[CONTINUED FROM ABOVE]

You also raise the important issue of whether or not "perspectives on the medium-long-term collective future of humanity would be more effective, in motivating high-school students, than the perspective of their short-term, individual, professional future". I think it could be, in some cases. For instance, future math majors sometimes do not see why they should know any biology, and students who want to pursue careers in the health sciences sometimes wonder why they need to learn about physics. If we can tie knowledge to its universal relevance for steering the future of humanity, I believe we can raise the motivation of, at least, some of the demotivated students. (Students who already love learning for learning's sake will do well no matter what.)

You mentioned Sabine Hossenfelder's essay, that suggests that we use "priority maps" to build a more-or-less automatic system that tells people how much their priorities match with the decisions they take, in an "intuitive and emotional way" that counteracts our laziness and lack of time to research the consequences of our actions. I found her approach very interesting, and it would certainly complement the education initiative I propose. It is useful to have automated helpers (like pocket calculators), but in order to use them at their full potential, I believe it is important to have internalized some basic knowledge about the way they work (you must know some basic things about numbers and math before being able to use a calculator). So even if one day we fully implement Sabine's system so that our decisions are guided in an effortless and intuitive way via a brain implant, I think the system will work better in conjunction with widespread future-literacy in the population.

As for the Millenium's Institute quote, "these great conversations will be better informed if we realize that the world is improving better than most pessimists know and that future dangers are worse than most optimists indicate", I know it sounds generic and somewhat vacuous, but I think it actually states something important. I know too many people who are concerned about the future of humanity, but who have so thoroughly internalized all the most extreme prophecies of doom that they fully believe that civilisation will collapse (never to rise again because of depleted resources), even if we outlawed all cars tomorrow and became all vegans. I think we need to keep a nuanced and balanced outlook, especially when we teach to young people who are just beginning to learn how the world works. (But we must also avoid to be overly optimistic and to believe that everything will turn out fine no matter what we do.)

Thank you again Tommaso for all the interesting issues you raised!

Marc

P.S. Your essay was one of the first I read, and I really enjoyed it, but I didn't take the time back then to comment on it and rate it. I will do that soon: see you in your forum!

Dear Marc,

Yes indeed , when you want to move on you need an "organised" way to realize that but....

Humanity is so different in its specific units that these units are forming "groups" with each one also different viewpoints, in politics these groups are trying to cooperate but have to "concede" with others (so there fine ideals have to be rubbed of) so the further we go in cooperation the more is rubbed of and the lesser is realized, that is my problem with mondial governments.

My perception is that humanity has to change its idealistic goals from egoistic short term profit making to an achievement of higher consciousness. Perhaps when the average age of a human being was 200 years and not about 80 years we should already be more cautious because we were more involved ourselves on the long term....

I hope that you can find some time to read my essay : "STEERING THE FUTURE OF CONSCIOUSNESS, and leave acomment on my thread I would be obliged if you would leave a rating that is in accordance with your appreciation.

best regards

Wilhelmus

Dear Marc,

I enjoyed reading your essay, which I think is very well written, deep and fun. I think the worldwide Futurocentric Education Initiative is an excellent idea. I completely agree that "the key word here is understanding", and that "knowledge is a good thing, and that the more numerous are the citizens of the world who have a sound basic understanding of the way the world is and evolves, the more happy, prosperous and secure the future of humanity will be".

Best regards,

Cristi

Tommy,

Thank you for the links. I was aware of some of these initiatives, but some were new to me. I will certainly look into it!

Marc

Marc,

Nobel's rationalism was not future-literate but logically consequent.

I reiterate the unwelcome question I addressed to Flavio Mercati :"What do you mean? How many people does the Earth need?"

Future-literate, as you described it, refers to symptoms rather than to truly basic moral perspectives.

Eckard

Dear Marc,

I loved many of your quotes (we both stole them from the same authors :-) ), e.g. "The future is where we are going to spend the rest of our lives." You even included ideas that I had to cut (e.g. explain why negative predictions are so popular) because I was busy specifying Three Crucial Technologies in my essay.

> "we need a worldwide Futurocentric Education Initiative."

