Dear Christian,
thank you so much for reading my essay and commenting.
1, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Prof. Al Bartlett; comes from the beginning of his talk "Arithmetic, Population and Energy." In the references at the end of my essay there is a hyperlink to a transcript of his talk. Here is a link to the full transcript of the talkTranscript of Arithmetic, population and energy Or if you prefer on this linked page you will find links to video of his talk as 8 installments or as 1 hour streaming video.Video links, Arithmetic, Population and Energy, by A. Bartlett It is well worth a look. I have watched it all the way through a number of times because it is so good.
"Dr. Bartlett gave his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy 1,742 times."from www.albartlett.org/presentations It is about the exponential function which applies to any kind of growth, increasing use of resources, particularly fossil fuels, as well as population growth.
He also says, Quote:"We must educate people to recognise the fact that growth of populations and growth of rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained. What's the first law of sustainability? You've heard thousands of people talking endlessly about sustainability; did they ever tell you the first law? Here it is: population growth and /or growth in the rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained. That's simple arithmetic. Yet nobody that I'm encountering will tell you about that when they're talking about sustainability. So I think it's intellectually dishonest to talk about saving the environment, which is sustainability, without stressing the obvious fact that stopping population growth is a necessary condition for saving the environment and for sustainability."
2. The lesson of the bacteria in a jar 'brings home' the idea of how very quickly resources are used up when there is exponential growth. Much, much quicker than with a linear relationship. So it's no good looking at what's left and comparing it to what has been used already and thinking that's plenty, because with the next doubling of consumption as much again as the total already used will be used up. Prof. Bartlett explains it better than I can in a short reply.
3.Yes a good comparison.It is overcoming difficulties that gives the experience to deal effectively with future problems.
4.Yes I think Dr. Allan Savory is doing very good work. I also like that he admits to the mistake of recommending the cull of herds of elephants and has taken a "U turn" against the incorrect received wisdom of overgrazing.
5.Thank you.
6.Yes also in the references at the end of the essay is a link to a talk given by Timothy Palmer: Predicting climate in a chaotic world, how certain can we be?MIT Lorenz Center John Carlson Lecture. You tube:Timothy Palmer: Predicting climate in a chaotic world, how certain can we be? He explains the need to crudely sum together the smallest inputs to the climate and weather forecasts because even with the biggest super computers there is not the computing power to deal with the level of accuracy of inputs required for really accurate forecasts. Because of the importance of weather prediction, he illustrates this by talking about knowing if we would be dealing with a hurricane Sandy or a Katrina event he asks for more funding for that kind of research as even more computing power is what is needed.
7.I was trying to portray a truly sustainable community, implying that they do not use non renewable resources and produce toxic waste. So a fission reactor is out of the question. That would involve mining and transport of raw materials (which may be even more problematic than now with climate disruption) and storage of waste. If safe fusion reactors can be built in the future and deuterium and tritium can be obtained in a sustainable way then that is a possibility. What energy sources are used may depend upon the location of the sanctuary. Central Australia would have no trouble getting enough solar energy, Iceland and New Zealand may have enough geothermal and wind energy. Another important source could be micro-generation, for example just walking over the floors or using exercize machines could generate additional energy.
Thank you for your good wishes. Georgina
