Hi Lorraine,

I think you have missed the point partly. I am simply proposing a set of axioms and seeing what can be accomplished via those axioms. They may not be the correct axioms. But you have to start somewhere. And my definition of determinism is the same as the one used by D'Ariano. I agree prediction is not necessary here. Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part since it does not necessarily require an agent, but the basic idea is that there are multiple possible outcomes, none of which is oreferentially more likely to occur than any other.

Ian

Thank you Wilhelmus! You make a very important point. Time and space must necessarily be emergent from any such fundamental system. I think most physicists would probably agree with that, though exactly how it does remains a bit of a mystery. It's something I've been grappling with for some time now.

Dear Ian Durham,

Please excuse me for I have no intention of disparaging in any way any part of your essay.

I merely wish to point out that "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955) Physicist & Nobel Laureate.

Only nature could produce a reality so simple, a single cell amoeba could deal with it.

The real Universe must consist only of one unified visible infinite physical surface occurring in one infinite dimension, that am always illuminated by infinite non-surface light.

A more detailed explanation of natural reality can be found in my essay, SCORE ONE FOR SIMPLICITY. I do hope that you will read my essay and perhaps comment on its merit.

Joe Fisher, Realist

Dear Chairman,

Ritz was certainly wrong in his dispute with Einstein 1907, when he took the position of Newton's emission theory while I guess he was correct in that the past is different from the future. In this case if I recall correctly, Einstein preferred probabilistics and the belonging in principle pre-determined block universe.

I didn't find the Einstein-Ritz dispute mentioned in your essay. Maybe it wasn't as important as I thought. Hopefully, you can nonetheless enlighten me.

Curious,

Eckard

Nice essay Durham,

Your ideas and thinking are excellent for eg...

1. What role does chance play in the universe? Quantum theory suggests that randomness is a fundamental part of how the universe works and yet we live mostly intentional, ordered lives.

2. For a two-outcome process whose outcomes have a 51% and 49% likelihood of occurrence respectively, one might be tempted to refer to it as `nearly random.' On the other hand, if those same likelihoods were 99% and 1% respectively, one might be tempted to say the process was `nearly deterministic.' But what if they were 80% and 20% or 60% and 40%? At what point do we stop referring to a process as nearly deterministic' or `nearly random'?

3. In fact both Eddington and Compton argued that the randomness of quantum mechanics was a necessary condition for free will [3, 5]. On the other hand, Lloyd has argued that even deterministic systems can't predict the results of their decision-making process ahead of time [8]

...... Universe is working in deterministic way..................... At this point I want you to ask you to please have a look at my essay, where ...............reproduction of Galaxies in the Universe is described. Dynamic Universe Model is another mathematical model for Universe. Its mathematics show that the movement of masses will be having a purpose or goal, Different Galaxies will be born and die (quench) etc...just have a look at my essay... "Distances, Locations, Ages and Reproduction of Galaxies in our Dynamic Universe" where UGF (Universal Gravitational force) acting on each and every mass, will create a direction and purpose of movement.....

I think intension is inherited from Universe itself to all Biological systems

For your information Dynamic Universe model is totally based on experimental results. Here in Dynamic Universe Model Space is Space and time is time in cosmology level or in any level. In the classical general relativity, space and time are convertible in to each other.

Many papers and books on Dynamic Universe Model were published by the author on unsolved problems of present day Physics, for example 'Absolute Rest frame of reference is not necessary' (1994) , 'Multiple bending of light ray can create many images for one Galaxy: in our dynamic universe', About "SITA" simulations, 'Missing mass in Galaxy is NOT required', "New mathematics tensors without Differential and Integral equations", "Information, Reality and Relics of Cosmic Microwave Background", "Dynamic Universe Model explains the Discrepancies of Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry Observations.", in 2015 'Explaining Formation of Astronomical Jets Using Dynamic Universe Model, 'Explaining Pioneer anomaly', 'Explaining Near luminal velocities in Astronomical jets', 'Observation of super luminal neutrinos', 'Process of quenching in Galaxies due to formation of hole at the center of Galaxy, as its central densemass dries up', "Dynamic Universe Model Predicts the Trajectory of New Horizons Satellite Going to Pluto" etc., are some more papers from the Dynamic Universe model. Four Books also were published. Book1 shows Dynamic Universe Model is singularity free and body to collision free, Book 2, and Book 3 are explanation of equations of Dynamic Universe model. Book 4 deals about prediction and finding of Blue shifted Galaxies in the universe.

