Hi Rob,
Really glad to see you here. I appreciate that you're one who can always be counted on to wade into the foundational details.
The Fourier transform is popular I expect, because it makes a lot of calculation easier. In fact, the same applies to the complex plane in general -- I expect that some quantum theorists might take the Hilbert space and the quantum theory formalisms associated with it, as something special and perhaps even physical, but no mathematician is likely to make that mistake.
The algebraically closed property of the complex plane, however, *is* important to any spacetime geometry -- because we can get nonlinear functions from fewer assumptions, and still recover the real valued numbers that you demand for real physical results. Personally, I find the primary importance of analysis to physical applications is in the realization that all real functions of a real valued variable are continuous. This is critical to any constructive theory of complete measurement functions, such as Joy Christian's, whether the theory applies to physics or is only mathematical. There cannot be any representation of a probability space that creates a gap between everywhere simply connected points.
So I strongly agree with you that -- as you imply -- *if* probability measure is a *foundational assumption* of how nature works, then getting rid of complex numbers will leave only classical probability.
And that's what Lucien Hardy is getting at, too -- he's enumerated five axioms of which four incorporate both classical and quantum probability, and one which obviates continuous function classical physics at the foundational level.
You quote from Hardy's abstract:
"This work provides some insight into the reasons why quantum theory is the way it is. For example, it explains the need for complex numbers..."
And after arguing that quantum probability measures do not require Fourier transforms and therefore complex analysis, you say:
"Let me restate this more bluntly:
"Histograms are used to 'measure' probability distributions.
"Physicists have unwittingly fabricated a mathematical structure for quantum theory, that is identical to a histogram. Consequently, the theory only produces descriptions of probability distributions of measurements, rather than specific measurements, as in classical theories, which do not construct histograms."
I agree! It is only by the sum of histories and normalization that one recovers unitarity, in order to make quantum results coherent and mathematically compatible with observed outcomes.
In lecture notes on the first law of thermodynamics the author is careful to point out right away that "The value of a state function is independent of the history of the system." A continuous change of state (measurement function continuous from the initial condition) cannot be cumulative when there is no probability measure to normalize; the usefulness of a histogram in this case is limited to showing that unitary evolution is scale invariant -- that is, by both classical and quantum predictions, correlated values are independent of the time at which they were measured. The difference between the probabilistic measure and the continuous-function measure is that by assuming probability on a measure space and normalizing it, one gets only what one assumes true. The continuous measurement function (Joy's) gets the true result by a frequentist statistical analysis, independent of assuming some probability on the closed interval [0,1].
All best,
Tom