Hi Jochen, thank you for your comment and all the very important questions and remarks therein.
Firstly I want to mention that I do not believe in mathematical infinities as ontologically real facts - be it physically or as a platonic fact. This concept of infinities is suspect to me, I view the notion of 'infinite' as an alternative term for 'undefined'.
Although I did not explicitely write about the issue of infinity in my essay, an aspect of it seems to me the problem of infinite recursive reasoning, especially about what is fundamentally true in physics and nature.
To remove any misunderstandings, I certainly believe two things: firstly that there is a true ontology behind all phenomena and hence I consider it as true that "this machine halts" should be either true or false - as long as if follows the valid definitions of turings halting problem and all the subsequent consequences derived from it. Even for the case of Chaitin's results I would say that a machine defined according to his framework must either halt or not - to whatever objective reasons.
So truth is not exclusively a subjective, relative concept, in my opinion. The question is rather whether or not our contemporary picture of reality as exclusively only following the first three causes of Aristotle (as mention in my essay and in footenote 2) is complete or not. And surely, I think that also this question has a definite answer, independent of whether I can know it or not.
I think that for coming closer to truth for whether or not the ontological reality merely encompasses the first three Aristotelian causes, one has to consider the possibility that the first three causes of Aristotle are merely limiting cases of the fourth cause Aristotle gives.
As you surely are aware of, the question about the truth or falsity of any theory that purports to having captured all 'necessary' ingredients to be a complete theory for at least all physical phenomena (and therefore for the contemporarily purported ontological framework of exclusively *non-subjective* causes) must necessarily be causally closed. With 'causally closed' I do not only mean that it encompasses all three Aristotelian causes, it even may incorporate true irreducible randomness - the latter in the sense of some timeless or time-dependent quantum fluctuations.
According to the picture of such a causally closed system, one cannot label other reasons for the modal ontology for whole existence (ultimate reality) than merely refer to either randomness - which must then be governed by some eternal mathematics (probabilities etc.) or to a strict determinism, or eventually to both.
Nevertheless, as you rightfully wrote in your own essay, understanding something is (at least in parts) equivalent to give a step-by-step description. By such a step-by-step analysis I come to the conclusion that for the cases that such a causally closed explanation for the ontological status of ultimate reality should be fundamentally true, it implies the following truths:
1. If someone claims that ultimate reality is strictly deterministic, this implies that she or he had to come to this conclusion just the way she / he did, and no jota other. It further implies that consciousness is an inevitably ontological phenomenon. It also implies that I had no other chance then to write exactly these lines of reasoning to you.
2. If someone claims that ultimate reality is irreducibly random at its core ('quantum fluctuations and the like), this either necessitates an eternal realm where at least the probabilistic framework of mathematics resides, or - vaguely in the spirit of the MUH - it implies that 'quantum fluctuations and the like' *are* in some sense the mathematics with which we assumed to merely *describe* those fluctuations. In fact, this mathematics then couldn't be anymore the traditionally fixed mathematics, but must have a random element. Hence, this kind of 'platonic realm' would be kind of dynamical in which mathematical truths are randomly generated by the mysterious power of mathematics to generate truly random values. Alternatively one could understand randomness in mathematics as an infinite sea of prefixed mathematical relations of any conceivable combination. So, if someone claims that ultimate reality is irreducibly random, what she / he means is either irreducible randomness in the absence of any platonic mathematical realm (ex nihilo truths), or that there has to exist an eternal platonic mathematical realm consisting of infinitely many prefixed mathematical relations of any conceivable combinations.
3. If someone claims that ultimate reality is a mixture of determinism and irreducible randomness, this necessitates that either this mixture came about ex nihilo, or that determinism and 'irreducible' randomness can be reduced to an eternally existing platonic mathematical realm consisting of infinitely many prefixed mathematical relations of any conceivable combinations. Alternatively one could interpret the mentioned claim as being a mixture of eternally prefixed mathematical relations and some ex nihilo created new mathematical relationships. This would necessitate that the eternal prefixed part of mathematics cannot be complete, since otherwise every 'new ex nihilo created' mathematical relationship would already be contained within the eternal prefixed part of the platonic mathematical realm. It is obvious that the latter possibility is completely indistinguishable from an infinite, prefixed platonic realm of mathematics. Any purported claim that it should nonetheless be distinguishable due to the very fact that there is indeed a dynamical external world out there that 'proves' that the platonic mathematical realm has to be understood as a *dynamical* realm - is anthropical reasoning, based on the fact that mathematics is indeed able to give a *coarse-grained* step-by-step description of some physical dynamics.
