Dear Ken,
Very enjoyable essay, well explained and insightful. You did a great job dispelling some superstitions even physicists have about the origin of the time arrow. I fully agree that no matter what one tries, the least problematic remains the past hypothesis. What amazes me is that I see once in a while people trying to explain the arrow of time by introducing some time asymmetry (with or without care to not be compensated by P and T symmetries) in the evolution equations themselves! In fact, even Penrose's Weyl Curvature Hypothesis is in my opinion not an explanation of the second law, but it may be a prediction of it, in the sense that at the Big Bang the sources of gravity exist, but the field didn't spread yet, somehow like the retarded solution of Maxwell's equations. Imposing WCH is equivalent to imposing law entropy for gravity, and it is just a partial restatement of the problem, not the explanation.
And I think you are right to propose that the boundary conditions may have the same status as the dynamical laws themselves. Now maybe this will lead, in the case of a universe which big-crunches itself (excluded by measurements of the cosmological constant) that the time arrow reverts when the universe reaches the mid-life crisis. But since it expands forever, maybe the initial and final boundary conditions manifest differently, even if they may be subject to the same principle. Maybe this can be connected to Penrose's Conformal Cyclic Cosmology (CCC), although there may be some complications here.
Your essay motivated me to organize some random thoughts I have about this subject.
So here is an idea I have about boundary conditions. I can call it "boundary law without boundary law", but is not as one may expect just another way to obtain boundary conditions out of the dynamics, as in fluctuations or Janus point. It is based on conformal symmetry. You know Maxwell's equations on Minkowski spacetime (backreaction ignored) are invariant to conformal transformations, which extend the Poincaré group. The conformal boundary of the Minkowski spacetime is mapped by conformal inversion to the lightcone at the origin, and vice-versa. So on the conformal boundary the (conformal transformations of the) solutions have the same kind of regularity as on the lightcone at origin. What's beautiful is that this conformal invariance applies to the entire Standard Model as long as all masses are 0, so his is equivalent to the absence/vanishing of the Higgs field (I don't know yet if this holds for the neutrino too). Now turn on gravity, the global properties of spacetime change. Maybe it is asymptotically flat, in which case the boundary remains similar. The conformal invariance is broken. But we know that there is a richer conformal invariance, the local one, consisting in rescaling the metric tensor independently at each point of spacetime. So I suspect that there is also a generalization of translations and in fact of the full conformal group. The reason I suspect this is that we still have conservation of momentum, because the stress-energy tensor is locally conserved, but it is local now. So I am in particular interested to see how I can make local the full conformal group. Now going back to the boundary, I suspect that some regularity persists even after we turn on gravity and the Higgs field. Even if maybe the conformal boundary changes because of the cosmological constant. So I think it worth seeing what are the effects on this regularity, what remains of it, after the breaking of the conformal symmetry. Note that maybe this can be connected to Penrose's CCC, but not necessarily, because maybe a scale inversion happens, maybe not, when crossing the final boundary to go back to the initial boundary. This needs to be investigated, maybe the asymmetry between the initial and final boundaries allow it, maybe not. If the asymmetry is too strong to admit scale inversions as in Penrose's CCC, I think this will be instead more like Penrose's WCH. Anyway, it seems to me that conformal symmetry may hold a key to obtain some boundary law from the dynamical law, in a fundamental way, as opposed to assuming fluctuations and anthropic principles.
About Boltzmann's brains, they indeed seem to be much more probable than any sort of stable brain which is the product of evolution. But there are two factors which I don't think were taken into account when making such calculations, at least not to my knowledge. Brains belonging to evolving species crowd together, both in time and space. In our world at least, life is finite, brains die and new brains are born, and they are born from one another. This implies a huge number of brains crowded together. One can speculate that it is possible to have species which are immortal, but it seems plausible that they are much rarer than species whose individuals have a reasonably short life span (but not too short), because this allows selection and evolution. So if we take this into account, could it be possible that the Boltzmann brains are in fact much less likely to exist than brains enrolled in a species? Moreover, a brain which is part of a surviving and evolving crowd, being subject to natural selection, it is much better adapted to observe the environment. So a crowd of n brains has a much larger probability than the probability of n independent Boltzmann brains. In the index counting of such brains we should also take into account not only the number of brains, but also their life span, so an ephemeral Boltzmann brain will be a very brief fluctuation very little connected to the environment, while for an observer it may be more likely to be part of a crowd of brains having longer lives. (of course the life span affects in two opposite ways this calculation). I think this argument relies on more parameters, and they are very difficult, if not impossible to estimate, and in addition we encounter similar problems as in the doomsday argument. Similarly for single planet orbiting a single star in a high-entropy background, we should take stability into account, Boltzmann brains may seem more likely, but it may be more likely for a mind to be in a stabler brain, and also stars tend to crowd too, although life on one planet seems not to be significantly correlated with life on other planets in the same galaxy. So although I think a boundary law or special initial conditions are a better explanation, it is not as easy to reject the explanation based on fluctuations based on Boltzmann brains.
After this long comment which turned into a mini-essay, how can I now invite you to also read my actual essay? :)))
Again, excellent essay! Good luck in the contest!
Best wishes,