Science was greatly advanced by three factors that did not have to happen: Greek Mathematics, ancient Astronomy, and medieval Christianity. Without these, we might never have discovered the abstract mathematical theories we have today and instead gotten similar empirical results from data-driven black-box computer models.
Three Flukes Made Modern Science Possible
For the future. There is an essay here, uh, with an interesting conclusion: If the sky was always in clouds, then science would be different.
We make the statement wider:
The existing boundaries of knowledge determine the level of knowledge. In a flat world, there will be flat science. In the 4-dimensional world there will be 4-dimensional science. On Earth, science is regulated by the level of development of engineering and technology. In time, the rules of science were determined by the chain Church - Power - Money. The current situation in physics (not in science!!!) is created by the opinion "The more money we give/spend, the greater the effect of physics."
"Science would be all about feeding large datasets into black boxes for artificially
intelligent predictions."
I don't agree with you that science can be only a collect of big datas . Take the example of black body radiation, without Planck model as a black body is many resonators on the wall of the black body and which radiate at many frequencies without any order we will never the good experimental law of the balck body radiation. Planck model is a mathematical model which agree with experiment and I can say also that this model is approximative model, why? because the resonators are electron oscillators and Planck don't take consideration in his formulae about the mass of the electron.
Thinking and building physics with strong mathematical models is the way to made science better. Statistics never can't replace building mathematical models because Nature itself is a great mathematical connections which are appreciate in levels of dualities unity-multiplicity. We should trust in mathematics and the go on -go back between models and experiments to build a scientific culture.
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Roger Schlafly
You write:
<<Mathematics gives us a system for obtaining certain truths.>>
Mathematics and physics are currently experiencing a conceptual and paradigm crisis of the metaphysical/ontological basis, which manifests itself as a "crisis of understanding" ("J. Horgan "The End of Science", Kopeikin K.V. "Souls" of atoms and "atoms" of the soul : Wolfgang Ernst Pauli, Carl Gustav Jung and "three great problems of physics"), "loss of certainty" (Kline M. "Mathematics: Loss of Certainty"), "crisis of interpretation and representation" (Romanovskaya T.B. "Modern physics and contemporary art - parallels of style"), "trouble with physics" (Lee Smolin "Trouble with Physics").
The problem in the foundations of mathematics is more than a hundred years old.
We recall the famous statement of G. Weil (1946) as a kind of "summing up" half a century of intellectual "butting" of the giants of mathematics in the first half of the 20th century on the problem of the foundations of mathematics:
“Now we are less sure than ever of the primary foundations of mathematics and logic. We are experiencing our "crisis" in the same way as everyone and everything in the modern world is experiencing it." (Quoted by M. Kline "Mathematics: Loss of Certainty")
I agree with Alexander Zenkin, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences: "the truth should be drawn..."
(SCIENTIFIC COUNTER REVOLUTION IN MATHEMATICS)
and the conclusion of the mathematician and philosopher Dmitry Bukin:
"The crisis of the foundations of mathematics is, first of all, the crisis of ontology, the essence of which is the inability to describe objects, the fact of being or becoming of which goes beyond the usual ideas about the world. Way out such a crisis state should be sought not so much in the improvement of the methods of mathematics itself, but in the renewal of the cognitive means of ontology, which do not deny the classical paradigm, but can go beyond its framework. is a historically proven method of comprehending the existence of a mathematical object in its development and relationship with objective reality.">> (CRISIS OF THE FOUNDATIONS OF MATHEMATICS AS A CRISIS OF ONTOLOGY")
That is, the problem is not just "the foundations of mathematics", but specifically the problem of the ontological foundation of mathematics (ontological basification).
But for some reason, mathematicians sweep the problem "under the rug" ...
Next you write:
<<General relativity teaches that spacetime is curved, and that might seem contrary to Euclid's theorems. But it is not. Those theorems are correct statements about flat space, and that math was used as the foundation for theorems about curved space that ultimately got applied to relativity.>>
David Deutsch: “The best of our theories show deep discrepancies between them and the reality they are supposed to explain. One of the most egregious examples of this is that in physics there are now two fundamental "systems of the world" - quantum theory and general relativity - and that they are fundamentally inconsistent with each other."
