A Rope over an Abyss by Laurence Hitterdale

Well said.

30 years ago ecologists and environmentalists were warning about global warming. I had ecology lectures at that time and read the Gaia atlas of planet management by Norman Myers (1984). We were told that by the time there was the proof needed to show it beyond doubt it would be too late. It was frightening and I did my bit to tell friends and family. Do I think it made the slightest difference? No. When my kids were quite small I bought Al Gore's book and video for my family. We watched it, worried about it, bought a copy for our relatives to share and then life went on.

Nowadays I am more cynical, or less naive. I think perhaps to overcome inertia requires lives to be personally impacted by the changes, being flooded out, having land undergoing unusual drought, having a home destroyed by unusually prevalent tornadoes, seeing friends or neighbours undergoing those kinds of tragedies or seeing them benefiting from the "green" lifestyle choices they have made.

How to start a movement Looks easy, good luck to you.

That Anonymous was me.

Dear Laurence Hitterdale,

Thanks for a sober appreciation of the problem. I think the Singulartarians and other technology cultist's are simply exhibiting their complete misunderstanding of what consciousness is. They think it's an artifact that emerges from Lego blocks, so more and faster Lego blocks are all we need. Don't hold your breath.

And as you point out, no amount of life extension will amount to immortality, i.e., deathlessness. I tend to think that "it is implausible to suppose that the natural limits on technology are much tighter than they seem to be." But steady progress in technology will not yield transhumans, only greater efficiencies in most areas and, hopefully a few new lasers or MRIs -- even a new Internet. But technology won't make us gods. So I fully agree with your second strategic principle that we can rely only on human character and motivations as we now find them.

Finally I agree that you can't steer from outside, but only by steering yourself in the best direction you can conceive.

"Grand solutions, whatever they may be for others, remain only fantasies for me."

That is compatible with my essay, which I hope you will read and comment on.

Good to see you here again,

Edwin Eugene Klingman

P.S., I will use the following rating scale to rate the essays of authors who tell me that they have rated my essay:

10 - the essay is perfection and I learned a tremendous amount

9 - the essay was extremely good, and I learned a lot

8 - the essay was very good, and I learned something

7 - the essay was good, and it had some helpful suggestions

6 - slightly favorable indifference

5 - unfavorable indifference

4 - the essay was pretty shoddy and boring

3 - the essay was of poor quality and boring

2 - the essay was of very poor quality and boring

1 - the essay was of shockingly poor quality and extremely flawed

After all, that is essentially what the numbers mean.

The following is a general observation:

Is it not ironic that so many authors who have written about how we should improve our future as a species, to a certain extent, appear to be motivated by self-interest in their rating practices? (As evidence, I offer the observation that no article under 3 deserves such a rating, and nearly every article above 4 deserves a higher rating.)

Laurence Hitterdale,

I appreciated this entry very much. It was well written and definitely fit the subject matter of this contest. Your current rating is the same as mine, but, I think yours rates higher. Thank you for submitting it. Good luck in the contest.

James Putnam

Hi Laurence,

Nice work! I enjoyed your essay, and I think your priorities are in the right place.

I wanted to comment to point out another suggestion that could fit into your email message at the end. It seems to me that an important aspect of public life, beyond making concrete suggestions like setting market prices for energy and encouraging efficiency, is in fully explaining the reasons and values that lead you to do those things, and bringing them into the public and political conversation.

For example, finding a way for our responsibilities to future generations to be built into our legal structure might be helpful, or establishing publicly funded organizations to tackle the kinds of long-term issues that you outline in your essay.

Overall, very nice; I look forward to your thoughts.

Best,

Daniel

Crucial Phenomena

Lawrence Hitterdale,

The man who created socialism dealt with capital because he didn't get a professor post. He is known for his manifesto: The philosophers did only describe the world differently; let's change it instead.

While your essay doesn't focus just on peace as does mine, we nearly agree on how such steering works. I see discoveries, inventions, and what Nobel called ideal direction rather than political decisions the primary and ultimately decisive contributions toward coping with the potential of humanity.

Your metaphor of the rope over an abyss did not completely satisfy me because it lets me ask for the safe point where the rope ends. You will certainly take the same perspective as did Popper and do I; the future is open. Otherwise it couldn't be steered. Are you aware that this view contradicts to the tenets of modern physics?

Isn't the name fqxi an obligation to deal with truly basic questions? Kadin's perspectives of humanity is different from those of individuals or groups.

Facing hostility by time-traveling physicists, I am also blunt enough as to identify a basic reason for what you called the abyss; Ethics and human rights require to be slightly adapted. Do you agree?

Eckard

Sorry, Lawrence should read Laurence.

Lawrence,

"I would stand up and do what I can" is a thought I cannot agree with more. I admire the thoughtful way you reached it. Hope you will allow me to use your logic with others.

I reached the same position a few years ago. When a good friend introduced me to FQXi just 2 days before the 2014 competition deadline with the plea for me to enter this competition, I jumped at the chance.

