Dear John,

Wow! What an essay.

I would like to imagine a world where Laplace's demon could answer all questions about the future in that world. So, say the world worked like a fractal. It was generated by a simple algorithm, so it started with a single number in space and then rapidly expanded with ever more numbers added, becoming ever more complex. Say it not only generated new numbers in space but also changed the already created numbers. There would then be space full of change, a little like our own world.

If someone asked a question about how the fractal would look in the future, the demon could then answer it by restarting the algorithm in another place and just running it at a much faster speed than the original. It would need to be assumed that the demon, its model, and the person asking the question would all need to be outside the original fractal. Also, that there was constant creation in that world, so no unitarity!

I only mention this, as I think there is an interesting argument to say that Quantum Mechanics could be reinterpreted as a simple algorithm expanding the Universe in a fractal like way (see my essay if you are interested).

Thanks for a beautifully written, clear and thought-provoking essay, with a very well-argued conclusion.

All the very best,

David

    Thank you for the very kind words, Flavio!

    I agree that information being "inaccessible in principle" is a useful concept, and that one must be mindful that determinism vs indeterminism may not be black and white. However the universe really 'is', there are ample restrictions on what we can know about it...whether it's better to describe the universe as it 'is' or in terms of what we can ever possibly know about it is an interesting question. I don't pretend to know the answer!

    Great point about classical vs quantum mechanics. I really enjoyed discussion along these lines in your essay, and never thought before about the strong metaphysical assumption that observables really 'are' determined to infinite precision in classical mechanics, though our ability to measure them is restricted. Perhaps they are not determined to infinite precision. It's hard to imagine a way to tell the difference. Still, which formulation is more useful in practice is amenable to debate/discussion, I think.

    Thanks for the paper link, I'll take a look at it.

    Dear John,

    I enjoyed a lot to read your essay. Laplace demon is hunting since a long time. I hoped your essay could help me, to get rid of him. One good thing is, that you made him physical and took him a few of his superpowers. But by submitting him to the epistemic restriction we as human have, or any physical object, that can transmit or gather information, does not chase away the metaphysical demon. In fact, how you describe the relation between, what can known and what is, is in the traditional realist fashion.

    To chase a way the metaphysical demon, one has to justify, why epistemic notions should matter at all for the understanding of our universe.

    I like how you equip your physical demon. Von Weizsäcker, who wanted to construct a time dependent formal logic, took an operational approach to formal languages and mathematics. While animals instinctively react (take action) on sensory inputs, humans can imagine the actions they take. He constructs the meaning of propositions as imagination of possible actions. This - I think - is what is described in your points 1 to 4 for the equipment for the demon.

    Von Weizsäcker's approach does, in my opinion, bridge the somehow artificial gap between the meaning of concepts of a formal language and the 'concepts of the physical world'. This because the formal concepts depend on the laws themselves. I belief this could chase out the metaphysical demon.

    How such a world without this demon could look like is described in my essay.

    Luca

      Dear John,

      I enjoyed your very readable demon essay.

      I liked the way you first introduce the demon as LaPlace did as an omnipotent being, the considered the consequences of the demon inside the Universe and then eventually 'humanised' the demon and consider what we can eventually learn given more time and analysis of future experiments.

      I also discuss the demon in my essay, albeit in a much briefer fashion, and draw some conclusions as well, before invoking Maxwell's demon as well. I hope you enjoy my angles, as much as I enjoyed yours!

      Best Regards,

      Lockie Cresswell

        Hi John!

        This was a very nice essay! I really enjoyed thinking about several aspects of Lapace's Demon, and the modified demon you talk about here. I think you're exactly on-point, even if all of our current math and physics can be programmed into such an entity, there are still tons of things that are unknowable.