Brian Greene: “By understanding how space and time come into being, we could take a huge step towards answering the key question, what kind of geometric structure actually comes into being.”
Lee Smolin: “All the theories we work with, including the Standard Model of Particles Physics and general relativity, are approximate theories, applying to truncations of nature that include only a subset of the degrees of freedom in the universe. We call such an approximate theory an effective theory.”
General relativity is a phenomenological (parametric, operationalist, "effective") theory without an ontological justification (ontological basification).
It is necessary to solve the problem not only of the ontological justification of mathematics (ontological basification), but of knowledge in general. This means building a New Expanded Ideality, "grasping" (understanding) the ontological structure of space and understanding the phenomenon of time.
"The event of grasping the structure means understanding." (G. Gutner "Ontology of mathematical discourse")
Pavel Florensky: “We repeat: worldunderstanding is spaceunderstanding.”
I like how you looked for the good influences that steered science in the western world.
I often look for those things which are MOST certain, and organize related things around most certain ones.
Your assertion that Mathematical truths are forever. is a certainly a good candidate.
Also, central tenant of Christianity is to seek truth above all else.
Shakespeare said it too, "To thy own self be true." Suddenly I'm reminded of this poem, I hope you find it a source of encouragement:
Keep asking and you shall receive,
Keep seeking and you will achieve,
Keep knocking and doors will open wide,
Respect others, let love be your guide.
Love your neighbor as you love yourself,
Love God with all that you have felt,
Your existence is an unchanging fact,
Everything's here and now, so act.
One is all, all is one, so true,
What you give, comes back to you,
These fine laws will never shift,
Everything else is in constant drift.
Ask and the universe will provide,
Answers will come from the source inside,
Receive without resistance, just let go,
Master this step, blessings will flow.
No matter the circumstance, stay upbeat,
This positive attitude, always keep,
Weave these ideas into your life's theme,
And watch your dreams turn to a reality stream.
For indeed Euclid laid the foundations of his famous geometry. However, my profound discovery isthat the whole universe is a Hyperspherical Hologram -- an ever-expanding Event Horizon that we call our universe. Time is the polar coordinate of the quantum-thin onion layers of time.)
Please read the essay: "What if we knew 123 year ago what we know now?" Hope you like it.
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Here are my take aways from your 3 Flukes…
• Greeks developed axiomatic Mathematics, allowing mathematicians to achieve truths with certainty.
• Astronomy revealed a mathematical regularity of celestial objects and enabled the prediction of eclipses & Moon/Sun size/distance ratios make umbral shadow ideal for studying solar corona & validating Einstein's General Relativity.
• Christianity taught that the world was orderly, drove out superstition, and enabled the nuclear family and individualism.
• Computers, big data, and Statistical methods allowed for further scientific discoveries.
• Neural nets efficiently utilize vast amounts of information and have become useful scientific instruments.
• Today's Science is heavily reliant on black box methods where Artificial Intelligence is used to make predictions based on large data sets.
I'm becoming more & more conscious of the distinctions between knowledge, supposed knowledge & understanding.
So much of the scientific literature speaks of and teaches that science is all about knowledge. However, the epistemological processes by which we achieve a state of "knowing" takes us from uncertainty, step-by-step, towards certainty. Its at the thresholds between knowing "about" a subject versus actually "understanding" the subject, that we can stand upon that foundation towards "Wisdom" -- that is to apply it to future intensions & endeavors.
Thanks, for the contributions that your perspectives bring to our collective quest to seek, to comprehend and come to an understanding of this mysterious cosmic puzzle we call our ever-expanding universe.
Please ponder the content of essay "What if we knew 123 years ago what we know now?" The story within a story culminates in profound and far reaching insights. Blessings to you in your ongoing quest…
Alaya Kouki You say "Statistics never can't replace building mathematical models", and I agree with that. Sometimes you need the mathematical models. I am just speculating on how science might have progressed with less sophisticated mathematics.