Let me resume point 3 a bit more detailed.
If it is true that the real meaning of mathematics has to be understood as a dynamical realm of mathematical relationships, this necessitates ex nihilo creations of mathematical relationships which are genuinly irreducibly random. The latter in the sense that every such creation at point t in time could have reasonably been also another relationship, other than that which has been created ex nihilo. So, if it is indeed true - and for the sake of my following arguments I will adopt the truth of the claim - that the real meaning of mathematics is that the latter is of a dynamical ontology which executes ex nihilo creations, then the big question is how this dynamics and especially its ex nihilo creative part is able to facilitate at all observers which can capture this truth. Surely and obviously, this must be impossible, since all we are talking about here is conditionally restricted by merely assuming that the claim in question is indeed true. We are not talking about that we unequivocally have found that this claim *must* be true. It does not help to push the lack of objectifiability for this claim a level up the chain of step-by-step descriptions. Even if we *assume* that there is a multiverse out there and in some multiverses observers indeed unequivocally can capture the truth of the claim in question - this would again not only be merely an assumption, but due to the very axioms of the claim in question, in every 'branch' of such a multiverse, observers could merely conclude what we conclude in our branch.
To make my long story short here: For explaining what generated some dynamics for a physical world to exist at all, one is left with some mysterious power of mathematics to do that and / or with some creation ex nihilo.
If we allow ex nihilo creations, we either allow the existence of a God in the traditional sense, or we allow what I called in my essay 'nothing' as an ontological fact. So the only way to escape both possibilities is to adopt that there necessarily has to exist something eternally from which the existence of our physical world can be derived. This could be the mysterious power of a platonic realm of mathematics - or simply the eternal existence of physical stuff, for example some steady-state universe.
Surely one can also assume that an eternally existing, finite landscape of platonical mathematical relationships, together with some ex nihilo creation, should be the ontologically real deal. But in my opinion, this would merely increase the mysterium of existence - especially the mysterium why there should be eternal existence of something and at the same time there should be the fact of ex nihilo creations.
In a very deep sense, the combination of eternal mathematics with ex nihilo creations merely resembles what human beings have figured out millennia ago, namely the possibility that there could exist an eternal thing - God - that is able to bring about some ex nihilo creation. Albeit the eternal realm of mathematics together with some ex nihilo creation of randomness seems to be able to explain some coarse-grained regularities of nature, I think it completely fails to explain the existence of consciousness and its ability to indeed capture some coarse-grained truths about ontological reality. Take for example the truth that every object falls down to earth or all the other physical facts that enable us to build all sorts of machines that follow in their behaviour at least a coarse-grained model we have about the behaviour of nature. How could this be related to your result that a model facilitated by human consciousness can at all capture some coarse-grained truths about external reality? It is because such coarse-grained models indeed are able to incorporate some coarse-grained truths of external reality and therefore aren't anymore merely models, but truths. The latter surely only if we exclude that there could be possible some miracles that could immediately contradict these truths, miracles either produced by God or by some random ex nihilo creation. If we exclude the latter two options, then our coarse-grained truths are at least true as long as as our accompanied laws of nature are true.
The question then is under what conditions these laws of nature could be only temorarily true. It could well be that these laws of nature can change with time (albeit surely within some rather large time-spans). I cannot exclude this possibility. At least in my essay I gave a minimal interpretation of what it could reasonably mean that those laws of nature could only be temporarily true. This would be the case if mathematics itself would be only temporarily true.
Regarding to the empirical content of physical theories and Popper, I would say that falsifying a certain prediction of a theory falsifies the theory as it stands. Surely there is the possibility to adapt the theory somewhat to incorporate the result of some experiment. One then had to look for another prediction of the adapted theory to be tested for its empirical content. As far as explanations are involved in the original, non-adapted version of the theory, I think it is not always easy to hold such explanations when the theory is adapted to the result of the first experiment. At least if such an explanation is equal to a fundamental principle one assumes to have discovered in nature. So, generally, I think that the falsificationist credo crititcally hinges on whether or not a certain theory has stated such a fundamental principle - or has stated rather a trivial prediction which is rather non-conclusive to decide whether or not the theory has any empirical content.
