Doug, I like you "metaphor" of the path integral. It is good that you manged to get some real physics into your essay as we are supposed to. I am sure you know that when Dirac first though of a path integral in physics he saw it is more of a metaphor than a real theory. Feynman realized that it really works and is not just a metaphor. perhaps the same is true of your idea here.

I appreciate the idea that it is not just the classical path that counts. We need some thinking away from the mainstream to contribute its part. It is just a case of getting the right Lagrangian so that everything has the right weight and leads to the correct unbiased answer. I think some AI technology will use this kind of technique to get the right conclusions from the sum of human thinking and help steer humanity

Hi Leo,

Thanks for reading my essay and our comments. Yes Feynman is a very good and interesting physicist. I will try to have a look at our essay especially as you mention that it has some connection to "sum over histories" which at least on the surface would appears to give some connection to one of the themes of my own essay.

Best,

Doug

Hi Phil ,

Man thanks for reading my essay and your comments. Yes, my invocation of the path integral is to be taken as a very loose metaphor -- and as you reminded me this was in fact the spirit in which Dirac put forward the idea. I could have written the whole essay without the path integral metaphor, but I wanted to bring some connection to physics into the essay. The basics thrust of the essay is that humanity should be open to trying different paths *and* then should select those paths as "best" which lead to a good outcome based on objective criteria. Also I want to emphasize the suggestion is an experimental one in that one should try these paths out on a small scale and those which prove to be good then scale up.

Physics/science for example used to be more open to trying different approaches. At the beginning of the 20th century SR, GR and QM showed that that idea that humanity almost knew all there was to know about the natural world (modulo some "i" dotting and "t" crossing) was wrong. Moreover these theories were almost immediately validated up to a certain limit by experiment. At present none of the small number of ideas of what comes next (string theory, loop quantum gravity, large/warped extra dimensions) has any unambiguous experimental support. For this reason my proposal is experimentally based -- if some societal path does not give good results based on some objective criteria it should be abandoned. A lot of bad results have occurred when people have tried to do top down social engineering and the refused to abandon a given approach when it was proven experimentally not to work e.g. Pol Pot sticking with his odd agrarian version of communism even when it was apparent to everyone that this was a very wrong path.

Anyway thanks for reading my essay and best of luck in the contest.

Doug

Doug,

Judy pointed out my reply re electrons/photons could be misconstrued as assuming photons as spin 1/2. I'm sure you didn't read it as that but I wasn't clear Invoking OAM for spin 1/2 merely put electrons under the same laws as photons, each of which may be 'observed' as either clockwise or anticlockwise subject to observer (simplify to 'photomultiplier') electron field spin orientation.

Weihs, Zeilinger et al used a PAIR of photomultipliers. They found a 'rotation' from the filter (in their case an opto-electric 'analyser' so voltage dependent), which implicitly meant the findings were REVERSED at beyond 90 degrees. Of course there's no direct proof of that unless each pair is identified, but the circumstantial evidence is irresistable and resolves the (vast majority) anomalous data in Aspects findings.

It's really then just a case of 'joined up' science. Finding a more consistent description in one field that then also resolves problems in the one next door. Hannes Alfven described how he had to FORCE scientists in one lab to speak to those down the corridor as between them they solved each others problems. But they still hated doing so!

This solution leads direct to Unification (did you pick up on how?) Seemingly the only clear direction we should be steering, though most are still not looking or seeing. Is anyone prepared to act rather than just semanticise to make it happen? What else could I do?

Best wishes

Peter

Dear Douglas,

no doubt your essay scores high in terms of originality, although, based just on the title, I had hoped for some deeper connection between the path integral concept and some novel way to look at the business of steering our future. However, you are honestly declaring that the metaphor is loose, which, in a way, makes the reader (or this reader) more relaxed and more willing to appreciate the several interesting examples that you mention. Your prose is fluent and, occasionally, pleasingly humorous. The idea to keep the reader under a multi-continental shower for such a long time is quite effective.

