Hi. Interesting essay. Here are some thoughts about it:
You pointed out that when we need to approach or make predictions about processes from the world (subsystems of our universe), solutions ("models") can be developed not only in the form of mathematical theories but also as other processes from the world that somehow "behave the same". My opinion is that almost all processes in the world are so relatively complex and depending on many parameters (both physical constants and initial states of systems), that it would be extremely unlikely to discover 2 processes that behave the same (give the same result), except for a few very simple phenomena, or if they are made of the exact same stuff, or if one of them has been precisely well-designed for the purpose of matching the other. And I think only 2 kinds of systems (that you mentioned) are generally able to receive that needed amount of design for this purpose: well-programmed computers, and intelligent minds understanding a subject.
I mean, I don't believe in large usefulness for the other kind of "model" that you mentioned with the example of Analogue Gravity : they might provide vague similarities for specific processes but no full similarity, and cannot approach any accuracy I guess (sorry I did not check the article you gave as reference). For example, space-time outside the horizon of a black hole remains perfectly time-symmetric (if not distorted by a falling big mass); the time asymmetry only concerns what crosses the horizon. The acoustic model with a moving fluid does not show this fact, or at least does not make it intuitive. It can suggest some aspects but cannot be accurate because, well, moving fluids remain in a Galilean space-time and just cannot have a faithful correspondence with the curved space-time of General Relativity. Generally, digital computers can reproduce quite well any results that analogue models could provide (as any kind of analogue physical process can be described by known laws of physics, thus analyzed by these laws with methods of numerical analysis, except for quantum phenomena where classical computation would be inefficient, in which case making a quantum model, either "different stuff" quantum analog or by quantum computation, would be a hard problem anyway), with the advantage that they can be programmed to apply the exactly right law, while analog processes being subject to the specific laws ruling the stuff they are made of, are unlikely to behave the same as what we want.
Strictly speaking, computer simulations are mathematical stuff, even if they can look quite different from what is usually presented as "mathematics" at school. However, computer solutions can be considered largely non-mathematical when they heavily depend on the input of big data, which has a non-mathematical origin (see Jaron Lanier's talk on the myth of AI describing the situation of automatic translation systems).
Intelligent minds can also have both mathematical and non-mathematical abilities, that can be developed depending on needs. The advantage of mathematical abilities being their capacity of perfection to match a given rule, in case it would happen to be the right one; but I consider that only a mind can understand another mind, which is an ability beyond maths.
Now about your attempt at classifying views with sentences such as "Observations can be math", "Observations are described by math but are not math". I don't think such sentences make much sense. You don't seem to take them very seriously in the rest of your essay, but why did you develop them in the first place ? In particular, I doubt anyone would claim an observation "is math". An observation may be said to be "described by math" if some mathematical structures can be found there, in the sense that the observation is shown to not be entirely random. However I do not see it as a binary question "can be described or cannot be described by math", but rather a roughly continuous, quantitative question "how much can it be mathematically explained" in the sense of "compressed by some algorithm". So it is another sort of mathematical way of describing how mathematical something is, but it takes more subtle mathematical concepts than such basic set theory concepts as you did. See more explanations in my essay.