Essay Abstract

Society has a delusion fostered by the powerful that continuing growth of the economy is possible. It conjures up the common belief that sufficient natural resources will continue to be available to enable this growth. This fallacy is examined in order to indicate means by which society can steer the future as contraction inevitably sets in. Can society meet the challenge of living with nature? The ELAM movement can lead the way. Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. It does this in providing the temporary infrastructure, goods and services society has become so dependent on. The operation of these technological systems is an unsustainable process that society will eventually have to cope with by powering down during the senescence of the infrastructure. This coping process can be fostered by widespread understanding of what these systems of civilization are irrevocably doing. ELAM (Earth's Lodgers Activity Management) movement can steer humanity by providing understanding of what has gone wrong and suggest remedial measures. This understanding will help humanity to rise to the challenge of steering future developments as much as is physically possible. It will require the population to accept greater responsibility for their usage decisions in exchange for having the rights to use up natural material resources. This cultural revolution can only come about by educating all into what technological systems are doing wrong rather than focusing on what they supply. The accent to date has been on the benefits of technological innovations without taking into account the irrevocable ecological costs. Improved understanding will encourage altruism and pride in contributing to a society making best possible use of the remaining natural resources.  

Author Bio

Denis Frith received Bachelor of Engineering and Master of Engineering Science degrees from the University of Tasmania. His career in aeronautical engineering research focused on fluid dynamics of turbomachinery and the performance of gas turbine engines while at the National Gas Turbine Establishment, England and Aeronautical Research Laboratories, Australia. He was scientific adviser to the RAAF on engines in the selection of a fighter replacement. He was Senior Principle Research Scientist and Head of Propulsion when he retired in 1990. Since then he has privately researched what the technological systems of industrialized civilization have done to the environment.

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Hi Denis,

You have outlined a lot of problems facing the future, lots to think about. I fear that in your scenario there might be confrontation between those founding a new society with new values along side an existing culture fighting for its own survival. It would be good to transform the existing culture perhaps by education, the arts, film, peer pressure, peaceful rallies and maybe parades to demonstrate public feelings. (Hopefully) eventually those not a part of the new movement will be in the minority and will realign themselves for their own comfort.

You do not paint an entirely optimistic view of the future but as you point out what people loose is compensated by what they gain, such as clean air. I agree with you conclusion "a smaller but wiser society can meet the challenge of living with nature." How small? I have struggled with that question. I do think that unless there is rapid adaptation nature might cull the population more than is necessary for sustainability. Sustainability is not so much a question of how many people there are, but how much impact their lifestyle has on the planet. Australians and Americans have a bigger footprint than most. Good luck, Georgina

Georgina

The hope is that the ELAM movement will exert sufficient moderation influence in the developed countries to appreciably reduce the rate of usage of natural resources and the rate of devastation of the environment. However, the residents of Melbourne (where I live) will have a major problem in coping with the inevitable loss of so many transportation and energy services.

I would not care to speculate on which factors will cause the die off. Many authorities have addressed the possible factors. However, there is the widespread view that Earth's capabilities cannot continue to support the current eight billion population, even if the well off moderate their use of natural resources.

Thanks for your comment

Denis

Denis,

You lay out a very clear-headed analysis of the situation to which I would like to offer one particular insight. As you point out, much of our direction as a culture and civilization is increasingly decided by the interests of capital, so the primary focus of concern would logically be the nature of this financial medium and how it came to be in control of humanity.

The popular version is that it developed out of barter, but there is a crucial initial step being overlooked. Originally this device of notational value was a contract. Such as tokens for grain in the community stocks, back in ancient Sumer, up to gold certificates issued by the Rothschilds in eighteenth century Europe. These then became traded around as commodities in their own right. The next step became futures, as in IOU something I don't yet have, such as next years grain, gold, etc., then all the other notational representations of value, from insurance to stock, etc.

What gets confused in this process is the underlaying nature of this notational value as a contract. A promise to be fulfilled. When it becomes treated in isolation as a commodity in its own right, this inherent connection to the social network becomes disconnected. What nationally issued money is, is a promise of value from the larger community. So logically, its value is fundamentally based on the health and strength of that community. Yet when we treat it as simply some form of commodity, we think the value is inherent to the possession of this device and so assume that more will always be better. Then you have this situation where pretty much everyone wants more of these notes and they are viewed as personal property, to the point where the underlaying economy turns from producing actual needs, to simply producing these notes.

My argument is that we have to go back to understanding this currency as a contract, not a commodity. If people understood they are simply promises from the community, then there would be much more value put into a strong community and healthy environment and not have it being drained out of these essential sources in order to store as notes in a bank. Not only would this serve to make society and the environment healthier, but would serve to stabilize the financial system as well.