One small criticism. I liked the idea to distinguish (in the first section) between large and small events, and the associated dualism of known unkowns and unknown unknowns; there are unpredictable small events which can have a large positive impact on the course of humanity (this made me think of complex systems, emergence, and the antipodal butterfly that I mention in my essay, which is, however, malicious). I got the impression that the rest of the paper would concentrate on these events - the most interesting type, of course! However that distinction is basically lost in the remaining three sections, where nothing seems to relate to it, at least not explicitly. What you do is basically support the idea of trying many alternative implementations of small projects, while somehow forgetting that dualism. In fact, it seems to me that these projects could only deal with the `known unknown` case, and not with the more attractive (and difficult) alternative. But maybe I have missed some intended logical link. In this case, I`d appreciate your reply.

Best regards

Tommaso

Hi Peter,

No I didn't think you were mixing up spin 1/2 of the electron with spin 1 of the photon, or that you thought the photon was spin 1/2. It is true that since the photon is massless it has only two polarization states (the longitudinal state that is found in massive spin 1 gauge bosons is missing for the photon since it is massless) which is the same as the electron (it also has two polarization states +1/2 and -1/2). Your point that you can view the spin of teh electron as fundamentally the same as the spin of the photon is correct in the sense discussed in the H. Ohanian AJP article "What is Spin?" which I mentioned earlier. In fact this article shows that electron spin is connected with a rotational energy flow in the Dirac field that describes the electron, just as for the photon one can obtain the spin via a rotational energy flow in the E&M field as described by Maxwell's eqns. (and a simple Bohr-like quantization requirement at the end).

Also I think it would be a great idea to do the EPR type experiment with electrons rather than photons since electrons carry not only spin but also a gauge charge (i.e. electric charge). As far as I know the Aspect type experiments have not been done with particles carrying gauge charges.

Best,

Doug

Hi Tommaso,

Thanks for reading and commenting on my essay. Your criticism is on point. I was not able to weave the idea of unknown unknowns (and how one avoids negative examples of these and steers toward positive examples of these) into the essay as much as I would have liked or should have. This is discussed in much more detail in the book by Nassim Taleb "The Black Swan" which I reference. Taleb's point is that one should try to build a society which is accepting and encourages good "black swan events" (i.e. events for which one can not even begin to calculate probabilities) and which is hardened against bad "black swan events". My path integral metaphor (i.e. try many paths approach) is a way of trying to access the good "black swan events". My essay does not give much/anything in terms of how to harden society against bad "black swan events" (and in this regard Taleb also does not give much advice -- more than I was able to do but still not much -- since his view is that since these events are fundamentally unpredictable it is hard to prepare for them. He does make some suggestions, but nothing very concrete. If a bad "black swan event" occurs because of it's unpredictable nature one can not say definitely if one could ever prepare enough. This is a bit fatalistic and Taleb gives some more insight into how to harden society against bad unknown unknowns.

Anyway thanks for reading and for your very good and perceptive comment. I will try to have a look at your essay before the 30th. I am traveling for a day to my summer position at UNAM, but hope to settle in quickly and get back to reading the various essays I promised to read and had listed to read.

Best,

Doug

Dear prof. Singleton,

Wonderful essay! I enjoyed your path integral analogy very much, and I strongly agree with your opinion. Humanity should try as many paths as possible to reach the most successful one.

You write "If on the other hand one funds many small scale projects there is a better chance one or more of these approaches will prove beneficial." This brings to my mind the rising importance of small science projects vs. big projects, which I discuss in my essay. I would be honored if you read it and told me your opinion.

Best regards,

Mohammed

    Great essay, Douglas. The path integral metaphor is beautiful and evocative (and among other things reminds me how much I loved Feynman's little book on QED). I completely agree with you on the advantages of social experimentation. I think Diamond is right to argue that Europe's fragmentation gave cities and states the space to experiment that eventually produced modern liberal democracy and capitalism.

    You anticipated and addressed almost all the caveats that struck me. As you say, institutional structures may not scale up (or down--it's easier in many ways, for example, to address the entire US health care market at once than in pieces). And politics constrains what's possible, since we aren't governed by technocratic utility maximizers.

    I would also add that while we may not have the ability to control which black-swan events befall us--this is what I write in my own essay--we can nevertheless make society more resilient to unexpected shocks. We can't prevent lightning from striking, but we can ensure ourselves against damage. In general, I think we should prepare not just for our median, best guess about the future, but for as much of the space of potential futures as possible.

    Again, great essay. It deserves to do well.