        I wonder, have you thought about the limit of the size of Laplace's Demon to where it is the size of the entire universe? What is the universe itself is Laplace's Demon? Personally, I think this limit would imply the universe does indeed "know" everything about itself, and is likely a boring trivial result. But, then working backward from size, what is the demon was the universe minus one atom? How would it change things?

        Cheers!

        Alyssa

          John,

          Hope you have time to check mine out before the deadline: https://fqxi.org/community/forum/topic/3396

          Jim Hoover.

            Thanks for reading! Great question. My inclination is to believe that it would take a computer as big as the universe to effectively simulate the universe in complete detail---as you said, the universe should 'know' everything about itself! But I don't know how much power a universe-sized demon would lose for each atom you take away. You could say it loses a 'small' amount, but how do you define small here? What's the critical number of atoms or particles you have to take away in order for it to be effectively incapacitated (like a demonic ship of Theseus)? Hard to say.

            Although I didn't specify in the essay, I think in any case that it's more interesting to speculate about a demon whose size is small compared to the universe overall. Partly because it's hard to imagine such a demon doing experiments, thinking (is its ability to think hampered somehow by the finite speed of light?), and communicating with us. And partly because I was thinking about the demon as an idealization of our own struggle to understand the universe.

            Thank you for reading, and for the kind comments! That's an interesting idea. What do you mean by saying that the demon/its model/the person should be outside the original fractal? To me, it's important to imagine that all of them are a part of the universe, as we are. Given your idea about a fractal-like universe, what can a demon inside the fractal know?

            Thanks for reading! Yes, your essay was very interesting.

            Thanks for reading! Interesting, I've never heard of Von Weizsäcker (I don't know much about philosophy, to be honest). I like your essay, but I am still a bit confused about how we can know whether a given theory is semantically closed.

            Dear John J. Vastola!

            Thank you for the beautiful and informative article. We hope you will be happy with our message. We put up 10 points for your essay. You described the problem both scientifically and poetically, but we want to note an important circumstance. We believe that a crazy demon may not help us in the world game. But there is a difference between the fundamental laws (rules of the game) and the laws governing this chess game. The latter are clearly algorithmic, which means they are volatile.

            We wish you successful research!

            Truly yours,

            Pavel Poluian and Dmitry Lichargin,

            Siberian Federal University.

              In the fractal world I suggested, that is a world constructed from scratch using a basic algorithm, if you looked at the world from outside, you would see people and other things in it. They might appear to have free will, but all their actions would be determined by the algorithm. We might see the demon within the same world, and we might see that he's appeared to discover the algorithm and has started running his own algorithms - but again all his actions would be the result of the original algorithm, which would be giving an illusion of free will and purpose. The demon might be seen, in his part of the fractal, building a world from scratch using the same rules as the fractal does, but, because his actions and their speed are actually all actions of the basic algorithm, he can't outpace it and, therefore, can't do the predicting.

              There's another problem for the demon: if he wants to build a complete model of the world, it has to include his model, which also needs to include that model and so on. It's like building a model village inside the village itself. The model has to contain a model, which has to contain a model and so on indefinitely. The model then has to have infinite parts which is impossible.

              So, as part of the fractal he can't have complete knowledge. However, if somehow, with his demon like nature, he wasn't part of the original fractal, i.e., he wasn't under control of the basic algorithm, he could then build his own fractal, and if it was identical to the original but just ran faster, he could predict exactly everything that the original would do in the future.

              Thanks again for a lovely essay.

              P.S. Thanks also for taking the time and effort to read my essay. What you said really made me think. I've posted a reply which I hope you will also find interesting.

              Dear John,

              you present an intriguing approach, and choose an original way to attack the omniscience of Laplacian demons---I have not previously come across the Reeh-Schlieder theorem used in this way. To me, your discussion of what can be known, what answers can be obtained suggests an approach to doing science that's in a sense top-down: you formulate constraints regarding knowability, and then figure out the laws supporting such a structure. This is similar to how you can formulate thermodynamics in terms of what sorts of machines can be actually built---propositions like 'there is no perpetuum mobile of the first kind' could find their analogues in 'there is no universal prediction machine', or something more precisely elaborated. I think that's an intriguing direction to pursue!