How do you explain this one ?
quote
Japanese mathematics (和算, wasan) denotes a distinct kind of mathematics which was developed in Japan during the Edo period (1603–1867). The term wasan, from wa ("Japanese") and san ("calculation"), was coined in the 1870s[1] and employed to distinguish native Japanese mathematical theory from Western mathematics (洋算 yōsan).[2]
In the history of mathematics, the development of wasan falls outside the Western realm. At the beginning of the Meiji period (1868–1912), Japan and its people opened themselves to the West. Japanese scholars adopted Western mathematical technique, and this led to a decline of interest in the ideas used in wasan.
History
The soroban in Yoshida Koyu's Jinkōki (1641 edition)
The Japanese mathematical schema evolved during a period when Japan's people were isolated from European influences, but instead borrowed from ancient mathematical texts written in China, including those from the Yuan dynasty and earlier. The Japanese mathematicians Yoshida Shichibei Kōyū, Imamura Chishō, and Takahara Kisshu are among the earliest known Japanese mathematicians. They came to be known to their contemporaries as "the Three Arithmeticians".[3][4]
Yoshida was the author of the oldest extant Japanese mathematical text, the 1627 work called Jinkōki. The work dealt with the subject of soroban arithmetic, including square and cube root operations.[5] Yoshida's book significantly inspired a new generation of mathematicians, and redefined the Japanese perception of educational enlightenment, which was defined in the Seventeen Article Constitution as "the product of earnest meditation".[6]
Seki Takakazu founded enri (円理: circle principles), a mathematical system with the same purpose as calculus at a similar time to calculus's development in Europe. However Seki's investigations did not proceed from the same foundations as those used in Newton's studies in Europe.[7]
Mathematicians like Takebe Katahiro played and important role in developing Enri (" circle principle"), a crude analog to the Western calculus.[8] He obtained power series expansion of
{\displaystyle (arcsin(x))^{2}} in 1722, 15 years earlier than Euler. He used Richardson extrapolation in 1695, about 200 years earlier than Richardson.[9] He also computed 41 digits of π, based on polygon approximation and Richardson extrapolation.[10]
end of quote
It is not that you are wrong, you are not considering parallel developments.
People all over the WORLD were doing mathematics. Consider your suppositions
Andrew Beckwith The accomplishments of those Japanese are significant, but there is no claim that they discovered mathematical proof.
Vladimir Rogozhin I do not agree that there is any crisis in the foundations of Mathematics. Maybe there was a century ago, but the foundations have been solid for a long time.
You say that general relativity is an effective theory, and I guess Smolin thinks that of all Physics theories. Okay, I can accept that about Physics, but not Mathematics. Mathematical truths are eternal.
If Mathematics truths are eternal then why is the Riemann hypothesis still unsolved ?
Seems like the converse is true.
Mathematics "facts" are eternal if PROVED.
And are you aware of the so called solution to the four color problem ?
quote
The proof was refined in 1996 by a team of four mathematicians: Robertson, Sanders, Seymour, and Thomas, but they still relied on computer code to complete their proof. In 2010, Steinberger offered another variation. However, there is still no completely satisfying answer as to why the 4-colour theorem is true.Nov 24, 20
end of quote
What constitutes a PROOF in Mathematics ? The answer is still not clear in all cases. And a computer assisted "proof" is by definition assisted by technology
Regarding as to mathematics as physics, The limitations of observing math ie 'physics,' are not fully integrated into intuition. For instance, the 3 spatial dimensions cannot have the same characteristics, the same inner structure, because if they did, they would be indistinguishable, and we would observe them as only one dimension. This notion lends weigh to the idea that the four dimensions of space-time are just the four nicely normed infinitely divisible algebras: **R, C, H, and O.** The differing inner structures of these algebras seem to dovetail nicely with the different particles and constriants of Standard Model. (Yes. Details to be worked out. Anyway.) And again, with the Hamiltonian and Octonion algebras, we have symmetries in the three and seven imaginary dimensions respectively. So to figure out observational statistics from first principle, the combinatorics of those algebras would have to be worked out.
Nice to see Euclid get a little extra love. (JBTW: The 5th of Euclid's "Common Notions," which precede his postulates, like his 5th postulate itself, also seems to admit to alternative (If also counterintuitive) possibilities for further insight.)
