be initiated, and everyone would benefit if a certain level of civility can be maintained. But, we can foresee that it will not always be easy!

      Over the next few years, I certainly plan to experiment a few futurocentric modules with my students (I teach introductory physics to 18 and 19 year old students who plan to pursue a career in various STEM fields), and I hope that many parallel endeavours (and fruitful collaborations) will take place across the Interwebs!

      I will certainly read your essay and comment it on your forum, and I will make sure to rate it when all the essays are in and my "grading curve" is ready!

      Marc

      Hello Margarita,

      Thank you for commenting on my essay. I agree with your point (a). As I wrote on page 4 of my essay,

      The futurocentric curriculum presented in Table 1 is a rough draft that is not meant to be exhaustive: one of the greatest challenges of a successful Futurocentric Education Initiative will be to determine what the optimal curriculum should be.

      I also agree with your point (b). As I wrote on page 8 of my essay,

      To be successful, it is important that the Futurocentric Education Initiative not be aimed solely at young people still in school. It needs to reach the most people possible, and that means lifelong education, through magazine and web articles, books, documentaries, YouTube channels, MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses), etc.

      I will certainly read your essay and grade it once all the essays are in and my final "grading curve" is ready!

      Marc

      Marc,

      quote: If humanity is to successfully steer the future, its citizens will need to rise to the challenge and become future-literate. Let us bet that knowledge is a good thing, and that the more numerous are the citizens of the world who have a sound basic understanding of the way the world is and evolves, the more happy, prosperous and secure the future of humanity will be.

      I think part of STEM or more recently STEEM efforts in public schools are attempting to introduce students to Futurocentric subjects as you cite.

      An important part of that effort is not being addressed. Critical Thinking and Predicting Consequences is not taught significantly in public schools.

      Without these skills, knowing about future potentials alone will not create a significant number of related career pathways.

      I am proposing, and have created the foundation for a 501(c)3 to implement, the teaching of Common Sense in our school systems. This would allow students to act for themselves on Futurocentric potentials, and create customized career pathways suitable for their interests.

      Some will act in a business capacity, others in research, others as technicians...

      Dear Mr. Séguin,

      Your abstractions filled essay was extremely well written and I do hope that it does well in the competition. I do have a minor quibble that I hope you do not mind me mentioning.

      A good number of credentialed scientists have convinced me that it has taken thousands of years for the human brain to evolve. There appears to be about 7 billion naturally born brains presently running about on the planet. Are you seriously telling me that a group of scientists can really fabricate a superior brain out of ingredients that are completely different than the stuff a normal human brain is made of?

      Why don't the scientists tell women how superior brains are easily constructed so the women can avoid the pains of childbirth?

      Regards,

      Joe Fisher

        Joe,

        Thank you for taking the time to read my essay.

        From your comment, I see that you have some doubts about the realistic prospects of "artificial intelligence". It could be, as you are suggesting, that it is impossible to construct a truly intelligent structure, that it has necessarily to EVOLVE over thousands of years. It could be, as you are suggesting, that any intelligent structure has to be made of the same "stuff" than the human brain (flesh and blood). It could be, as you are suggesting, that human beings are not ingenious enough to construct a truly intelligent artificial structure.

        Then again, it could be that none of these issues are deal-breakers, and that we will find a way to construct quite powerful intelligent structures out of electronic circuits. What we have so far (powerful search engines, self driving cars, decent automatic translators) is not "general intelligence", but it is a form of intelligence, and it is quite impressive. Who knows where this will lead us in the next few decades? I, for one, will keep an open mind. But, as with any scientific issue, the only arbiter will be reality.

        Marc

        P.S. I don't quite see how having access to an artificial intelligence would help women to avoid the pain of childbirth! ;)

        Marc,

        The author of the essay HIGGS FIELD and QUANTUM GRAVITY is Chess Master George Rajna. As I pointed out to him, although the IBM machine easily beat Kasparov, every chess grandmaster is capable of playing simultaneous games of chess out of sight of the board and the pieces. No machine could ever be developed capable of visualizing a single chess move without first being informed where the pieces are on the board. As I rudely pointed out to another author, no quantum computer will ever be built capable of breaking wind. (The comment was removed because I used a vulgarity) Any proposed artificial intelligence must be fed with abstract lies such as 1+1=2, and there is a fixed constant speed of light. As I have thoughtfully pointed out in my essay, REALITY, ONCE, both of these abstractions are factually incorrect.

        Joe

        Many forum participants (including myself) are having trouble rating essays: the process "hangs" at the last step and does not complete. I have found that if I use Google Chrome instead of Firefox or Internet Explorer, the process works fine...