    Best,

    Robert de Neufville

      Doug,

      I agree with an electron experiment, but not sure it's doable. Photons do fine to verify my thesis, o consistent with the links you give and many others. It ideally needs a 'range' of settings, filters and p-multiplyers to give enough data points to prove it's an elephant not the present camel! I'd have thought predicting the unexplained Aspect and Weihs data may have carried some weiht! (lol) but it seems old doctrine needs to be crushed to death before anyone will even look. I'm not sure that's possible.

      Victor Vaguine's essay is interesting, including the Bell interview excerpt from 'Ghost in the Atom'; Question: "And you can't imagine a more elaborate arrangement that might expose these defects in quantum mechanics?"

      John Bell: "I cannot, but I hope that's only because of my limitations. I think it is very probable that the solution to our problems will come through the back door; some person who is not addressing himself to these difficulties with which I am concerned will probably see the light. An analogy that I like is that of the fly buzzing against a window when the door is open. It can be extremely useful to stand back from your problems and just wonder about for a time, and it is quite possible that those of us who are somewhat fixated on these questions will not be those who see the way through".

      He was almost certainly right. But unfortunately it seems even if a large butterfly shows the way in the flies will still insist there isn't one because the glass is still intact. How can that be overcome? I suggest a paper with a dozen or more authors may be needed to be taken seriously be editors. What do you think?

      Peter

      Glad to see your essay bouncing back after a probable sneak assault with 1's. I'm still getting them too. Hold tight for the roller coaster!

      Hi Doug,

      I'm very pleased that you liked my approach, as you appear to be the only other author to apply a physics metaphor to the problem.

      We do agree on the central point of your essay, which is to 'try all paths' instead of a centralized command and control.

      You mentioned that the path integral approach is a very close connection to thermodynamics/statistical mechanics. I have recently re-awakened to the fact that the Wick rotation will convert the partition function into a path integral and vice versa. I've spent some time on this amazing fact, and I plan to spend more.

      Perhaps we can continue this discussion offline.

      Congratulations on your current well-deserved high ranking in the contest.

      By the way I received the 23 May 2014 issue of 'Science' in the mail this morning. It has a whole special section dedicated to "the Science of Inequality". There may be a new field budding.

      My best regards

      Edwin Eugene Klingman

      Hi Robert,

      Thanks for reading my essay and your comments. Yes one of the things that my essay touches on (but as noted above by Tommaso I did not weave in enough detail into my essay) is that society should try to minimize the effects of bad black swan events, while simultaneously trying to be more ready and open in accepting good black swan events. And these are exactly the points you mention above. One example of how society should be more open to good black swan events is Hero's steam engine. Hero of Alexandria invented a simple form of steam engine some time in the first century. However the society at the time viewed it as a toy and the world had to wait until James Watt re-invented the steam engine in the 1780s. Of course Hero's steam engine was a far cry from Watts' but the basic ideas were there, but the mind set of the society at the time did not grab on to this as anything useful. Contrast that with modern society where when things like the laser and NMR first came out people did not immediately see the usefulness of these scientific advances, but within decades they are integral parts of our technology and science. So the same thing seems like it would be a useful tact to try with other parts of society.

      Thanks again for reading and your excellent comment. I will try to read your essay before the deadline.

      Best regards,

      Doug

      Douglas,

      The reason why you didn't comment on my essay might be your disagreement with paths of reasoning that I adopted from Galileo, Nobel, Michelson, and Shannon who deviated from current Ein(stein)stream.

      On the other hand, I am sure some basic arguments must not be ignored:

      - The only acceptable human perspective is that of mankind as a whole, not of any single national path; ethics must be adapted appropriately.

      - The future is open.

      - Non-causality only occurs as an artifact.

      - All paths of reality are directed ahead.

      - War, malnutrition, illnesses etc. were necessary and must be substituted instead of fighting against mere symptoms of irresponsible developments.

      - Within foreseeable future mankind has only one earth.

      - Paths of obvious fraud, e.g. claimed achieved cold fusion, are futile.

      - While the topic "How should humanity steer the future?" suggests taking the somewhat illusory position of someone who steers e.g. by selected funding, I see the possibilities to anticipate discoveries and inventions rather limited.

      Let me tell a story: A man who chaired an institute about 30 years ago dared promising to government and party in what was the GDR (Eastern part of Germany) to deliver exactly 40 inventions in honor of their 40th anniversary. Most of these planned inventions were, of course, close to fraud.