Andrew Beckwith The Riemann hypothesis is not a mathematical truth. No one knows whether it can be proved or not.
The 4-color theorem has been proved. The proof is accessible and not hard to understand. It could be formalized in ZFC or whatever your favorite system is. Yes, it uses a computer to check some of the cases.
Whether an answer is "completely satisfying" is a matter of opinion. Someone could argue that the proof of 2+2=4 is not completely satisfying.
This essay has a lot of ratings, but not many comments. Please post comments, especially if you disagree.
Before giving you feedback on your essay, I just want to mention some thoughts of mine about what you wrote about commenting and critizising.
I not (yet) voted your essay nor did I post a comment on your essay page. But I already read your essay twice. And I read your latest comment and think you are on to something. Notwithstanding that your 21 ratings could amount to a high or a low appreciation for your essay, many voters seem to think that the voting comments are sufficient to make their points, without aiming at some feedback from the author for possible misunderstandings or overseen aspects of own reasonings.
Moreover, the first bunch of submitted essays obviously – at least in part – granted each other the priviledge to be amongst the essays that have more than 10 votes – and according to the rules therefore are subject to expert judgement.
The essays that came later are still not sufficiently voted, be it because the voters take their time until doing it immediately before the deadline, or they see no sense in voting since mathematically they assume there is an asymmetry of voting others essays and not having their own essay voted. That is at least what my point of view is – why should I vote a certain essay when even my comments don't get any replies (with minor exceptions!)?
Shouldn't it be the other way round: an author should reply and clarify if needed when there are critical arguments raised on what he has written. It seems to me that the whole discussion about judges, arxiv and the like does somewhat repeat in this contest on the same level the opponents of peer review are eager to argue against. What a mess that would be in adapting a double standard and then complaining about double standards.
Now to your essay. You wrote that certain historic lines in the evolution of science have been contingent. This can only be true when the universe we live in is not fully deterministic. Although we do not (yet) understand how a not-so-deterministic universe should look like, we nonetheless can deduce what a fully deterministic one looks like: it does not leave any room for the evolution of science to have been other than it was and therefore any speculation about an alternative history of science would be ill-defined.
Note that I do not presume you to having adopted that strictly deterministic world view. Since you also wrote about Darwinian evolution, the latter will also be suspicious to be ill-defined for the case that it is true that we live in a fully deterministic universe. Because then the reasons for Darwinian evolution to have happened (in every unknown detail) was pre-programed into the initial conditions exacly in the way it happened – up to the last bit of mutation – and therefore no “selection” ever took place in a strictly deterministic world!
Thus, believing in the big bang and also in a strictly deterministic universe poses the question about very, very, very special initial conditions. If we additionally assume that a black-box science will some day discover a “theory of everything” - then we would really live in a very special universe – wouldn't we? Even if there are myriads of other universes, each with slightly different initial conditions, our universe would arguably be a special one regarding the propper configuration to obtain the “full truth” about the universe. In other words, its configuration then would be such that its information processing would be perfectly set up to determine the “full truth”.
From the point of view that there could be many independent universes “out there”, this result of “speciality” may not be more than a simple computational truth, and there would be nothing to wonder about. But wait a minute, we do not at all know whether or not there does exist such a “theory for everything”, and if such a theory nonetheless would be possible, we do not know at all whether or not WE will ever be able to find it: according to a strictly deterministic world view, that information is hidden and totally inaccesible within the initial conditions of the universe (or if we believe that the universe has no origin in time, it is hidden in what globally happens “now” with every particle / wave in the universe while I type these lines of reasoning).
My whole argument amounts to the question whether or not those initial conditions themselves must be considered as contingent or not. You wrote about the eternal truth of mathematical relationships. I agree that there must be something about reality that truly is eternal. There should be some eternal truths, since otherwise truths would come and go randomly and no logical thinking would be reliable and we could stop here. I think one of these truths is that in a strictly deterministic universe where Darwinian evolution only seems to be governed by randomness, but in fact would be governed by some unimaginably “fine-tuned” initial conditions, the latter do not allow for any examination an especially not for any prediction of whether or not Artificial Intelligence will be able to produce further insights into the question whether or not our universe is deterministic or not!
