DAF

"Society has a delusion fostered by the powerful that continuing growth of the economy is possible. It conjures up the common belief that sufficient natural resources will continue to be available to enable this growth."

I disagree. The continued growth of the population and humanity is a historical fact and not a delusion. That this can continue is not a delusion. First a few historical examples. The end of the 1700s saw a limit approaching of food availability for northern Europe. The global cold didn't help. Then came fertilizer. Saved the 1800's from starvation especially in the really cold period in the 18 teens. Fertilizer made the natural resources much more productive for us.

New York City was facing a limit on the population that may be in the city by the end of the 1800s. The problem was the amount of horse manure would be so great. Then came the automobile.

Examine the technology improvement suggestions in these essays. Let me suggest one. The availability of cheaper energy - certainly a long tend trend since fire. Note also the beginning of garbage repurposing becoming economical. Why not total garbage repurposing? The only thing we need is energy (fission, fusion, etc.). All the other resources can be repurposed. A suggestion to have computer programs downloaded to make 3D plastic parts and supplies for people. It can be done today. And, the plastic can be remelted and reformed. The problem is the cost is too high for home use. This changes when the cost of energy lowers. So sufficient resources will be available by digging up the old garbage piles. This is Gaia also.

    John M

    Another financial crisis could well occur in the near future. There is uncertainty as whether that intangible event will occur. But the tangible eco costly operation of the infrastructure of civilization continues virtually unabated as natural resources are irrevocably turned into wastes in operating and maintaining the infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers have produced a list of roads, bridges, tunnels, etc. in urgent need for repair. How much longer do you think the cities can continue to function as industry desperately attempts to supply the necessary energy and materials.

    That irreversible tangible process continued during the Great Depression as well as during the Global Financial Crisis. But it will gradually slow down as the availability of natural resources continues to decline. ELAM can contribute to easing the inevitable powering down for society.

    Regards

    Denis

    John

    You provide examples of what technology has down in supplying civilization with goods, services and infrastructure. But you do not mention the ecological cost of divestment of natural material resources. You do not take into account the irremediable ecological cost of operating and maintaining the existing infrastructure. You suggest repurposing (recycling) without taking into account that technology cannot recycle carbon dioxide so we have irreversible rapid climate change. You claim recycling can be done because energy is available. But what recycling is carried out uses a system made of materials as well as energy.

    Technology has never done more than use natural forces to transform natural resources into energy for use while producing waste material. Society continues to use the goods and services provided by technology and does not take into account the ecological cost. Coping with climate change is just one of the emerging problems. How do you think people will cope with the loss of land, sea and air transportation capabilities as the availability of fuel declines? The oil industry have shown how desperate they have become now that the giant fields are have dried up. Communities do not take kindly to the damage that fracking does to their ground water.

    Dear Mr. Frith,

    I thought that your essay was extremely well written and I hope that it does well in the competition.

    Regards,

    Joe Fisher

      Denis,

      I don't doubt what cannot continue indefinitely will not continue indefinitely. That's why I focus on one basic observation about how our system functions that is designed to extract value for effectively counterproductive ends, which could be reversed, so that people will feel more compelled to store value in their societies and the environment.

      Regards,

      John

      16 days later

      Hi Aaron

      I am a physical scientist. I found your article on the foreknowledge machine interesting for both what it included and what was left out. We do not need that machine to tell us that the crustal stock of oil is being depleted, that the ocean is becoming more acidic, that the infrastructure of New York is irreversibly aging, that this octogenarian will not see the end of the century. On the other hand, the machine cannot provide definite and correct knowledge of when bushfires will ravage here in Victoria, Australia or when the way in Syria will end or even which teams will win the AFL football matches this afternoon.

      You advocate a future-viewing machine. There are already in place many teams of specialists using machines (computers) to provide insight into what will happen in their fields. Many of these forecasts are fuzzy. But some are irrevocable.

      The ELAM movement can contribute to steering the future by making sound decisions about what is likely to happen in these fields, using the findings of the experts for guidance.