              As for the knowability of the world, you dismiss the idea that we understand what we understand, because that's just the understandable part---and in a sense, you're right that it's trivial. But I think that a part of this is that certain problems allow for radical abstraction, while others don't---at least, not without some loss of the original question's spirit.

              Consider Königsberg in the early 18th century. Immanuel Kant, on one of his clockwork walks, traverses the bustling city, perhaps exchanging greetings here, perhaps pausing a little there, maybe mulling over something intriguing he'd read in a recent publication of David Hume there, walking back and forth across the famous bridges. Can he traverse the city without crossing a bridge twice?

              The problem, of course, has a simple solution---and for that solution, we practically disregard everything about the tale above. We need not mention Kant, the way he walks, what he thinks, or even Königsberg, at all: we can simply translate the problem into a simple question in graph theory, and answer it in the negative. The crux is that nothing is lost in the translation: the graph theoretical problem models the question about Kant's morning walk exactly. The mathematical description is not merely an approximation, it is precisely equivalent---this is something sometimes missed by those who claim that mathematical laws in physics have only an approximate validity.

              Hence, problems of this kind are simply, and exactly, solvable with finite, and radically limited, resources. Many problems are of this kind, or sufficiently close; but others may not be. So I'm not quite sure I agree that we 'have a working framework for understanding literally everything'. In fact, it often seems to me that we have a framework for only the really easy problems---what the world is made of, how the simplest things interact with each other. Physics, chemistry, biology---not to diminish the success of either, but I think in a way that's the easy part. The hard questions are, at this point, not even precisely formulated---what is good and right, how to live a good life, how to build a just society, and so on. I think there remains much we don't know about any of these issues.

              But then again, we've only been at this for ~10,000 years, give or take, so it shouldn't really surprise us that we're only getting started at the difficult stuff.

              You also seem to kinda renege on this point when you describe the behavior of people as 'effectively random'. In fact, it's very far from random---even in a technical sense: if you ask a person to come up with a random sequence, it's fairly simple to write a prediction algorithm that takes past performance to predict the next number with significantly greater than chance success. It's something we rely on every day: many of our interactions with our fellow humans are predictable to at least some degree; we typically know what to expect of our peers. There are surprises---more or less pleasant ones---but they're surprising precisely because they're relatively rare, and typically still fall within a fairly narrow domain of human behavior. Somebody might deny you a request you thought reasonable, but they won't strip naked and start flinging poo. (Unless you happen to be stranded in a YouTube-comment thread, perhaps.)

              Finally, I think the notion that whether we should think of something as true depends on its verifiability is somewhat difficult. First of all, it's required for verifiability to be meaningful that there are independent truths to be verified---if you predict that A, and observe that A, for this to be a verification it must've been the case that A, whether or not you made the prediction or experiment to actually find out that A. This holds even in cases where you can't actually carry out either the prediction or the experiment itself.

              Additionally, it's vulnerable to skeptical arguments. You could always be just a brain in a vat, being fed appropriate sensory data. You can never exclude this hypothesis, and hence, never carry out a strict verification; but then, we would never be able to speak of anything being strictly true or false.

              But these are minor points that I feel deserve some additional consideration. Your overall approach is, I think, a valuable and interesting one, and I'm happy to have discovered your essay before voting closes. Wish you best of luck in this contest!

              Cheers

              Jochen

                Dear John,

                Your essay has a lot of contents to be tied by the concept of Laplace's demon. I have two fundamental questions on your essay.

                Under the assumption that Laplace's demon is itself part of the universe, what physics laws is Laplace's demon subject to?

                In physics, our theory is experimentally verifiable. This seems to be the fundamental concept of laws of physics. Then, how to verify your assumptions on Laplace's demon?