I agree with you 100% that education is vitally important, and the future has always been in the hands of educators. Unfortunately, other than a few subgroups (some Asian and European immigrants to the United States, especially Ashkenazi Jews), people don't value education as much as is good for them. And as I wrote elsewhere, there are some problems with education.

First, education does not always convey correct ideas. Many Nazis learned their eugenics at University of California, Berkeley. Even worse, it is often difficult to determine which novel ideas will lead to disaster.

Second, some people do not want to be educated at all; others just are not interested in being educated in virtues or wisdom, or future studies --i.e anything that may require them to make a change in the way they live (because change is painful, plus change is a reminder of impending death). Future Studies has been taught at universities for decades, and on-line courses are available (e.g. http://www.csudh.edu/global_options/introfs.html).

Third, learning about complex knowledge is often difficult. It's so much easier to zone out in front of the TV, or play video games on the Xbox, or watch YouTube videos.

We need help to solve these three problems. Hopefully the Descriptive Logics of the Semantic Web will help with the first problem somewhat (and some systems are available now), but we need to take the next step, if it is possible--we need smart AI that we can trust to help with our weak willpower. In any case, we need to diversify off this planet--we simply can't afford to put all our eggs into one basket.

> "We also need to foster a balanced and constructive attitude toward the future: we must counter the arguments of the fatalistic pessimists who exaggerate the problems we face, but also of the techno-optimists who believe that future technologies will save us no matter how careless we are."

How can we balance the two correctly? This is much more difficult than it looks. For example, Steve Jobs was humorously reputed to carry around a portable reality distortion generator. It is very important to understand reality as it is (i.e. have your feet on the ground), but I wager that it is even more important to have visions of what can be (ie. have your head in the clouds). If you can connect the two (as Jobs did), then you can make a difference. Your thirteen item in Table 1 addressed the issue, but you didn't really solve the problem. Just to take one example (with huge consequences), how can we tell if Eric Drexler's view of nanotechnology is accurate? There are many intelligent people on both sides of the issue. Similarly with the capabilities of Artificial Intelligence.

What do you teach in such situations? As you pointed out, we should teach the debate (if you ask me, Drexler and his associates adequately answered all of Smalley's criticism). But that still doesn't tell us what to do in public policy.

Your description of the "deficit of meaning" is *wonderful* and vitally important. Dr. O'Neill stumbled on the idea of Space Colonies while trying to answer that question, and I ask it of all my students whenever I teach.

I loved your quote from Einstein: "The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious: it is the source of all true art and science." But I think that it means that we need more than just 21st century skills like critical thinking and Internet collaboration; it means having the correct 21st century attitude--realistic optimism and a willingness to work smart to make it happen.

-Tee

    Dear Tihamer,

    Thank you for taking the time to read my essay, and for your comments. You certainly raise a lot of valid issues with the idea of education helping humanity steer the future: the challenge of making people value education (especially about "difficult" topics that deal with the issues we will have to face in the future), and the challenge of making sure that we teach the "right thing". I agree with you on both counts.

    Your solutions are interesting: working towards a semantic "intelligent" web that can help us make the right decisions against our weak willpower, and the need to diversify off planet. I also agree that the optimal "21st century attitude" should be a blend of realistic optimism and a willingness to "work smart" to make things happen. Here's to the future!

    Marc

    One aspect of the future is not hard to predict. The technological systems provide goods and services to society by irreversibly using up limited natural material resources, producing immutable material waste and irrevocably devastating aspects of the environment. These systems are aging as friction does negative work on them. The service they provide is unsustainable.The challenge is on for humanity to steer the future usage of this infrastructure using the knowledge that has been acquired.

    • [deleted]

    Dear Marc,

    I totally agree with your ideas and conclusions. Need to make a revolution in Education, especially in school. Need to educate primarily creators thinking about the future of Humanity. The system «Futurocentric Education» must necessarily widely introduce Philosophy and Ethics. Right you mark the need for change in mathematics education. Basis of mathematical education should be the principle of historicity and visibility. "Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." (Albert Einstein) «The truth should be drawn with the help of the cognitive computer visualization technology and should be presented to" an unlimited circle "of spectators in the form of color-musical cognitive images of its immanent essence.» (Alexander Zenkin «Scientific Counter-Revolution in Mathematics»). Information Era is "The era of people with mathematical mind"(Yuri Milner). "Shut up and calculate" any more won't pass, it is necessary to pass to "Understand and quickly calculate ". The Future requires an understanding and accurate calculation. I invite you to comment on and appreciate my essay.