My essay (here) takes this thought a long way forward. I can only do a bit alone. Can I empower others to amplify the doing? My answer is 'yes, I can, by putting science in the hands of more and more people as just another tool, recognizing the value of which, more do, hopefully, say "I will stand up and do what I can".

Looking forward to your comments on my essay.

- Ajay

You make a convincing case that this is a pivotal time, Laurence. You put it well when you say "it will be the best of times--unless it is the worst of times".

I think we need something to shock us from our everyday way of doing things, so I particularly liked the message you imagine sending yourself. My own view is that working toward changing public policy--and changing the incentives we face as individuals--is probably the most important thing we can do.

If you get a chance, I would love it if you took a look at my own essay, which touches on similar themes. Good luck in any case in the contest!

Best,

Robert de Neufville

Laurence,

The time grows short, so I'm revisiting and rating. Common good motivation, and looking beyond our solar system and stagnant ideas and looking within, using imagination and capacity like Einstein is my solution

Have 'you had a chance to see my essay?

Jim

Author Laurence Hitterdale,

I didn't say much because I thought it was complete with nothing to justifiably criticize. I liked it. Our choices for subjects is very different. I would like others to listen to me, but, I think it is essential that contestants read what the professionals think. At the time I judged that your essay needed to be higher to gain visibility. I pushed you up. You stayed up because your essay is appreciated. I have done it for several others. This is my sixth contest. The way the contest ratings actually function is less than ideal to the point where I think it becomes obvious that corrective action is sometimes necessary for the good of the contest. You earned a PHD in philosophy. You should be heard. I appreciate that you visited my website and have considered my viewpoints. I thank you for the time and effort. I expect my essay to be judged from the reader's point of view. Whatever you think is right, high or low, is accepted and appreciated. I won't know the vote anyway unless told. Good luck.

James Putnam

Dear Laurence,

I enjoyed reading your excellent essay. I share similar view that we are in a turning point: survival or extinction.

You wrote: "First, avoidance of a negative outcome must take priority over the production of a positive outcome."

I agree with this statement. If I may say I propose both "avoidance of a negative outcome" and "the production of a positive outcome". Please read my essay "Chinese Dream is Xuan Yuan's Da Tong".

I rated this essay the highest score 10.

Best of luck,

Leo KoGuan

Laurence,

Yours was one of the first essays I read, but I didn't take the time back them to comment on it.

I really appreciated your arguments, in particular the statement near the end of your essay that "we [cannot] solve the problem of climate change without also making progress on many other natural and social problems that humanity faces [...] a global effort focused on one serious problem (i.e., climate change) will put in place both institutional structures and habits of mind that will be required for many other tasks in the coming decades."

I am glad your essay has been well received. I believe it belongs in the finals, and I have rated it accordingly. Good luck!

Marc

Laurence,

your essay reveals a precise, analytical mind, and an ability to organise into a logical structure a topic that does not easily lend itself to such a treatment.

I appreciated the psychological annotation about our inclination to consider ourselves as special, and our present times as a crucial passage in history. But exactly because of the illusory nature of these opinions, I disagree with the picture that is given of the post-singularity.

What I mean is that the only fact we cannot deny is the acceleration of technological progress, and of the other usual parameters related to population growth, pollution, etc.

But the expectation that, after possibly surviving the next `change of phase` (or the Singularity) in the most desirable way, and after entering a new phase of prosperity, the future will stabilise into such positive, steady-state scenario, would be totally unjustified. I believe it is perfectly natural to expect that changes of phase will keep occurring, periodically, in the future, as they did in the past. New singularities might, for example, correlate with space colonisation steps, on various cosmic scales, or with alien life encounters.

I am not exactly sure about your position on this this multi-singularity conjecture (but `change of phase` is perhaps a better term for what I mean), since you do not seem to mention it explicitly. I am curious about your opinion, especially in case you disagree with it :-]

Best regards

Tommaso

Dear Laurence,

Thank you for your close reading of my essay and your comments and questions.

I agree with your answer to your first question about freedom and social stability: the goal is to achieve social stability while doing the best we can to achieve as much freedom for individuals as possible. You have correctly interpreted the "cost function" statement.

The second question is harder to answer. You indicate that those who successfully market their ideas may succeed in promoting their own inferior ideas above better, less well marketed (or less well-funded) ideas. You identify this as a problem associated with economic freedom, but I find exactly the same problem occurring in academia, where "wealth" is more a matter of "prestige" (and the accompanying funding), but ideas are still marketed unequally.

In general I do not see a solution of this that does not involve gatekeeping by a "master" class, controlling the expression of the beta class. It's a tough problem.

Thanks for participating. I always enjoy our discussions.

Best regards,

Edwin Eugene Klingman

Dear Laurence,

A very useful and nice essay, with food for thought. I agree with your proposal of preventing disasters as an important step in the steering. More broadly, I have been thinking that many of the essays in this forum, when put together, provide a significant and comprehensive steering strategy, if only those who matter will pay heed to these ideas.

Best regards,

Tejinder