        Marc,

        Great essay. I agree that changing the way we think by teaching better ways is at the heart of advancement, by allowing us to use the potential of that quantum computer in our heads properly. A few others here agree.

        I also liked the pro-active approach of providing a 'list' for a futurecentric plan of action. T kind of went that way myself some time ago, in my head, and determined a path to follow for maximum effect. In fact my own essay is a result. May I offer couple of ideas for better teaching and advancement of science?

        1) Have a look at how Architects are taught. Most courses really re-teach students how to think; in a conceptual, non assumptive, organised way, always challenging 'conventional wisdom' and rigorously testing and evaluating the performances of options. Perhaps start with Wittgenstein, who learned greatly form an Architect friend. If we could only re-package that to teach generlly at school it would be a boon. The 'scientific method' seems largely ignored in science as front cerebral cortex judgements against embedded patterns prevail, keeping up in the doctrinal ruts.

        2) Use that new open approach (as Gell-Mann) to genuinely review and falsify new science. This will allow a classical derivation of QM, so unification of SR and QM at a stroke (see my essay) and massive advancement across the whole of science (the consequential galaxy evolution sequence paper is accepted and in preprint). The problem is not the science, it's right before us, but our ability to see it. (My 2011 essay '2020 vision' may have been optimistic!). Too many pay lip service to the SM but when faced with new science they run away in fear.

        i.e. My last years essay scored 2nd. The judges seemed to run away in fear.

        But very well done for yours. I suspect and hope it's not just the 'lip service' of most in physics. I feel it's presently well undervalued. I'll use my full powers as an enabler, but in science it may be teachers who have to start the advancement process. Please do comment on my essay if you can.

        Best wishes

        Peter

          Greetings Marc,

          I appreciate your enthusiasm about the ideas I've been working on. Your science-fiction scenarios were fun. I enjoyed seeing what occurred to another mind within the delightful logical territory of future-viewing machines. In my view, the most likely scenario you offered was the "virtuous" self-fulfilling prophecy.

          That's so cool that you will be teaching some of the ideas from my essay to your students. I am honored, and happy that you find them so useful. I will email you directly soon with something I know you will enjoy, and will post another comment here once I have found the time to read your essay carefully. All the best!

          Aaron

            Hi Marc,

            Thanks for your fine essay on the importance of a future oriented education. I agree very much.

            I personally like to expand all possible notions of education, but this is a minor point. It is good to see other essays valuing eduction.

            Thanks,

            Don Limuti

              Hi Marc,

              Very well written. You make a very good case for futurocentric education. I know that in my children's high school they are able to take a future problem solving class and their primary school had an extra curricula future problem solving group as extension activity for selected pupils. There was nothing like that when I was at school,I think it was assumed the future would be very much like the past. Its not going far enough but is a start especially as topics such as ecology and climate change are also covered in science and sociology classes. There are also many TV programmes, TED talks and you tube videos about future problems that are easily accessed.Whether people want to access that information is another question.

              Just being educated is not enough though there also has to be a change in social attitudes. Perhaps through public information broadcasts. I know my car is polluting and I do not need it to get to town. If I felt guilty, or judged, for driving I would be much more inclined to cycle to avoid that emotional discomfort.

              Good Luck, Georgina

                Hi Marc,

                Did you receive my email? If not, it might have ended up in your spam folder. I hope you're having a great weekend.

                Aaron

                Hi Aaron,

                I got your e-mail. Thanks! I will read what you sent me and reply directly to you by e-mail.

                Marc

                4 days later

                Marc - You've submitted a very nice essay: clear, concise and practical (and therefore quite different from most - including my own). Two thoughts - I like the outline of the Futurocentric agenda, but think it might need to be re-prioritized. Question of looking at value and meaning should come first - followed by the understanding of limits to empirical enterprise (statistics, uncertainty ...), and THEN to the practical issues of energy, food, technology. Although in teaching to the agenda (I am not a teacher) you probably need to start with the practical just to keep people interested - and then hopefully get into the limits of analysis and questions of value. Unfortunately current debates are mostly stuck in the former.

                The second point - while the pursuit of an agenda is important, it is also important to consider behaviors - how do we treat each other as we explore the Futurocentric agenda? This was the point of my essay (The Tip of the Spear - please excuse the pun) - and I would appreciate any comments you might offer.

                Thanks - George

                  Georgina,

                  Thank you for reading my essay and for your comments. I agree that public information broadcasts could be helpful.

                  I have read your essay and will comment on your forum.

                  Marc

                  Don,

                  Thank you for commenting on my essay. I have replied in your own forum.

                  Marc