Dear Matt,
I had read your essay while the contest was underway but never got to comment on it. Better late than never!
In my essay, I side with Tegmark's view that can summarized as "Physics is Math", so I was naturally intrigued by your claim that the opposite is the case. After reading your essay, I think it all comes down to the different way we define mathematics. In your essay, you write:
" [F]or me, abstract mathematical objects can be called real insofar as they are useful for our scientific reasoning"
and
"[M]athematical theories are just abstract formal systems, but not all formal systems are mathematics. Instead, mathematical theories are those formal systems that maintain a tether to empirical reality through a process of abstraction and generalization from more empirically grounded theories, aimed at achieving a pragmatically useful representation of regularities that exist in nature."
If I read you correctly, you essentially define mathematics so that,
(1) if it not ultimately derived from the generalization of physics, it is not math ;
(2) if it not even remotely useful for reasoning about physics, it is not math.
If mathematics is defined in this way, I fully agree with you that mathematics is (a subset of) physics.
On the other hand, if we define Mathematics in a wider sense that encompasses all abstract formal systems, including those that are too big, too complex or too irregular to be grasped and studied by human-level minds, I think it is quite possible that "All-of-Physics" (in the sense of all possible physical realities, observable or not), is "generated" by "All-of-Math". With this larger definition, it is Physics that is (a subset of) Mathematics!
That said, I really like the way you explained how abstract mathematical theories can arise:
"The main idea is that when a sufficiently large number of strong analogies are discovered between existing nodes in the knowledge network, it makes sense to develop a formal theory of their common structure, and replace the direct connections with a new hub, which encodes the same knowledge more efficiently. [...] In this way, mathematics can become increasingly abstract, and develop its own independent structure, whilst maintaining a tether to the empirical world."
This essay contest cast a very wide net by asking about the relationship between math and physics, and it is fascinating to see the diversity of answers that were proposed. Thank you for contributing a very interesting essay, and all the best!
Marc