Since if it would be strictly deterministic, mine and also your thoughts about these issues would be strictly determined – but the latter would not guarantee that our thoughts would also be determined to reflect any fundamental truth about the bigger picture of reality. And the same would then also be true for any kind of AI-governed black-box science – since the very assumption of some very special but in-principle unknowable initial conditions in a fully deterministic world would already be the ultimate black-box that no AI could ever hack since it lacks a complete description of all the particles / waves in our universe at any time!
Roger Schlafly
Responding to your call for comments, I thought I would read your essay. But I couldn’t get past the first paragraph before disagreeing with the essay:
“...you have to accept the universality of mathematical truths and be receptive to the idea that we live in a clockwork universe where nature behaves in an orderly way.”
No. In fact, “you have to accept the universality of” relationships that can be represented using mathematical symbols; a very different thing to “mathematical truths”.
Yes, clearly “nature behaves in an orderly way” due to the abovementioned relationships. But no: the abovementioned relationships do not imply that “we live in a clockwork universe”, because it is apparent that, in the real physical world, the numbers are very often refusing to play ball. The problem of the misbehaving numbers is not some error or misunderstanding on the part of physicists, it is just a fact.
Dreary, dreary, dreary (from my point of view). Then I got to the absolute drivel, and absurd ideas about computers/ AIs, on page 6:
“They may even get to the artificial intelligence singularity, and people might become slaves to super-intelligent robots that take over the world. The laws of physics would become implicit in the trillion-parameter models being used. The computers could deduce everything we can with our theories and much more, but the poor mortals would have no conceptual understanding of how the world works.”
The above irrational imaginings are seemingly due to not knowing how computers work. In fact, binary digits don’t even exist, except in the human imagination. The technical article “Logic Signal Voltage Levels” (https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/textbook/digital/chpt-3/logic-signal-voltage-levels ) explains the connection between voltage and binary digits/ “logic states” in computers. If you read this technical article will notice that there is no necessary connection between voltage (a measurable aspect of the world) and binary digits, which are not a measurable aspect of the world. In other words, binary digits/ “logic states” are merely an idea that human beings have imposed on voltages, where the whole setup including circuits and transistors makes the idea work. Binary digits only exist in the human imagination, and there is no actual logic being performed by computers/ AIs.
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Once a theorem is proved, there is no need to
test it, or expend any effort to question it
the reverse of proving is disproving , that's why there is so much pollution, there isn't any effort in the deconstruction breaking/ forgetting/ disassembly/ dropping/releasing returning to initial state; everythings builds up at the critical collapse point .Of course something can be proven in various ways , once something is proven , it is just a checkpoint for other steps, that could mean proving, the same, afresh .
Stefan Weckbach I do not take a position on whether the universe is fully deterministic. Yes, Isaac Newton and others looked for laws governing a clockwork universe, and those laws were mostly deterministic, but there could still be hidden information or indeterministic laws.
Whether or not the universe is fully deterministic, it is still useful to discuss what could have happened. This whole essay contest is an invitation to discuss what could have happened, or what might happen. It is a cop-out to say it has all been determined since the Big Bang, and so cannot be anything different.
Lorraine Ford You say that nature is orderly, but not like clockwork. Based on this distinction, you say that I am wrong about something.
I do not see this distinction. More importantly, I doubt that scientists in the past followed the distinction either. Many had a belief that the universe was orderly and/or like clockwork.
Computers certainly do perform logic. Your linked article explains how voltages can be used to make logic gates. No, it is not a figment of the human imagination. Every time a computer adds two numbers, it is using logic gates. That is how computers work.
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Hi MustardGorilla, thank you for the reply. I also think that counterfactual reasoning is an important element of the human cognitive outfit. We need it to evaluate future consequences for our decisions we want to make in the present. This also could be a counterargument against the belief that all our decisions and thoughts are somewhat determined by something we not even are able to fully understand and completely can evaluate, namely the fundamental ontology of all-what-exists.
