Dear John,
It seems to me what you're really proposing is that 3D space, or the Universe--which we both agree constitutes all of reality--has absolute properties relating to motion, etc., of the things in it, and that time passes when those things move.
Aside from your thinking that this motion, etc., could actually be the cause of time's passage, I agree with this, inasmuch as I think of 3D space as being real and having certain such properties relating to its existence. In fact, I'd almost be willing to say that as long as we can agree that these properties conspire to produce space-time, as the well-ordered metical description of events that occur in the Universe as it exists, then I'm less concerned about whether the measured passage of time should be chalked up to motion and all that, or absolute passage. That's not to say that I'm not interested in what the actual cause is, but that simply for practical purposes I'm glad that you seem to agree with me that the Universe must have some fundamental property that leads to consistent temporal passage, so that it's not all just willy-nilly.
But with that said, I'm only *almost* willing to agree that the motion of things through the Universe would cause time to pass in this very consistent, uniform manner, because I just can't get past feeling that nothing could ever move about and conspire to be the cause of anything if it didn't *exist* in the first place. And that sense of existence--of things in space simply enduring, regardless of whether they *remain* (in time) in one place--is what I see as a fundamental aspect of change, rest, the passage of time, and the occurrence of all events.
I'm not thinking of this as some vector projected into some aethereal dimension, but simply as an absolute passage of time that's taking place everywhere throughout space consistently, and in such a manner that the local passage of time that occurs when things move about through space in time, is less than the absolute passage, in a geometrically well-defined way.
If you think of the barograph example in my last essay, there really isn't any vector of flow through anything, but just an ordered duration of space and everything in it. And the way space-time fits into that picture, as it's being physically traced out onto a sheet of paper that scrolls along beneath the barograph pens, is very much like your idea of an uncertain future becoming a certain past. If we strip away all the unreal paper, etc., in that second dimension, leaving only the things that exist in space, there's no vector; there's just space, existing, with time passing in an ordered way.
But anyway, I think you do agree with most of this. The only difference that I'm seeing is that I think things first of all have to exist if they could ever move, etc., whereas you're wanting the motion of things to be the fundamental cause of their existence. It seems like a real chicken-and-egg problem to me.
Cheers,
Daryl