Yes, there are a fair number of people who benefit from this system and are doing everything to maintain it, but their efforts seem destined to only make the eventual crash all that much greater. Then as new systems of exchange are being created, is when a broad based education effort needs to be made, to make people understand these are forms of public trust. They are like roads and other utilities. Even like air and water; Circulation systems which only function by being freely circulated, not hoarded and drained out of the larger system. If there was the common assumption they are simply contracts between a community and its members, there wouldn't be much sense of need beyond what was necessary, because one would assume some leeway in an emergency. On the other hand, if someone was caught hoarding them unnecessarily, the tendency of the community would be to discount or ignore the promises made to this member, since they obviously did not have the good or trust of the group in mind. We own our houses, car, businesses etc, but not the roads connecting them and no one calls this socialism, or communism. Fundamentally money is just such a system of circulation, like blood in the body. What if the heart, or the head, or the muscles insisted on holding onto blood, rather than having it flow freely through? Not good.

Regards,

John Merryman

    John Merryman

    The discussion of the impact of money on the operations of civilization deals with the decisions made by people. However, these decisions are affected to a large degree by the facilities available. A discussion that does not take that situation into account provides a biased view. Considerations this century are very influenced by electronic communication, housing and transport systems.All these technological systems are irreversibly made out of irreplaceable crustal materials and have a limited lifetime. This is an unsustainable process. The role of money will change significantly when that physical reality gradually hits society hard.

    Thanks for your comment

    Denis

      Denis,

      I suspect we will have a financial crisis first, as the various ponzi scheme type bubbles in the financial system start blowing up. My hope is this can be used as an opportunity for change before we really reach the end of our resource leash.

      Regards,

      John M

      DAF

      "Society has a delusion fostered by the powerful that continuing growth of the economy is possible. It conjures up the common belief that sufficient natural resources will continue to be available to enable this growth."

      I disagree. The continued growth of the population and humanity is a historical fact and not a delusion. That this can continue is not a delusion. First a few historical examples. The end of the 1700s saw a limit approaching of food availability for northern Europe. The global cold didn't help. Then came fertilizer. Saved the 1800's from starvation especially in the really cold period in the 18 teens. Fertilizer made the natural resources much more productive for us.

      New York City was facing a limit on the population that may be in the city by the end of the 1800s. The problem was the amount of horse manure would be so great. Then came the automobile.

      Examine the technology improvement suggestions in these essays. Let me suggest one. The availability of cheaper energy - certainly a long tend trend since fire. Note also the beginning of garbage repurposing becoming economical. Why not total garbage repurposing? The only thing we need is energy (fission, fusion, etc.). All the other resources can be repurposed. A suggestion to have computer programs downloaded to make 3D plastic parts and supplies for people. It can be done today. And, the plastic can be remelted and reformed. The problem is the cost is too high for home use. This changes when the cost of energy lowers. So sufficient resources will be available by digging up the old garbage piles. This is Gaia also.

        John M

        Another financial crisis could well occur in the near future. There is uncertainty as whether that intangible event will occur. But the tangible eco costly operation of the infrastructure of civilization continues virtually unabated as natural resources are irrevocably turned into wastes in operating and maintaining the infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers have produced a list of roads, bridges, tunnels, etc. in urgent need for repair. How much longer do you think the cities can continue to function as industry desperately attempts to supply the necessary energy and materials.

        That irreversible tangible process continued during the Great Depression as well as during the Global Financial Crisis. But it will gradually slow down as the availability of natural resources continues to decline. ELAM can contribute to easing the inevitable powering down for society.

        Regards

        Denis

        John

        You provide examples of what technology has down in supplying civilization with goods, services and infrastructure. But you do not mention the ecological cost of divestment of natural material resources. You do not take into account the irremediable ecological cost of operating and maintaining the existing infrastructure. You suggest repurposing (recycling) without taking into account that technology cannot recycle carbon dioxide so we have irreversible rapid climate change. You claim recycling can be done because energy is available. But what recycling is carried out uses a system made of materials as well as energy.

        Technology has never done more than use natural forces to transform natural resources into energy for use while producing waste material. Society continues to use the goods and services provided by technology and does not take into account the ecological cost. Coping with climate change is just one of the emerging problems. How do you think people will cope with the loss of land, sea and air transportation capabilities as the availability of fuel declines? The oil industry have shown how desperate they have become now that the giant fields are have dried up. Communities do not take kindly to the damage that fracking does to their ground water.

        Dear Mr. Frith,

        I thought that your essay was extremely well written and I hope that it does well in the competition.

        Regards,

        Joe Fisher

          Denis,

          I don't doubt what cannot continue indefinitely will not continue indefinitely. That's why I focus on one basic observation about how our system functions that is designed to extract value for effectively counterproductive ends, which could be reversed, so that people will feel more compelled to store value in their societies and the environment.