      Denis Frith

      John

      You focus on the decisions that people make. I focus on what is happening in physical operations as this is the foundation on which decisions by people have to be based.A financial crisis is possible now but developing physical crises such as climate change, shortage of fuels for land, sea and air transportation, decreasing availability of potable water, devastation of marine eco system due to acidification will increasingly demand attention. The ELAM movement can foster sound decisions about how to handle these crises. It can help to steer the future operation of the physical systems that society is so dependent on.

      Hi Denis,

      You raise a number of great points. There are certainly things that a FM could not feasibly provide viewer foreknowledge about. I think that if they are invented, they will have their place alongside the techniques we have been using all along. They will also open up new applications that prediction alone could not manage. Thank you for what you have added. Your article is now on my spreadsheet to read. Have a great weekend.

      Aaron

      Dear Denis,

      Extremely deep analytical essays in the spirit of Cartesian doubt, optimism and deep knowledge of the problems of modern Humanity. You have a concrete Program of action and it is important that you engineer. We must find the will for the Future of our children and grandchildren. We must remember that "Freedom is the recognition of necessity" (Hegel). Scientific picture of the world should be the same rich sense of the "LifeWorld" (Husserl), as the picture of the world of lyricists . We must every hour, every minute, every second to hear the Voice of the Earth. Call for earthlings: "We start the path ," Hope - our compass earth

      I invite you to my forum and my essay FQXi Essay 2012-2013.

      I wish you good luck!

      All the Best,

      Vladimir

        Dear Vladimir

        I have read and obtained insight from your essay on the development of philosophies over time. I will comment directly on it at the appropriate place. However, it also contains points relevant to my essay. You mention 'loss of certainty in mathematics and physics' and allude to deficiencies in science. I have prepared a list of deficiencies in the mode of operation of society and its technological infrastructure. One of the items on the list is the failure of science to warn of the irreversible damage that using fossil fuels to provided energy. So now society has to try and devise means of coping with climate change and ocean acidification together with other deleterious consequence. Another predicament is that society will have to cope with the decline in the availability of many natural resources, including oil. These problems are exacerbated by lack of understanding of how forms of friction are causing all the technological systems to age.

        Elam could provide guidance to society in coping with these and the multitude of other problems.

        Dear Denis,

        Thank you very much for your answer! You are doing very important, noble work for the benefit of future generations of spacecraft called "Earth." I wish success to ELAM and success to you in the contest and in research.

        Best regards,

        Vladimir

        Dear Vladimir

        Thanks for those comments. I have gained insight from your essay and the associated comments. Instilling that insight into the smart young could stimulate the growth of ELAM and the steering of humanity. It might even lead to easing the senescence of Tityas.

        Regards

        Denis

        6 days later

        Hi Petio H

        Whilst consideration of the physics of the universe would be an interesting activity, I prefer to concentrate on promoting understanding of the deleterious impact on operations of civilization here on Earth

        Your offer of involvement in the General Theory of Unity suggests that my ELAM essay showed understanding of physics.

        I thank you for the offer but will decline.

        Regards

        Denis Frith

        Hello Denis ~

        In my own essay - "How Should Humanity Steer the Future ?" by Margriet Anne O'Regan - I recommend 're-centralizing' women as the foundation on which to build our 'redemption'.

        This recommendation lends itself to this end, i believe & hope to show, due to the fact that 'the agendas' of men not only differ markedly from that of (un-spoiled) women but that 'quantity' rather than 'quality' is an integral & highly destructive component of the male agenda. This grab for 'quantity' is the impetus behind this lethal notion that continued growth is 'the way to go'.

        I say 'un-spoiled' women because the agenda of women un-spoiled by patriarchy always veers towards 'quality' rather than vast numbers of anything.

        I hope you read, like & rate my essay !!

        Thank you

        Margriet.

        Margriet

        My essay calls for ELAM (Earth's Lodgers' Activity Movement) to lead the way in humanity steering the future operation of civilization. I would hope that female member of the movement would provide balance of the type you mention. I will certainly rate your essay as it would contribute to that balance.