    High regard,

    Vladimir

      Marc,

      Having had rating problems with my Firefox browser and with some 5 days remaining, I am revisiting essay I've read to see if rated. I find that I rated yours on 5/21.

      Have you had a chance to read and comment on mine?

      Jim

      Vladimir,

      Thank you for taking the time to read my essay. I am glad to hear that you agree with me that we should refocus education to leave more place for thinking about the future of humanity. I agree that "understand and quickly calculate" (with the help, if necessary, of powerful free math software such as Wolfram Alpha) should be the main goal of math education.

      I will comment on your essay on your forum.

      Marc

      Michael,

      I accept your challenge! :)

      I posted my review of your essay on your forum.

      Marc

      Dear Marc Seguin

      You succeeded to write very original essay about proposed topic.

      I agree that knowledge about future is important and that it is fine that it is united into one school subject. But, it is not easy to motivate people that they will accept this learning besides all other learning. But it will be fine to incorporate it to the other school subjects.

      One are of nearer future are electric cars. It can be presented to people, how cleaner would be cities, how healthier and nicer would be life with electric vehicles in majority. I think that larger interest given by such presentations can give such vehicles much sooner. I think, if we would be interested much more, such vehicles would exist in majority today already. We all can have impact on this, not only the car factories.

      You write also that you "spent 25 years exploring ways to teach introductory physics better." Thus, maybe you can be interested my paper about better visualization of special theory of relativity. Here is one good paper, which better introduces quantum mechanics (QM). Baez gave an example, how to more clearly introduce General relativity.

      My essay Best regards

      Janko Kokosar

        Janko,

        Thank you for taking the time to read my essay, and for the links: the article by Baez on general relativity seems particularly interesting!

        I have already read and rated your essay, but I didn't leave any comments. I will do so on your forum.

        Good luck in the contest!

        Marc

        Dear Marc Séguin,

        I take the extension of this forum as an opportunity to learn from your intellectual article. I wondered why I have not read it!

        For the first time, I am reading a piece that in my view is directly linked to the theme of this contest. Good job man! I found your assertion "striking an ever-evolving balance between technological advances and the

        social, psychological, spiritual, artistic and cultural aspects of the lives of the citizens of the world" clearly overwhelming. This is also my main goal of my article.

        You deserve an award in this contest. I have increased your leadership by rating you high.

        I will invite you to read my article STRIKING A BALANCE BETWEEN TECHNOLOGY AND ECOSYSTEM using this direct link http://fqxi.org/community/forum/topic/2020

        Your comments and rating will be well appreciated.

        Expecting your appearance on my essay.

        With highest regard to you Marc,

        Gbenga

          I never thought of that before, but I was the same. Only later in life did I lose my indifference to history; as though first I had to acquire a past of my own. Then it became a favourite topic. - Mike

          Thanks Marc, Yours is one of the more innovative theses, which makes it riskier. I see a possible trilemma. My question depends on which of the three horns applies to your thesis. The first two assume that we already know where to steer, and how:

          1. Let's just do it. Already the thinkers have the knowledge and the movers and shakers the power, so let's get going and steer the future. Why bother launching a Worldwide Futurocentric Education Initiative (WFEI)?

          2. No, we cannot just do it. We've the knowledge but not the power. We're blocked by political opponents which requires us to "start by influencing the minds of the most people possible" (p. 3). For this, we will launch WFEI.

          Then what prevents those same political opponents from blocking WFEI?

          3. Actually, we haven't the knowledge. So we'll launch WFEI and get more people to think about the steering problem in their spare time.

          Given that our brightest minds, experts and professionals are lost on the question of where best to steer, or how best to steer, then how could ordinary folks (the rest of us) clear up the confusion?

          (Or did I misunderstand your thesis? Or err in my analysis?) - Mike

          Gbenga,

          Thank you for the very nice comments you made on my essay!

          I have read and rated your essay a few weeks ago, but I didn't leave any comments back then. I will now do so on your forum.

          Good luck in the contest!

          Marc