May I ask you to read my own essay - I also would be happy about a critical comment from you after that. In the meantime I will re-read your essay and then comment on the 3 flukes you mentioned. Maybe I have overlooked the main points you made due to my general thoughts on determinism!
Roger Schlafly
No matter what some scientists in the past thought, “quantum randomness” gives the lie to any idea of a clockwork universe. This “randomness” is not due to some error or misunderstanding on the part of physicists, it is an integral part of how the universe works.
The point about the linked article is that binary digits don’t exist, except in the human imagination: what exists is voltage, which is a measurable aspect of the real physical world.
“Every time a computer adds two numbers”
A computer is not adding two numbers: there are no numbers, and there is no addition.
There are no numbers, there are only voltages used to represent numbers:
- Different number systems (hexadecimal or binary) can be used to represent the same number. In other words, two completely different arrays of voltages can represent the same number.
- In addition to this, binary numbers are symbolically represented by arrays of higher and lower voltages. In general the higher voltage will represent the binary digit one, but in fact the lower voltage can also be used to represent the binary digit one. Once again, depending on the setup, two completely different arrays of voltages can represent the same number, where “101” and “010” could represent the very same number.
- In addition to this, binary digits can be represented using different voltage ranges. In the case where the higher voltage is used to represent the binary digit one, the binary digit one does not correspond to a particular voltage number.
- In addition to this, there are no numbers, there are just arrays of interconnected voltages.
There is no addition:
A computer is not adding two numbers. People who knew the properties of voltages, transistors and circuits, created computers using voltages, transistors and circuits to symbolise the adding of two numbers.
Lorraine Ford Your argument about quantum randomness has nothing to do with my essay. I am not making an argument for strict determinism.
Computers do not just symbolize adding numbers. They actually add the numbers. You could say that it uses a symbolic method, but you could say that about anything. If I write a number with ink on paper, then you could say that it is a symbolic representation of the number. But what is your point here? Everybody knows about number representations. What does this have to do with my essay?
Roger Schlafly
What does this have to do with your essay? I am refuting what you say in your essay.
I have just explained why there are no numbers in computers, and why computers are not doing addition, and I might well have added that “logic gates” are not doing logic. “Logic gates” / transistors are useful because they can be used to symbolise logic, if you place them in the right setting of circuits and voltages, and with the right computer program.
“Everybody knows about number representations”
Do they? What are numbers? The real world, including bodies, brains and the physical correlates of consciousness, is built out of real-world categories (examples would be mass, energy, position), real-world lawful relationships, and real-world numbers. Numbers representing the real world are obtained from measurement of the real world (e.g. by physicists). People use symbols to represent these real world numbers, but the real world numbers are not in any way implied by the symbols that are used to represent them (except from the point of view of pre-existing educated human beings), and the symbols of numbers don’t reverse-engineer themselves and transmogrify into real-world numbers.
The voltages, circuits, and transistors in computers, that might well be used to represent real-world numbers, real-world categories, and real-world lawful relationships (possibly including the physical correlates of consciousness), don’t reverse-engineer themselves and transmogrify into real-world numbers, real-world categories, and real-world lawful relationships, and real-world consciousness.
Lorraine Ford I see you have an essay that numbers exist only in human imagination, and have nothing to do with the real world. You seem to be drawing some trivial distinction between numbers and representations of numbers, but I don't see what difference it makes. Would science be somehow different if scientists followed your idiosyncratic definitions?
Roger Schlafly
Re your own essay:
I am objecting to your mindless propagation of the following sort of nonsense:
“They may even get to the artificial intelligence singularity, and people might become slaves to super-intelligent robots that take over the world. The laws of physics would become implicit in the trillion-parameter models being used. The computers could deduce everything we can with our theories and much more, but the poor mortals would have no conceptual understanding of how the world works.”
In my above reply, I explained that computers/ AIs merely symbolically represent numbers, addition, and logic; computers/ AIs are not actually performing addition or logic. The symbolically represented numbers in computers are not like the numbers that the real physical world is made of. The same goes for the symbolically represented categories and relationships in computers: they are not like the categories and relationships that the real physical world is made of.