Concering what you wrote as
"However, I think you're selling logic short. Not all logic is deterministic---there are probabilistic logics, fuzzy logic, etc. Some systems of logic (paraconsistent logics) are even capable of dealing with inconsistencies---although they're a little out there for my taste. I'd want to keep the principle of explosion. And your leap from the examples you give to stipulating that 'every rule has an exception' seems a little quick, and far, to me."
I am aware of these logical systems. They are all concerned with issues like consistency and provability. Using one or the other of these systems surely depends on situative circumstances, not on eternal truths, as long as one does not mix them up into a kind of eternally fixed, logico-mathematical landscape of exclusively only relative truths. But even in doing so, the truth that all truths are somehwat relative must then itself be a fundamental truth. As I tried to lay out in footenote 6 of my essay, it seems to me to be impossible to unequivocally prove such a logico-mathematical landscape to have any ontological reality other than existing in the minds of people that believe in it. Even for the case that such a logico-mathematical landscape unavoidably necessitates the existence of consciousness, the fact of the latter's existence cannot be modeled other then by admitting that there is consciousness which is able to assume something non-conclusive about itself, namely that it should be a product of the assumed logico-mathematical landscape. Stated differently: I think that such a logico-mathematical landscape does merely exist in the imagination of someone who states that it must exist independently of him / her. It is a model of what lies at the very foundations of ultimate reality and the fact that a model is in fact a step-by-step description, as well as mathematics is, the believer in such a logico-mathematical landscape step-by-step infers that heself must be part of such a landscape, since all he has at hand are step-by-step descriptions which lead him in a self-confirming manner to the conclusion that step-by-step descriptions must be the ultimate foundation of reality. On the basis that such step-by-step description is not possible for the believer's own realm of consciousness, he concludes that such a step-by-step description nonetheless must nonethless exist objectively when adding an additional realm of step-by-step dynamics by means of a dynamically behaving logico-mathematical landscape. The latter then surely contains the exact step-by-step description of the believer's own contents of consciousness - including the assumption that such an additional realm has to exist 'independent' of whether or not he believes in it.
The crucial point here is, that in the framework of such a believer, his own belief in his very framework has been brought about by his very framework in manner that is in no way controllable by himself, because neither a deterministic step-by-step dynamics nor ex nihilo creations nor pseudo-randomness leave any room for a kind of limited free-will that is able to decide between two mutually exclusive alternatives. The framework may be consistent, but is incompatible with the kind of free-will I mentioned and with every-day life that demands that we are fully responsible for deciding between two mutually exclusive alternatives.
In my essay, I take consciousness serious in regards to every-day experience and responsibility in the sense that I assume it as a thing that at least has its roots not in the realm of time and space, and also not in the realm of some eternal mathematical landscape.
As you may have noticed, I purport the view that mathematics is merely of temporal truth, since in my framework the existence of mathematics is the result of a free-will based decision of an observer that I identify with the more traditional concept of God (hence, not some artifical God, produced by some omegapoint or something like that). My concept of God is that whatever we call this God, it is fundamentally non-formalizable truth far beyond ex nihilo randomness or mathematically tracable relationships. Of course, the fundamental relationships that are true in the realm of such a God are at the one hand indeed anthropically inferred truths, as for example the existence of love and some kind of free-will, but on the other hand go parallel with the absence of any necessity to describe the real intentions of such a God exhaustively in terms of step-by-step descriptions - with the exception that these intentions can to different degrees be *felt* by human beings. For example when they share love, are happy or even lucky.
Regarding my Rule F, I invented it as a reductio ad absurdum for every attempt to take a viable TOE that exlusively only follows the path of mathematical step-by-step descriptions to ever say something conclusively why human beings have at all the experiences they have, why they at all are existent and feel what they feel. I think as long as such questions are not considered to be valid, one cuts out an important factor of reality. Surely, no TOE in the sense of a scientific, physical explanation of existence is ever conducted to answer those questions, because they are theological in nature. But on the other hand, as I hopefully made clear, the assumption of an eternal realm of mathematics together with some ex nihilo creations is likewise a kind of theological explanation, because they purport to explain human feelings as the result of some mathematical dynamics without ever being able to unequivocally proving it. Every such purported proof must, in my opinion remain in the realm of mere correlations between some brain activities and some mathematical descriptions of what one assumes is causing certain Qualia.