      Don't you agree?

      Best,

      Eckard

      Dear Douglas Singelton

      You found a good analogy between path integrals and diversity, which is necessary in selection of good ideas. Another analogy are also neuronal networks. You also included the Black Swan theory. The first condition is that there is a lot of ideas. Capitalism and free market are also more successful than socialism because this diversity is allowed. Non-diversity was also one of the causes for the last financial crisis.

      But we need also large scale planning or state initiative. Military research, for instance, gave that the internet arose. Similar diversity in needed also for publication of scientific papers, but here it is almost embargo for papers which are not from universities. It is written by Gibbs. This is analogically as free market embargo. Your formula for relations between energy and civilisations is also in connection with the paper, which try to find explanation, how life evolved. He claims that more developed life forms use more energy and so they are increasing entropy. I claim that mammals use more energy than lizards. Even today more developed cultures use more energy and causes more pollution (entropy). But, I think that computer technology reduces entropy, a little.

      My essay

      Best regards

      Janko Kokosar

        Douglas,

        I have responded to your comments in my thread (under the common accidental Anonymous nickname!).

        I also added the following:

        PS - I know that the deadline is approaching. I did rate your essay, a few days ago, after commenting. You write that you hope to find more time to give a more thorough reading to my work. If this means that you have not yet rated it, please do (the deadline is approaching). Rating here is definitely a complex system. I`ve been for a long time in the top 15, but a couple of days ago, probably due to a malicious antipodal butterfly, I jumped to around rank 30 in one shot, which looks strange to me under both a continuous and a discrete mathematical viewpoint.

        Hi Douglas,

        Thanks for the interesting essay.

        I think you might find some connection with my essay on computationally intelligent personal dialogic agents. This system (I have a prototype developed as part of a NSF CAREER award) can "steer" individual interactions by providing guidance in the moment of action. I envision many kinds of evaluation incorporating a multitude of factors as the system "tests" different interventions in human dialogue. It will be able to take your idea of evaluating many small projects and moving them to the level of conversations.

        I'd appreciate a rating, if you can do that, since I am a bit short on ratings, and also appreciate it if you know of any potential collaborators in the further development of the dialogic system.

        Thanks,

        Ray Luechtefeld, PhD

          Hi Janko,

          Thanks for reading my essay and now that we have more time I will be able to read yours.I still have a list of other essays I promised to read, but the points you make are interesting and appear to have some connection to some of the themes in my essay. In regard to capitalism vs. socialism I would say one needs a socialistic form of capitalism :-) or probably more plainly capitalism with socialistic constraints in order to make the system a fair competition. For example, after the fall of the Soviet Union there was probably no more purely capitalistic place on Earth than Russia -- everything was for sale. But very quickly the wealth of Russia was concentrated into the hands of a few oligarchs. What seems to happen in unfettered capitalism (at least this appeared the case in Russia) was that after a brief period of competition the "winners" would use their position to unfairly crush the competition at which point one no longer had real capitalism -- a fair and open market place. Thus my conclusion was that one needed some outside constraints in place to prevent this from happening. However if some country becomes too regulated this is also not good.

          On a different topic I agree with Phil Gibbs' critic of peer review. A lot of nonsense gets published that is just minor piddling with equations, and some stuff gets rejected that is really worthwhile. In this regard Phil is correct that not having an academic affiliation will put you already at a disadvantage. However, even if you have an academic affiliation and even if you have won a Nobel prize there can be resistance if you propose a really new idea. Look at the discussion above with Peter Jackson. He mentions a Nobel laureate in chemistry (Dan Shecktman) who proposed some novel idea in chemistry but had his work rejected for a long time. In a recent Cosmos episode it is discussed how Faraday's later ideas of E&M fields were ignored despite his many earlier successes. Finally there is the case of Julian Schwinger, one of the giants of 20th century physics, being rejected when he started to work on a theoretical basis for cold fusion. Cold fusion of course in regard to the original claims appears wrong, but there nevertheless seems to be some interesting but not understood reaction going on and at the time it was not clear immediately this was wrong so Schwinger was looking to see if there was some theoretical basis for this. I think Schwinger was so upset/disgusted with the reaction of his peers that he quit the National Academy of Science.

          Anyway I will get to your essay before next Friday. Best,

          Doug