Re my own essay:
As I have noted above (and I said more or less the same thing in my essay):
“The real world, including bodies, brains and the physical correlates of consciousness, is built out of real-world categories (examples would be mass, energy, position), real-world lawful relationships, and real-world numbers. Numbers representing the real world are obtained from measurement of the real world … People use symbols to represent these real world numbers …”
There is a difference between the real physical world (e.g. a real-world number associated with relative position) and the symbols that people use to represent the world like a number symbol. Although symbols may be made out of measurable physical matter, the symbol aspect of the matter only exists from the point of view of people.
Contrary to what you say, there is no “trivial distinction between numbers and representations of numbers”. There is no “trivial distinction” between the real-physical-world categories, the real-physical-world lawful relationships, and the real-physical-world numbers that the real physical world is made out of, on the one hand, and the mere symbols that people use to represent these real-world categories, real-world lawful relationships, and real-world numbers on the other hand. There is no “trivial distinction”, there is an enormous distinction.
Lorraine Ford I think that everyone reading this page understands that digital computers use digital representations.
Roger Schlafly
Yes, so that is why your:
“They may even get to the artificial intelligence singularity, and people might become slaves to super-intelligent robots that take over the world. The laws of physics would become implicit in the trillion-parameter models being used. The computers could deduce everything we can with our theories and much more, but the poor mortals would have no conceptual understanding of how the world works.”
is complete nonsense. I object to your propagation of this complete and utter nonsense.
Hi MustardGorilla, I now read your essay once again.
You nicely and reasonably worked out the first fluke, although I would suggest that even before human beings began to systematically examine the mathematical precisions of the heavens, they must have had a deep intuition that the world is, in certain areas, deeply ordered. For example humans self-evidently know that their bodies usually follow their inner intents (surely within the limits of what can be achieved by human bodies), for example lifting an arm etc. This is also a kind of order, although not a mathematically predetermined one, and not subject to rigorous proofs, since bodies can also misbehave (illness etc.).
Since mathematics starts with counting, it is no wonder that it exists, since in everyday life, things are countable. The wonder, at least to me, is that it can be extended to ever more abstract objects in the minds of human beings, like for example an uncountable infinity. Here I would be cautious whether or not such an uncountable infinity has any counterpart in the natural world, although that infinity can be proven to be consistent with the basic assumptions of mathematics. This surely poses the question whether or not a consistent mathematical object and its constituents must have any counterparts in the physical world, or are just a concatenation of logical operations in the human mind.
The next fluke you rightfully mention is solar and lunar eclipses:
“What if we had no eclipses? And if the sky were cloudy all the time, we would have no Astronomy. No stars, no moon, no planets, and no celestial mechanics. Where would we even get the idea of a clockwork universe?”
Very good question in my opinion and a remarkable fluke indeed. Someone like me is tempted to say that it looks a bit like fine-tuning for the purpose of discovering the wonders of creation for everybody to see if one is willing to look.
Your third fluke is also surely remarkable. In the dark ages, there were no bibles written in other languages than Latin or Greek around in Europe, this had to wait until Guttenberg came along. Only the curches had complete scripts of the holy texts. People must have relied on what had been preached from the pulpit. Only after Guttenberg people where able to study the holy texts and think about them. This must have been a real step towards proving and / or disproving what was said from the pulpit. Unless this happened, people were already creative in developing ever more sophisticated tools for everyday life as well as ever sophisticated theories about the regularities in the world. After the bible was accessible for everyone, civilisation refined its system of justice, based on what has been found in the bible and on what has been found out about logical deduction / induction. We therefore should do a little justice to christianity, since Newton and surely others were inspired by the bible to blieve that within creation there must be deep order. If they did not believe that, they rarely would have figured out what we know today.