My rule F can be stated without the flavour of self-reference by simply saying "No rule without an exception, but not for rule F" (in a comment above to Lawrence Crowell I explained how to better grasp the content of such a rule, for its only content is about rules and exceptions, means content and form are interchangeable without altering the invariant truth of it). I do not purport that such a rule indeed does exist (although I cannot exclude it), this rule is just a placeholder to question our rigid rule-dependend models of reality and suggest that this thinking can be transcended. In my essay, I made such an attempt to transcend it by pointing to the question what truth is and in which sense its existence is necessary to sufficiently explain existence itself. Self-evidently my conclusion is that at the very foundation of ultimate reality, there should be some fundamental truth, if we at all are able to speak meaningfully about ultimate reality. And self-evidently existence itself is a truth. And self-evidently, if 'nothing' would be indeed possible, this would be also a truth. I further think that 'nothing' as I defined it in my essay and an assumed eternally existing mathematical lanscape are completely equivalent when it comes to the question 'what is the ultimate truth?'. I conclude this because although the popularily purported view of ultimate reality being a mathematical landscape that must be considered as eternal, the latter is the very reason that the whole content of this mathematical landscape, as well as its included properties of conistency, inconsistency, provability and unprovability are at the end of the day not only not just relative truths, but by the very definition of 'relative truth' as abstract relationships that make no distinction between consistency and inconsistency - they are as random as the existence of such a mathematical landscape itself. With randomness I mean here that there is no cause (none of the four Aristotelian causes) that could support this landscape's existence to be eternal and reasonable. Note that these conclusions are made from the bird's perspective, looking at this landscape at a whole (from the frog's perspective there are indeed reasons to assume such a landscape, namely the fact that nature can be at all desribed mathematically). From this bird's perspective I conclude that, although mathematics is concerned with symbol manipuation, nothing within this whole landscape necessitates that there should be a criterion like consistency or inconsistency. I could well also assume that there is an eternal landscape that produces arbitrary different symbols, phenomena and subjective impressions no observer could extract any meaning out of them (like the stone you mentioned in your reply to my comment on your essay page) which are *not* concatenated or permutated, but appear to a potential observer as far beyond our notion of randomness. For excluding the latter scenario (furtherly called 'weird scenario'), platonists had to explain why mathematics comes with the feature of consistency and inconsistency at all. Obviously, my statement that "appear to a potential observer as far beyond our notion of randomness" presupposes that we have this model of randomness at hand, to compare it with the latter scenario. Therefore, by comparing this scenario with the contents of a traditional platonic realm with some randomness in it or not, I see only empirical arguments against the 'weired scenario', but no logical ones. The reason why there aren't such logical arguments at hand is rooted in the problem of induction - the observation of an observed rule does not imply that this rule is eternal or fundamental. Therefore the assumption of the existence of an eternal platonic realm is just an induction, an extrapolation. What guarantees that this platonic realm does not suddenly chance into a 'weird scenario'? I think the only answer that one can give to this question is that logics - altough necessarily not in its antivalent form - must play a crucial role at the heart of ultimate reality. Dropping the assumption that there is a realm of existence without antivalent logics (in the sense of a realm of fundamental truths as outlined in my essay), leaves us with antivalent thinking and the possibility of the 'weird scenario'. This 'weird scenario' then could be equivalently be considered as 'nothing' - playing some weird tricks on us by 'randomly' producing a seemingly consistent world. So the asumption of an eternal platonic realm of mathematics - with or without randomness - is just an extrapolation, an induction, as well as its feature of consistency and its very unchangeable properties are: if mathematical values can be created ex nihilo, can they also again vanish into 'nothing', one is tempted to ask. More serious, if mathematical consistency depends on some values created ex nihilo, can the very feature of mathematics, namely consistency, also vanish into 'nothing'? What guarantees that this landscape isn't just a lucky fluke - together with our universe? Well, these have been the questions I was concerned about in my essay, albeit due to restrictions of characters, I couldn't write them all down, but have done it with this rather epic comment!