                Best wishes,

                Yutaka

                  Dear John,

                  I enjoyed your essay, which combines in a spectacular way science with poetry and philosophy. I liked how you connected the nonlinear dynamics with quantum mechanics. I particularly liked the discussion of the Reeh-Schlieder theorem. You remarked very well how a quantum Laplace daemon would fail to verify what predicts, but also how he (and us, of course), can do the next best thing. Things are not that dark with these limitations, especially if you see the bright side, which is that of allowing us freedom and an open future. I wish you success in the contest!

                  Cheers,

                  Cristi

                    Thank you for reading, and thank you for your very thoughtful comments. It's been a great pleasure, as part of this essay contest, to throw out some ideas and see people really engage with them (and vice versa).

                    I'm very sympathetic to your point about my 'we focus on understanding the understandable/easy problems' comment. I think that, although many non-scientists may disagree, it's somehow easier to come up with and understand the standard model of particle physics than it is to reliably understand people (or live a good life, or build a just society, or any of a number of important problems). Lots of real life problems are 'messy', while problems in physics/chemistry/biology/math/similar subjects can often be formulated in 'clean', abstracted, and well-posed forms. And for these messy problems, it's harder to know whether you're 'right', or you're just using arguments and/or data to fool yourself.

                    In spite of this, I will stick with the (admittedly strong) claim that we do have a working framework for understanding literally everything---although 'working' may be the operative word. Without a convincing alternative, people are trying to use science-like approaches to understand pretty much everything, from how human societies should be organized, to how to live a good life, to how to cook tasty food. I can't think of anything that isn't amenable to some combination of doing experiments, modeling, and pure thought/computation. Many of these endeavors outside of the 'easy' stuff (e.g. physics, chemistry, biology) are still young, like you say, but I'm optimistic that they will be fairly successful. I concede that my view here reeks of scientism, but I'm okay with that.

                    You're right that I was a little imprecise with my statement regarding human behavior being random. I've heard of the same 'ask a person to generate a random number' experiments too, and I find them very fascinating. It's funny that we think 1 is a less random number than 6 (if asked to give a number between 1 and 10), but I admit to making the same mistake myself sometimes. It's true that lots of human behavior is predictable, which is one of the empirical facts that allows us to live a relatively stable life without going crazy, but I will maintain that enough of it isn't for my statement to be reasonable. You can be relatively confident your friend won't strip naked and start flinging poo, but never completely confident (psychotic breaks can and do happen, for example)---and that's the point I was trying to make, albeit ineloquently.

                    Lastly, I agree that the truth/verifiability relationship is difficult, and think you make some excellent points. I do not claim to know the answer or to be able to resolve these issues, but I do think it's fun and productive to bring them up and discuss them.

                    Thank you again for the comments (and kudos on your thoughtful essay)! The intellectual back and forth is something I treasure.

                    Thanks for reading, and for the compliments. Interesting point, I'll have to read your essay to learn more.

                    Thanks for reading! Assuming Laplace's demon is part of the universe, it is subject to all the same physical laws we are, e.g. it cannot communicate information faster than the speed of light, it can only measure observables (and not things like wave function values), it has finite memory and computational speed, and so on.

                    Of course, there is no way to verify my assumptions regarding Laplace's demon, because Laplace's demon is not real; it's just a helpful device for thinking about what is (in principle) possible. But on the other hand, I think it's hard to reasonably argue that a being part of the universe could violate some of the restrictions I mentioned (e.g. communicating faster than light speed, measuring things that aren't observable, having infinite memory and computational speed). Laplace's demon isn't a theory so much as a tool that helps us think about the consequences of our existing theories.

                    Thank you for reading, and for your very kind words! I agree that these limitations are not cause for pessimism---it's amazing that we can understand so much about the universe, given all these obstacles in our way. The next best thing to knowing everything really isn't so bad.

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