With axioms like... No Isotropy; No Homogeneity; No Space-time continuum; Non-uniform density of matter(Universe is lumpy); No singularities; No collisions between bodies; No Blackholes; No warm holes; No Bigbang; No repulsion between distant Galaxies; Non-empty Universe; No imaginary or negative time axis; No imaginary X, Y, Z axes; No differential and Integral Equations mathematically; No General Relativity and Model does not reduce to General Relativity on any condition; No Creation of matter like Bigbang or steady-state models; No many mini Bigbangs; No Missing Mass; No Dark matter; No Dark energy; No Bigbang generated CMB detected; No Multi-verses etc.

Many predictions of Dynamic Universe Model came true, like Blue shifted Galaxies and no dark matter. Dynamic Universe Model gave many results otherwise difficult to explain

Have a look at my essay on Dynamic Universe Model and its blog also where all my books and papers are available for free downloading...

http://vaksdynamicuniversemodel.blogspot.in/

Best wishes to your essay.

For your blessings please................

=snp. gupta

Dear Ian,

This was very thought-provoking! I spent quite some time after reading your essay thinking about whether it is possible to construct a causal macro system from purely random micro elements, i.e. a macro system in which the state of one macro element can causally influence other macro elements, while the micro elements are completely random.

As you said, for a set of dice, that would not be possible, since no matter how you group the dice, the state of one macro element is independent of the state of the other macro elements.

For the case where energy travels around, it seems different, since there is a conserved quantity. However, if this energy traveling is truly random at the micro level, i.e. every micro state is equally possible following every possible micro state, then again the macro states would be independent of each other.

Do you agree or did I miss something?

Best regards,

Larissa

Hi Larissa,

Thanks for the comments! I think I agree. So you can get a nearly deterministic outcome from underlying randomness, but a string of such outcomes might not be deterministic because the macrostates are not correlated. Is that kind of what you're saying?

By the way, I read your essay a couple of days ago and loved it. It takes me awhile to digest everything and I've been at a conference all week so I didn't post anything, but I did rate it. I actually wanted to talk to you about it (which I'll do via e-mail) because it relates to some of the things I've been thinking about lately.

Cheers,

Ian

    Hi Ian,

    Yes, the random string is a good way to express what I mean. Great! I'm waiting to here from you then.

    Cheers,

    Larissa

    Dear Ian,

    that was nice and clear! You do a great job explaining the thermodynamic limit. While reading your essay I noticed that the outlines of our essays are spookily similar :D although we start from different microscopic theories and cover different topics in the middle sections. You explain emergence of determinism from random processes and then move on to free will. I explain emergence of irreversibility from reversible dynamics and then move on to goal-oriented behavior. For the first step we both have to introduce the concept of microstates and macrostates.

    That was fun to read, cheers, Stefan

      Thanks Stefan! I will have to read your essay!

      Dear Prof. Durham,

      Your very interesting essay talks about random fluctuations leading toward order, structure, and even intentionality.

      I agree, but I think the missing link is the biological concept of evolutionary adaption. In evolution, random fluctuations provide the raw material, but they are filtered by the environment to select out structures that survive. Even consciousness may be an adaptive structure.

      I address the issue of adaptation in my own essay, "No Ghost in the Machine". I argue that recognition of self, other agents, and a causal narrative are built into specific evolved brain structures, based on neural networks, which create a sense of consciousness as part of a dynamic model of the environment. The reason that this is such a difficult problem is that we are being misled by the subjective perceptions of our own minds.

      Alan Kadin

      Hi Ian,

      I would dispute what you say about free will:

      I was a bit surprised at the non-sequitur: "It's clear that the emergence of determinism and free will in this model is not solely due to the combinatorics alone.", because there was no previous justification for the proposition that free will had "emerged", and no suggestion about what it might have emerged from, if anything. On the contrary, the ability to freely choose broccoli rather than carrots was earlier seemingly assumed as a given: "if I choose to have carrots", "Free will thus generally involve choices about macroprocesses...".

