Hi Don,
your essay is a huge fun to read and sets the stage for all kinds of possible interpretations and answers to the quest of determinism / free will. The openness of your conversation reflects the openness of the question, although both persons in your essay (ha, ha) do believe to have the ultimate answer. But wait a minute, do they really believe, or are they forced to blieve due to determinism... (ha, ha). Believing to win the contest prize may be determined, while the actual result will not confirm it... (ha, ha)... due to determinism.... so you had a true belief about determinism but a false belief about its future results. Or maybe you belief in free will and are indeed right about it, but you've had a false belief in what it can achieve (namely winning the contest's prize, ha, ha)!
Your short essay is a perfect mirror of the unsolved questions and a projection field to possible answers. I like it because it's funny and it counteracts those views which pretend to know for sure what the answer is. Surely, my own answer is also only based on beliefs, but i think the main point, as always with fundamental questions, is how one rates certain probabilities for the truth of a certain answer. This i think depends on certain experiences one made during one's life, it also depends on proper logical thinking and most of all on the experience that there are no anomalies in nature observed, for example nothing does pop up suddenly from 'nothing' (what a word-game!). This is, i think, in contrast to the view that existence is just a brute fact which has its origins in absolutely 'nothing' (not even in a mathematically empty set). Since nothing has ever popped up out of nothing (what a word-game!), i feel myself forced to conclude that nature has indeed a highly lawful behaviour (because if it had been possible for something to suddenly pop up out of nothing, these events should have been captured by some creation myths delivered to us from the past [well, but only if these creation myths have not suddenly popped out of reality into nothing again...!... and therefore aren't available to us anymore.].
I rated your essay with the highest score and thank you very much for this enjoyable piece of paper!
Best wishes,
Stefan Weckbach