          Regards,

          John

          16 days later

          Hi Aaron

          I am a physical scientist. I found your article on the foreknowledge machine interesting for both what it included and what was left out. We do not need that machine to tell us that the crustal stock of oil is being depleted, that the ocean is becoming more acidic, that the infrastructure of New York is irreversibly aging, that this octogenarian will not see the end of the century. On the other hand, the machine cannot provide definite and correct knowledge of when bushfires will ravage here in Victoria, Australia or when the way in Syria will end or even which teams will win the AFL football matches this afternoon.

          You advocate a future-viewing machine. There are already in place many teams of specialists using machines (computers) to provide insight into what will happen in their fields. Many of these forecasts are fuzzy. But some are irrevocable.

          The ELAM movement can contribute to steering the future by making sound decisions about what is likely to happen in these fields, using the findings of the experts for guidance.

          Denis Frith

          John

          You focus on the decisions that people make. I focus on what is happening in physical operations as this is the foundation on which decisions by people have to be based.A financial crisis is possible now but developing physical crises such as climate change, shortage of fuels for land, sea and air transportation, decreasing availability of potable water, devastation of marine eco system due to acidification will increasingly demand attention. The ELAM movement can foster sound decisions about how to handle these crises. It can help to steer the future operation of the physical systems that society is so dependent on.

          Hi Denis,

          You raise a number of great points. There are certainly things that a FM could not feasibly provide viewer foreknowledge about. I think that if they are invented, they will have their place alongside the techniques we have been using all along. They will also open up new applications that prediction alone could not manage. Thank you for what you have added. Your article is now on my spreadsheet to read. Have a great weekend.

          Aaron

          Dear Denis,

          Extremely deep analytical essays in the spirit of Cartesian doubt, optimism and deep knowledge of the problems of modern Humanity. You have a concrete Program of action and it is important that you engineer. We must find the will for the Future of our children and grandchildren. We must remember that "Freedom is the recognition of necessity" (Hegel). Scientific picture of the world should be the same rich sense of the "LifeWorld" (Husserl), as the picture of the world of lyricists . We must every hour, every minute, every second to hear the Voice of the Earth. Call for earthlings: "We start the path ," Hope - our compass earth

          I invite you to my forum and my essay FQXi Essay 2012-2013.

          I wish you good luck!

          All the Best,

          Vladimir

            Dear Vladimir

            I have read and obtained insight from your essay on the development of philosophies over time. I will comment directly on it at the appropriate place. However, it also contains points relevant to my essay. You mention 'loss of certainty in mathematics and physics' and allude to deficiencies in science. I have prepared a list of deficiencies in the mode of operation of society and its technological infrastructure. One of the items on the list is the failure of science to warn of the irreversible damage that using fossil fuels to provided energy. So now society has to try and devise means of coping with climate change and ocean acidification together with other deleterious consequence. Another predicament is that society will have to cope with the decline in the availability of many natural resources, including oil. These problems are exacerbated by lack of understanding of how forms of friction are causing all the technological systems to age.

            Elam could provide guidance to society in coping with these and the multitude of other problems.

            Dear Denis,

            Thank you very much for your answer! You are doing very important, noble work for the benefit of future generations of spacecraft called "Earth." I wish success to ELAM and success to you in the contest and in research.

            Best regards,

            Vladimir

            Dear Vladimir

            Thanks for those comments. I have gained insight from your essay and the associated comments. Instilling that insight into the smart young could stimulate the growth of ELAM and the steering of humanity. It might even lead to easing the senescence of Tityas.

            Regards

            Denis

            6 days later

            Hi Petio H

            Whilst consideration of the physics of the universe would be an interesting activity, I prefer to concentrate on promoting understanding of the deleterious impact on operations of civilization here on Earth

            Your offer of involvement in the General Theory of Unity suggests that my ELAM essay showed understanding of physics.

            I thank you for the offer but will decline.

            Regards

            Denis Frith

            Hello Denis ~

            In my own essay - "How Should Humanity Steer the Future ?" by Margriet Anne O'Regan - I recommend 're-centralizing' women as the foundation on which to build our 'redemption'.

            This recommendation lends itself to this end, i believe & hope to show, due to the fact that 'the agendas' of men not only differ markedly from that of (un-spoiled) women but that 'quantity' rather than 'quality' is an integral & highly destructive component of the male agenda. This grab for 'quantity' is the impetus behind this lethal notion that continued growth is 'the way to go'.

            I say 'un-spoiled' women because the agenda of women un-spoiled by patriarchy always veers towards 'quality' rather than vast numbers of anything.

            I hope you read, like & rate my essay !!

            Thank you

            Margriet.