      But I wouldn't have said that "...the essence of free will is that...if I choose to have carrots I can have confidence that ...the carrots won't randomly and inexplicably turn into a potato...": the online Oxford dictionary defines free will as "The power of acting without the constraint of necessity or fate". The definition is all about the power to freely move oneself with respect to the rest of reality, not about whether carrots might unexpectedly turn into potatoes, causing a loss of confidence.

      Clearly choosing carrots, that then have to be retrieved from the fridge, is more like choosing a goal to work towards: it is a multi-step process, not an instantaneous outcome, but also not what you suggest i.e. a single macroprocess arising from a multiplicity of random microprocesses.

      Lorraine

      Ian,

      Great. 'We learn then we die!' I wonder if you might be similarly incisive (and more critical if you like) with my essay. I've come to what looks like a very important geometrical derivation and can't disprove it, so need help.

      Very best

      Peter

      7 days later

      Hello Ian,

      Thank you for such an enjoyable and interesting read. From the outset, you argue it is 'processes' that make the universe interesting - which maps quite nicely in agreement with what I argue with my coauthor in our essay that fundamental interactions/forces engender the rich structures in the universe. Indeed as you develop micro vs macro processes I agree is a good way to think about natural phenomena. This is in harmony with how we argued renormlisation essentially generates a hierarchy of processes of largely independent effective theories at different scales.

      In my daily particle physics work, I remain astonished how well simulations based on quantum amplitudes predict collider data. These probabilities are pre-determinined (though non-trivial to calculate!), and indeed from your combinatoric/statistical mechanics perspective, can give rise to seemingly goal-directed macrostates. My electron seems to always recede from the collision point, never returning to it. Reading your essay where you discuss issues of randomness and determinism in wonderful detail and clarity, it got me thinking again about how even mathematically deterministic theories can lead to experimentally unpredictable phenomena notably chaotic dynamics. I wonder how this can be distinguished from the seeming randomness of quantum theory (which may conceal a similarly deterministic formalism)?

      It seems like what information/knowledge we have about a system and even its scale has a deep impact as to whether we view the phenomenon as deterministic or stochastic. The weather is notoriously difficult to predict precisely because of chaotic dynamics, but at a smaller level, it is governed by deterministic Navier-Stokes. I suppose one of the workarounds you mention is long term aggregates such as climate modelling, or coarse-grained macrostate as extracting thermodynamics from Einstein solids would. Though it is interesting whether knowledge/information about the system affects how we assign what exactly constitutes a micro vs macrostate.

      Thanks again for a though-provoking essay!

      Best,

      Jesse

        Dear Sir,

        Chance is a possibility of something happening. It depends upon the knowledge of all possible outcomes. Otherwise, whatever is happening will appear to be natural cause and effect relationship. Random is proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern, or, done or happening without method or conscious decision - or as you say: 'unpredictable'. But is there any proof that the universe appears to be decidedly random? Can the randomness not be attributed to our inability to "know" the secrets or the subtleties of Nature? Or as you say: "something more fundamental and less ordered"? After all, everything is interconnected and interrelated at the fundamental level and there is order behind the seemingly chaos represented by the butterfly effect. Each step precedes the following step in a cause and effect relationship. If could somehow know the steps, it would be purely deterministic. However, the intermittent external effects bring in the uncertainties that make it appear random.

        But are these uncertainties really unpredictable? If we focus only on the trajectory of one event, it appears unpredictable, as we do not know when something will interfere. But if we could somehow know ALL factors contributing to the uncertainties, it no longer looks uncertain or random. Think of a car accident happening in front of you, where you are standing at a vantage point to see everything clearly. We have seen many such cases. The persons involved in the accident did not foresee it. For them, it was random - a chance. But from our vintage position, we could see how one or the other deviated from the predicted path to meet with the accident. With a further query on their mental or physical condition, we could pin point the exact cause.