        Regards

        Denis

        11 days later

        Denis,

        I'm glad the delay let me get to your essay before scoring closed. I agree entirely with your analysis and you described the argument well. What I've been thinking deeply about in recent years is implementation. Do you think that just; "A Cultural Revolution fostered by the ELAM movement" will happen, or counter the economic forces that drive our actions? And even if we do, what do we actually 'switch' to?

        I champion renewable energy resources and was recently Architect for the larges UK wind farm (Thames estuary) but in terms of environmental 'costs in use' even that is small meat. It takes massive energy to construct, more to maintain, lifetime is limited, and it takes more energy to remove. Photovoltaic science is improving but only gradually.

        I determined we need a quantum leap in understanding nature. We can then bring in technology that doesn't ravish the planet. I suggest that's treating the fundamental cause rather than the symptoms. Don't you get the feeling that many essays here consider peripherals, symptoms or semantics. Almost none get at the nub, which is about fundamental physics', which is 'nature'.

        Of course the problem is poor vision. My own essay may hit the very crux of our confusion about nature, allowing unification, which will lead to far better use of solar and other renewables. But Scientists are so embedded with old thinking the can't even SEE it! (non scientist's of curse don't see it either. So I'm now a little distraught. Even with good answers available our short sightedness abides.

        Sorry to rant a bit but I think you'll understand my frustration. You epitomize it in part with;"people are misusing their free will because of lack of understanding of the long term consequences" Admittedly a few others also have seen the value, but not enough to count. Your essay paints the picture well. Full marks for that, and I hope you keep up the good work. Mine is allegorical, showing how better thinking finds a real and comprehendable solution to the wierd nonsense of the last 100 years (see the short analysis in my last few blog posts).

        Best of luck getting in the final group

        Peter

          Hi Denis,

          Your essay made a very important point. "The accent to date has been on the benefits of technological innovations without taking into account the irrevocable ecological costs."

          Without taking away from that true conclusion there are hints of change in technologies like Wikipedia.

          "Improved understanding will encourage altruism and pride in contributing to a society making best possible use of the remaining natural resources." That is your sentence and I like it.

          Don Limuti

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            • Post #24

            John

            You highlight some of the deficiencies in the financial system and propose measures to counter these deficiencies. However, the current financial system does not take into account the divestment of natural material wealth. Society is not paying for the usage of oil and numerous other material resources. Society is not paying fully for the vast amount of material waste produced by the operation of technological systems. Adapting to the impact of climate change is only one of the deleterious impacts of technology that society is having to deal with now and in the future. Society is not yet paying fully for the devastation of biodiversity and species extinctions but these are items that will have to be included in future budgets. Ironically, society has used technology to construct the infrastructure (cities, roads, bridges, airports, etc.)that provides the services that society has become so dependent on. But this infrastructure is irrevocably aging. Organizing financial operations to pay for the operation and maintenance of this infrastructure will become harder as the availability of the necessary energy and materials declines.

            How will even an improved financial system cope with the inevitable problem of coping with stark reality. That is one of the challenges for ELAM that I envision in my essay.

            Regards

            Denis

            Peter

            I believe a cultural revolution is bound to occur as stark reality hits elements of society hard. Technological systems supplying energy is an unsustainable process even when the source of the energy is solar or wind. The systems are made of materials and they irrevocably age. And energy supply is only one of the predicaments that humanity will have to cope with. I believe the young will lead the way in this revolution. Hopefully ELAM will ease the powering down. In the past, the young expected to learn from their elders. The age when society obtained a free lunch at the expense of the environment is over. The young should now combine in ELAM to meet the challenge of powering down - not paying too much for what their elders enjoyed.

            All the best with your essay.

            Denis

            Don

            You raise an interesting point. All technological systems are made, operate and are maintained by irreversibly using some of the remaining natural material resources during their limited lifetime. The question facing society is what technology will be the most useful in steering the future well being of society while coping with the demise of much of the infrastructure. That is one of the issues to be addressed by ELAM in coping with the challenge of powering down.

            I do not expect that the improved communication within society due to electronic devices will help the populace of Melbourne (where I live) cope with the inevitable deterioration of infrastructure such as electricity, food and water supply, sewerage systems, transportation and education and health services.

            Thanks for your comment

            Denis