Christian,
Good essay. Informative, interesting, entertaining and probably important, though by the end I was desperate for a paragraph break! I sympathise on the matter of judging as the apparent criteria used often seems at odds with fqxi's mission statement & raisen d'etre.
I said 'probably' above as in my main world of astronomy, astrophysics and observational cosmology a supermassive black hole has long been an active galactic nucleus (AGN). These have increasingly been closely studied with billions worth of instruments in all ways and now have far better understood dynamics. Smaller versions at stellar scale are typified by the Crab Nebula core.
I thus have difficulties with theoretical treatments of 'black holes' seemingly ignoring recent findings. It's a little like theory developed on a different planet long ago! The accretion disc, toroidal counter-wound acceleration paths, precessing cusps and opposing helical collimated jet outflow structures I'm familiar with in some detail (even from the 1980's Rees etc!) makes the theoretical objects still 'guessed' about now seem rather alien or from some dream!
I try hard to find greater consistency between theory and observation, but suspect AE was correct; the original conception doesn't exist! As you know I've published on the part the mechanism seems to play in galaxy evolution. I hoped to find more convergence than I did, but then much of the theoretical description is beyond me so I'm sure more exists. Can you help there?
Having said that, scoring criteria don't include 'agreement' on approach or theory so that takes nothing away from the value and quality of your work and essay.
On the matter of playing dice; if you interact at the equator of a spinning body and had to decide if the spin is clockwise or counter clockwise, how reliable would you answer be? Is that not a universal truth of momentum transfer?
Very well done, and glad you were inspired to enter. I had to smile about your ('pain in the ar**) on waking. Best of luck in the judging.
Peter