Today is April 2014 and I have a prediction. My prediction is that on April 2016 this matter will not be settled.
The matter can be settled in a day: there is a beautiful computer simulation of the correlation which Joy claims it accurately represent his theory. This simulation displays correlations as a function of angles differences. The angles from this simulation is all that is needed to be provided to settle the bet. Due to inherent experimental errors, no experiment will come as close as this data to generate a perfect minus cosine correlation. The angle data has just to be saved on a file and provided for adjudication.
Still I predict that the long route will be chosen and an experiment will be attempted because the goal is not to settle the dispute but to drag it out indefinitely under false pretenses. I already suggested three alternatives to generate the data for the bet:
- dump the angle data from the simulation: this takes 5 minutes and costs nothing.
- create the data from scratch using the theory: this can take about a month of theoretical work and costs nothing.
- do the experiment: this should take 6 months to a year and can cost between 40-80 thousand dollars (for the worst case scenario: 40K salary for the post doc and 40K overhead).
None of the above options require the end date for the bet to be settled past April 2016.
Here is how I think the experiment will drag things out:
- unable to raise the required money: there are not enough willing donors for the required amount and no serous funding agency will provide the money
- no qualified person will want to do the experiment, particularly since there is computer simulation data which can easily prove the task is hopeless
In two years (or less) we will have one of the following outcomes:
1. Richard wins the bet (meaning Joy admits defeat) and also proves me wrong in my prediction.
2. The bet is not settled and I am right in today's prediction.
3. Joy wins the bet and proves that Richard and I have no clue of mathematics and shames us both.
In case Joy withdraws form the current bet I consider that he forfeited and lost and outcome 1 will happen: Richard proves me wrong in my assumption that Joy knows he is wrong but pretends he is right.
If outcome (1) is realized I will release Joy from his old bet/promise with me that he will withdraw from doing physics if he is wrong.