Hi Emily and George,
I seem to be in the strange position of having to disagree with both of you. On the one hand, I agree with George that it seems a bit absurd to assume that the appearance of your essay from random fluctuations must be much more probable than were it to have been written by a conscious person. On the other hand, I agree with Emily that random fluctuations can nevertheless give rise to complex phenomena. My reason for both stances is the same: "highly improbable" is not the same thing as "impossible."
This seems to be a common trait among humans in regard to our interpretation of statistical phenomena: an event that occurs is a priori assumed to be highly likely by dint of the fact that it has occurred in the first place. In light of additional information, the event's relative likelihood may be revised downward, but the fact of the matter is that it is initially assumed to be high simply because it happened. But even highly unlikely events still happen. My neighbor has been struck by lightning. If he grew up ignorant and isolated, he might be led to conclude that *everyone* gets struck by lightning which is absurd.
In short, an equally valid interpretation is that our memories are perfectly valid and correct but that the universe simply evolved in a highly unlikely (but not impossible) way. For example, suppose there is a spectrum of *possible* universes (these would be *actual* universes in an Everettian interpretation). Even if only a single universe occurs, nothing says it absolutely must be one of the more likely candidates. That's the point of a random process.
Also, one other point I wanted to make: entropy depends on how you define it. It is entirely possible to define it in such a way that a low entropy in the early universe is not unexpected.
Regardless of my aforementioned gripes, it was a nice essay. I found it to be well-written and carefully considered.
Ian Durham