John,
You wrote, "I didn't mean what is the next step after Newton. I mean that in this process of punctuated equilibrium, as it applies to physical theories of the universe, what initiates the point of punctuation, when the dominant paradigm has stabilized to the point of spinning its wheels, as many recognize the current state of affairs has reached?"
If what you say is true then the many, unfortunately, don't know how the mathematical model of self organized criticality -- the model that supports punctuated equilibria -- actually works. The normal global state of a system is stasis; periods of rapid change can't be recognized locally as system-changing episodes -- they are only out of equilibrium punctuations of a system state whose path is always toward equilibrium, and which remains metastable over its life in spite of the recurrence of what has been nicknamed the "avalanche effect."
This effect has been shown empirically even in self organized communication networks (Braha--Bar-Yam; Complexity, 2006) where shorter intervals of observation may demonstrate dramatic shifts in the hub of communication. Over the long term, however, the system shows hardly any change at all.
So where you are sitting, at this moment -- fretting over the sorry state of science as you see it and wishing for an avalanche of ideas that may or may not happen -- is but a tiny spot in the landscape of science and not even necessarily where the action really is.
Me: "What you say about about science, John, is simply not the way that science actually works in the real world. Scientists are generally a lot more patient and a lot less ambitious than you apparently think they should be."
You: "I'm not doubting you, but sometimes, playing it safe is not the key to success."
Neither is being reckless, even intellectually so. You seem to think that system-changing ideas come in flashes of insight unrelated to anything that came before. This is demonstrably untrue -- the projection of scientific explanations into unexplored territory begins where unexplained data end. For example, Hoyle's steady state cosmology was as much state-of-the-art as big bang theory, until the discovery (1965) of cosmic background radiation, which steady state cannot explain, and big bang can.
You: " ... five hundred years ago, the safe assumption would have been that giant cosmic gearwheels powered the motion of the stars, with the earth as the center of the universe."
And 3000 years ago, the movement of the sun would be described as Apollo driving his fiery chariot across the heavens. The evolution of our ideas, about how the cosmos works, does not happen all at once. It's rather arrogant to disparage the ancients and elevate our own knowledge to some special status.
(Quoted from Ellis:) " ... with the potential of the future continually becoming the certainty of the past;"
You: "It would seem that only in a classic world is the past certain. Relativistically, since every event is entirely contextual and dependant on the point of observation for its definition, past events are constantly receding ever further into the past and thus from any perspective in the present, are constantly in a state of flux. Any description of events, as they occurred, are subjectively dependent, why wouldn't this effect be compounded as the event recedes into the past?"
Your naive idea of past events receding linearly, is far from George Ellis' nonlinear potential. In the latter, not only is the objectivity of time's arrow locally preserved; events are not spatially separated in the predictable way that you imagine.
Me: "Spacetime is well grounded, however, in both theory and experiment."
You: "And we still use Newton to get men to the moon."
Would you prefer an M-16 over a flyswatter, when the object is to squash a fly?
Tom