Dear Sir,
Chance is a possibility of something happening. It depends upon the knowledge of all possible outcomes. Otherwise, whatever is happening will appear to be natural cause and effect relationship. Random is proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern, or, done or happening without method or conscious decision - or as you say: 'unpredictable'. But is there any proof that the universe appears to be decidedly random? Can the randomness not be attributed to our inability to "know" the secrets or the subtleties of Nature? Or as you say: "something more fundamental and less ordered"? After all, everything is interconnected and interrelated at the fundamental level and there is order behind the seemingly chaos represented by the butterfly effect. Each step precedes the following step in a cause and effect relationship. If could somehow know the steps, it would be purely deterministic. However, the intermittent external effects bring in the uncertainties that make it appear random.
But are these uncertainties really unpredictable? If we focus only on the trajectory of one event, it appears unpredictable, as we do not know when something will interfere. But if we could somehow know ALL factors contributing to the uncertainties, it no longer looks uncertain or random. Think of a car accident happening in front of you, where you are standing at a vantage point to see everything clearly. We have seen many such cases. The persons involved in the accident did not foresee it. For them, it was random - a chance. But from our vintage position, we could see how one or the other deviated from the predicted path to meet with the accident. With a further query on their mental or physical condition, we could pin point the exact cause.
While one of the two may be aware of the likelihood of accident by watching the behavior of the other, we would be confident about the outcome, because we observing the behavior of both. Thus, each step in every action is precisely deterministic, but not always revealed to us. This makes the determinism to have two variants: fully deterministic as we see the totality from our vantage point, and partly (or as you say nearly) deterministic, as one of the participants who tries to avoid the accident immediately before it occurred sees. He could have avoided the accident had he seen it earlier or as you say: nearly random. You also describe this in a different language: "the actual occurrence of the process" and "outcomes of that process".
Your part II is a brilliant analysis and needs no comment. But in part III, we wish you could have considered a more practical example like the three quarks inside a proton or neutron and the neutrino/anti-neutrino. At a certain level, even conscious actions are mechanical. We "feel" a "need" to "rectify some deficiency". If we have the "knowledge" about the "mechanism for rectifying the needs", then only we will have a "desire to act". This is the goal. The determination to translate the goal to achievement in a specific way, is our freewill. The freewill determines the action to be executed. Only thereafter, the readiness potential is developed in the brain, which signals the different body parts to execute that command through the network of genes. In the quantum or inert macro world, a particle "feels" a "need" to "adjust to some energy". If it had the "mechanism for rectifying the needs", then only we will "desire to act" within permissible limits in permissible ways to achieve a new state.
Finally, the randomness of quantum mechanics are not necessary condition for freewill. But it offers choices to choose from - hence appears random. Also you have pointed out correctly that "even deterministic systems can't predict the results of their decision-making process ahead of time". Thus, time also is one of the causes for everything.
You have shown that the seeds of such an understanding might be found in simple combinatorics. This is absolutely essential. In our essay here, we have shown the 10 dimensions needed for string theory and M theory can be physically derived without entering into the complexities of abstract mathematics.
Regards
basudeba