Here is the "Multiverse Hypothesis probability computation" as I see it:
Let p(Un) be the probability that Universe number "n" has initial conditions and physical laws, such that they result in "intelligent life-forms", that attempt to understand how they came to exist.
The Multiverse Hypothesis can then be stated as:
The probability, P, that every such life-form exists, somewhere within the multiverse, is:
1) P = p0*{p(U1)+p(U2)+p(U3)+...} = 1,
2) since {p(U1)+p(U2)+p(U3)+...} = 1
3) and it is an unstated assumption, that p0 = 1
Statement (2) is the standard hypothesis that if you sum up an infinite number of all possibilities, the result is an inevitable total, cumulative probability of 1.
But what is p0, and why is it assumed to be exactly equal to 1?
p0 is the *a priori* probability that such a life-form must *necessarily* exist.
p0 = 1 means a lifeless multiverse is *known* to be impossible, even before any such life comes into existence.
The problem with this hypothesis is that, because its proponents do in fact *know* that p0 =1 *a posteriori*, they have unwittingly assumed that it must *necessarily* also be the case that p=1 *a priori*. But this assumption is false.
In other words, because they know, after some game has been won, that a winner actually exists, they have assumed, incorrectly, that it is impossible to create a game that can *never* be won.
Since it is not *a priori* necessary for a multiverse to exist, it cannot be *a priori* necessary for a multiverse with intelligent life-forms to exist. So p0 cannot equal 1. So the hypothesis fails to explain the only fact that it was created to explain; why p0 is known to equal 1, *a posteriori*.
Rob McEachern