        While one of the two may be aware of the likelihood of accident by watching the behavior of the other, we would be confident about the outcome, because we observing the behavior of both. Thus, each step in every action is precisely deterministic, but not always revealed to us. This makes the determinism to have two variants: fully deterministic as we see the totality from our vantage point, and partly (or as you say nearly) deterministic, as one of the participants who tries to avoid the accident immediately before it occurred sees. He could have avoided the accident had he seen it earlier or as you say: nearly random. You also describe this in a different language: "the actual occurrence of the process" and "outcomes of that process".

        Your part II is a brilliant analysis and needs no comment. But in part III, we wish you could have considered a more practical example like the three quarks inside a proton or neutron and the neutrino/anti-neutrino. At a certain level, even conscious actions are mechanical. We "feel" a "need" to "rectify some deficiency". If we have the "knowledge" about the "mechanism for rectifying the needs", then only we will have a "desire to act". This is the goal. The determination to translate the goal to achievement in a specific way, is our freewill. The freewill determines the action to be executed. Only thereafter, the readiness potential is developed in the brain, which signals the different body parts to execute that command through the network of genes. In the quantum or inert macro world, a particle "feels" a "need" to "adjust to some energy". If it had the "mechanism for rectifying the needs", then only we will "desire to act" within permissible limits in permissible ways to achieve a new state.

        Finally, the randomness of quantum mechanics are not necessary condition for freewill. But it offers choices to choose from - hence appears random. Also you have pointed out correctly that "even deterministic systems can't predict the results of their decision-making process ahead of time". Thus, time also is one of the causes for everything.

        You have shown that the seeds of such an understanding might be found in simple combinatorics. This is absolutely essential. In our essay here, we have shown the 10 dimensions needed for string theory and M theory can be physically derived without entering into the complexities of abstract mathematics.

        Regards

        basudeba

        Dear Ian Durham

        A good account of probability, at one level, related to simple macro states, at a different level.

        Something to consider: If I choose carrots, how is this macro state decision carried back down to the micro state level? This is one of the disconnects I see with such arguments - are macro level 'intentions' defined by micro level states or processes? If so, how is a macro level decision defined, and decided, at the micro level?

        If the reductionist hypothesis of physics is correct, all actions derive from the micro (or smaller) level. While you have shown how random micro states can produce macro state semi-determinism, this begs the issue of intentionality possibly originating from the macro level.

        One other comment is a concern over the mathematical tools used for this (and a number of other) physical models: Both statistics and probability only allow operations from the smaller to the larger levels. This is fine if all actions only stem from the smaller to the larger levels. However, if this assumption is not correct, then using these mathematical tools will prevent any attempt to show influence from the higher to the lower levels.

        I will suggest that physicists creating experiments that drive change at 'micro' levels (human intentional actions) is a good indication that all actions do not stem from the smaller to the larger and the reductionist assumption is incorrect. This would require changes to the mathematical models and tools we have today.

        Don

          Dear Sirs!

          Physics of Descartes, which existed prior to the physics of Newton returned as the New Cartesian Physic and promises to be a theory of everything. To tell you this good news I use spam.

          New Cartesian Physic based on the identity of space and matter. It showed that the formula of mass-energy equivalence comes from the pressure of the Universe, the flow of force which on the corpuscle is equal to the product of Planck's constant to the speed of light.

          New Cartesian Physic has great potential for understanding the world. To show it, I ventured to give "materialistic explanations of the paranormal and supernatural" is the title of my essay.

          Visit my essay, you will find there the New Cartesian Physic and make a short entry: "I believe that space is a matter" I will answer you in return. Can put me 1.

          Sincerely,

          Dizhechko Boris

          Thanks Jesse! I will add your essay to my list (which is growing!). Incidentally, I briefly worked for the National Weather Service on their computer models. There's a reason the most powerful computers in the world are weather and climate computers... :)

          Regarding chaotic dynamics, that's an intriguing question. I don't know enough about chaos theory, but I'm thinking I need to start to learn more about it. I know some folks who work in quantum chaos actually.

          Hi Don, well, you're not alone in your thoughts in this regard. George Ellis certainly agrees that the typical reductionist model of physics is not the full story. I, on the other hand, haven't yet given up hope that reductionism still holds the answer.

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