Your next assumption, the inevitability of computers and even AI, can really be seen as the consequence and the success of a deterministic, clockwork world view that had its beginnings with the ancient astronomers, and its subsequent refinement towards an exclusive worldview of mechanistic causality: Aristotle's final causes more and more lost their meaning within science. The more astonishing it is for me that with the new era of AI, these final causes seem to have a revival in somewhat new clothes: AI is supposed to deliver the final answers to questions that human beings haven't been able to answer yet. AI itself is seen as somewhat the teleologically pre-determined end point of fundamental scientific research. But that is only a belief, based on the successes of the clockwork world view. However, according to the bible, there exists another mode of prediction, it is called prophecy. There are many prophecies that already fullfilled. To name only one, the one that made christianity possible in the first place, was discovered by a retired Scotland Yard Inspector. His name was Sir Robert Anderson, and he deciphered a prophecy in the book of Daniel, Chapter 9, 25-27, so that we can determine the day Jesus Christ has ridden into Jerusalem on a donkey. We therefore can also deduce when Jesus began to preach, he was 29 years old (in the epistles it is stated that he was around 30 years old when he began to preach).
This is only one of many examples which, together with biblical archeology and language examination show that the book of Daniel must have been written long before Christ was born. Understanding Darwinian evolution without genetics is a matter of fact, but we should not forget that is also a matter of fact that we have no clue how the first self-replicating thing (something very, very complicated which must be stable and reliably copy itself for Darwinian evolution to at all take place) came into the world.
“What if Science had developed without reliable mathematics and a belief in universal laws? … Eventually, they would get computers and neural nets and scale up to large language models. They would make science problem-solving engines where they would feed in data and get valuable predictions.”
No, I think this is fantasy. To faciliate a computer, to produce semi-conductors and all the rest, you surely need some reliable mathematics and moreover a kind of conceptual framework how nature works, at least in its coars-grained appearance.
“If we had gotten to large language models before classical mechanics, we might have developed a very different idea of science. Science would be all about feeding large datasets into black boxes for artificially intelligent predictions.”
Again no, since you need tested, reliable theories to build something that complicated like a computer array. In other words, you need a sufficiently accurate model in your head how nature behaves, otherwise building a computer like we have today counterfactually makes no sense at all.
All in all I found that your essay expresses some memorable flukes, worth thinking about in my opinion!
Stefan Weckbach Thanks for your detailed comments. I agree that mathematical objects like infinities do not necessarily have real world counterparts. You could be right that reliable mathematics would have to come before large computers. I am speculating in my essay.
Thank you also MustardGorilla for evaluating my comments.
Best wishes
AquamarineTapir
Global externalities and Black Box Science happened in spite of the flukes that made modern science possible. Some interesting points regarding math, astronomy and Christianity. The latter did promote the nuclear family but don't see it cultivating the individualism you mention. Not much room in our essays to make definitive connections. Seems natural for the ancients as well as the moderns to be drawn to astronomy and its wonders, mysteries explained with religion and finally science. Soft science is with us but also a bastardized science with a business agenda, robbing science of a more purist focus and replacing it with a bias for the commercial. That's the distortion I see that needs correcting.
Roger Schlafly You searched for historical reasons for the development of our science. I think your explanations are good, and even if they are not, they are a base for further improvements.
You made even some predictions, i.e. about GPT10. We will see. Only your Black box science is too simplified, but this essay is short, and time is limited for such research. I would add here that guessing of physical formulae also belongs to this black box and p-value. Although we do not know p-values at such guessing, we can estimate it and later we can improve it. Namely, I guessed formulae for the elementary particle masses in past, and they are evident in intranet. Best wishes
Roger Schlafly Hello, MustardGorilla. I like that you included Medieval Christianity as a reason FOR science forming as a Western program. Not for reasons of religious approval, but as an expression of fairness and historical insight about how things really happened. Christianity is traditionally pilloried as an enemy of science, with examples like Bruno and Galileo. Although there was indeed intolerance, the basic concept of a rational creator nourished the background supposition that the universe was a rational system that humans (minds "in the image of God," which btw is how Galileo himself argued it!) could study and figure out. Good work overall, too.
Also, would you (and anyone reading this) please take a look at my essay too, which attempts to disprove AI reductionism about minds. I use both a philosophical argument about existential knowledge (a sort of update of Descartes famous experiment) plus inferences from quantum mechanics. Thanks, and rem. again: this is the last day to rate essays!
Neil Bates Thanks. I expected to get some pushback about Christianity. Whatever you think about Bruno and Galileo, the net effect of Christianity on science was overwhelmingly positive.